There is a growing chorus calling today’s AI surge the next dot-com bubble. Even well-known voices like Michael Burry, who predicted the 2008 housing crisis, have drawn the comparison. It sounds convincing at first, but the comparison breaks down quickly. And for long-term investors, understanding the difference is critical.

Here is the simple truth. This is not another 1999. The foundations are different. The companies are stronger. The sentiment is almost the opposite. If we misunderstand the environment, we risk reacting emotionally rather than investing with discipline and clarity.

FIRST, Valuations Then Were Built on Hope. Today They’re Built on Earnings

During the dot-com era, prices surged with little connection to actual business performance. Cisco is the clearest example. The stock price raced higher while projected earnings stayed relatively flat. That disconnect is one of the clearest signs of a bubble. Investors were buying possibility instead of profitability.

Now look at today’s AI leader, Nvidia. Its stock price has risen but so have its forward earnings per share. Revenue is expanding. Demand is accelerating. Profitability is growing at a historic pace. The price is being pulled higher by fundamentals, not by wishful thinking.

This distinction matters.

In the dot-com era, prices broke away from earnings.

In the AI cycle, prices and earnings rise together.

For long-term investors, this is not a minor detail. It is the difference between speculation and substance. When prices run ahead of earnings, gravity eventually pulls them back. The two lines always reconnect. Prices can sprint or stumble in the short term, but fundamentals set the pace over time. When prices rise because earnings rise, it is the fundamentals doing the work.

NEXT, The Nature of the Companies Is Entirely Different

The second difference is straightforward. The companies simply are not comparable.

During the dot-com era, a clever idea and a domain name were often enough to attract enormous capital. Pets.com is the classic example. It raised over $82 million during its IPO despite having no profits and no evidence that its model worked. It became famous before it became viable. Nine months later, Pets.com closed their virtual doors.

Now compare that with today.

The AI landscape today is nothing like that. The Magnificent Seven leading AI investment are among the most profitable companies ever created. Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla operate with financial strength that rivals entire industries. Together they have acquired more than 846 companies. Their revenue is diversified. Their moats are wide. Their infrastructure spans the globe. Their cash flow is massive.

This difference is not trivial.

Startups with untested ideas tend to burn cash, chase growth at any cost, and rely on investor optimism to stay alive. Established multi-trillion-dollar companies generate consistent profits, fund their own innovation, and can withstand economic shocks. They behave very differently.

The risks, opportunities, and outcomes are not comparable.

FINALLY, Sentiment Today Is Cautious, Not Euphoric

The most important difference may be psychological.

In the late 1990s, consumer sentiment reached historic highs. The University of Michigan index moved above 110. Confidence was overflowing. People believed prosperity would continue indefinitely. Alan Greenspan described the mood as irrational exuberance, and even that felt modest.

A 1999 Time magazine article reported workers quitting stable jobs to day-trade technology stocks. One story described a plumber who refused to fix a leaking pipe because he was too busy trading. That was the climate. Excitement replaced caution. Greed replaced discipline.

Today tells a different story

Consumer sentiment recently sat near 51, weaker than readings during the 2008 financial crisis. It reflects fear and uncertainty, not optimism. In hundreds of conversations advising investors during this season, not one person has pushed to increase equity exposure because of excitement about AI. Most express caution, not confidence.

This matters. Investor psychology often explains more about cycles than spreadsheets do.

Bubbles form when confidence outruns reality. Today, reality is outrunning confidence.

What we see today is not exuberance. It is skepticism.

What Investors Should Take Away

None of this means AI is risk-free. Markets never are. Technologies evolve. Leaders change. Expectations adjust. Some companies will thrive and others will fade. That is the natural rhythm of progress.

Some believe AI will reshape entire industries. Others expect only incremental change. No one knows for sure, and investors do not need perfect foresight to succeed. What they need is discipline, patience, and a strategy that holds up across many possible futures.

Periods like this tend to reward investors who rely on a thoughtful financial plan and avoid emotional decision making. Resiliency matters more than reaction.

At Human Investing, we help clients make clear, confident decisions in moments like this. We separate signal from noise. We keep your strategy rooted in your goals, not the market’s mood.

The biggest mistakes rarely come from missing a prediction. They come from acting too quickly. Our role is to walk with you through uncertainty and ensure your plan remains strong, thoughtful, and centered on what matters most to you.

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Sources:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/michael-burrys-next-big-short-an-inside-look-at-his-analysis-showing-ai-is-a-bubble.html

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/emea-investment-outlook-2025.pdf

https://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/08/business/technology-petscom-sock-puppet-s-home-will-close.html

Eric Balchunas

https://time.com/archive/6736122/day-trading-its-a-brutal-world/

Disclosure: This commentary is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment, tax, or legal advice. The views expressed are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no investment strategy can guarantee success or protect against loss. References to specific companies are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Human Investing is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

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Signed into law July 2025, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act brings a wave of tax changes including bigger deductions, new savings tools, and key incentives. Whether you're filing as an individual, managing a household, or running a business, understanding these updates is key to maximizing your benefits and minimizing surprises. Here’s what you need to know.

All U.S. taxpayers

The following provisions affect all U.S. Taxpayers with most taking effect for calendar year 2025, and a few scheduled to begin in 2026.

Tax Brackets Remain Unchanged

With the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), federal income tax brackets remain intact, and are set to be permanent for the future. The seven marginal rates continue to be:
10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, and 37%.
More importantly, these rates did not revert to their pre-2018 levels, which were generally higher for many income brackets. 

Bigger Standard Deductions for Everyone – Starting 2025

The OBBBA raises the standard deduction amounts across all filing statuses:

- Married Filing Jointly: $31,500 (up from $30,000)

- Single: $15,750 (up from $15,000)

- Head of Household: $23,625 (up from $22,500)

Charitable Giving for Non-Itemizers – Starting 2026

Under the new law, everyone is able to have a tax benefit for making charitable contributions.

If you normally don’t itemize your deductions during tax time you can now deduct your charitable contributions:

- Up to $2,000 for joint filers

- Up to $1,000 for others

Tip:  If you typically don’t itemize, there may be tax planning opportunities near year-end to move your charitable contributions into January 2026 to get a better tax benefit.

Clean Energy Incentives Update – Ending 2025

The 30% federal tax credit for residential solar and battery storage systems expires on December 31, 2025. To qualify, your system must be fully installed and operational by that date, there’s no grace period or retroactive eligibility. If your project is underway, be sure to complete it before year-end 2025 to claim the full credit.

Elimination of Federal Clean Vehicle Tax Credits – Ending September 2025

The federal tax credits for clean vehicles are being phased out earlier than expected. If you are planning to purchase an EV and qualify for the credit, you must do so by September 30, 2025 to claim it. These credits will not be renewed or extended under the new law.

Trump/MAGA Accounts – Starting 2025

These are new savings accounts for children, modeled after IRAs but designed specifically for minors. Each child born between Jan. 1st, 2025 and Jan. 1st, 2029 will automatically receive an account with a $1,000 government contribution to help jumpstart long-term savings.

Contributions

Parents can contribute up to $5,000 per year until the child turns 18. Funds must be invested in ETFs and grow tax-free for qualified uses like education, a first home, or starting a business.

Distributions

Funds are partially accessible at age 18 for qualified expenses, with full access at age 25. After age 30, funds can be used for any purpose without penalty. Early, non-qualified withdrawals before age 30 are subject to tax and a 10% penalty.

Estate & Gift Tax Exemption – Starting 2026

Before the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the estate and gift tax exemption was set to drop from $13.99 million to $7.2 million per person in 2026 due to the TCJA sunset, OBBBA permanently raises it to $15 million per person starting in 2026, indexed for inflation.

For taxpayers making $500k or less

SALT Deduction – Starting 2025

Under the OBBBA, if you have an Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) under $500,000 you are eligible to deduct up to $40,000 in state and local taxes, including income tax or sales tax, and property taxes from your federal taxable income. This expanded cap is in effect for five years through 2029 and offers a significant increase from the previous $10,000 limit.  For many Oregonians, this is seen as a win, with Oregon being a high-income tax state.

Tip: Careful planning can help maximize this deduction. To take full advantage of the increased limit, consider:

1. Paying your full 2025 property tax bill within the 2025 tax year, if feasible.

2. Making your Q4 estimated state income tax payment due January 15, 2026 by December 31, 2025. This ensures it counts toward your 2025 deduction cap of $40,000 and helps preserve the full benefit if your AGI is under $500,000.

Taxpayers with AGI over $500,000 can still deduct state and local taxes, but the $40,000 cap is reduced by 30% of the amount exceeding $500,000, with a minimum deduction of $10,000. At $600,000 AGI, the deduction is reduced by $30,000, bringing it down to the $10,000 floor. Note: This effectively creates a high-income tax bracket between $500K and $600K (45.5%) if you are itemizing. These rules remain in effect through 2029.

Child Tax Credit (CTC) – Starting 2025

The CTC has increased to $2,200 per qualifying child through 2028, after which it reverts to $2,000; the credit is nonrefundable and phases out for AGI above $400,000 MFJ and $200,000 for others.

Enhanced Deductions for Taxpayers Age 65+ - Starting 2025

A new $6,000 bonus standard deduction is available for taxpayers aged 65 and older, but it begins to phase out at AGI of $150,000 MFJ ($75,000 Single) and phases out completely once above $250,000 MFJ ($175,000 Single).

Tip: Careful planning around Roth conversions is recommended, as such conversions increase AGI and could reduce or eliminate eligibility for the bonus deduction. 

Tip: To help remain under these thresholds, taxpayers aged 70½ or older can make a Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD) from their IRA to a qualified charity. This counts towards their annual Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) while excluding the amount from taxable income, and preserving eligibility for deductions under OBBBA.

Car Loan Interest Deduction – Starting 2025

If you purchased a new car with financing anytime in 2025, you may qualify for a deduction of up to $10,000 if the following apply:

• Your adjusted gross income (AGI) is below $250,000

• The vehicle was brand new and assembled in the United States

• You purchased the car (not leased it)

This deduction applies only to interest paid on the loan and is designed to support domestic manufacturing and personal vehicle ownership.

For Business Owners

Section 179 & Bonus Depreciation – Starting 2025

- 100% bonus depreciation is back (for assets placed in service after January 19, 2025) and is now made permanent by the Act.

- Expense limit: $2.5M

- Phaseout threshold: $4M

Qualified Business Income (QBI) Deduction – Starting 2026

- OBBBA proposed raising the QBI deduction to 23%, but the final law kept it at 20%. However, it increased the phaseout thresholds to $150,000 for MFJ and $75,000 for others up from $100,000 and $50,000, respectively. These changes will take effect in 2026.

- $400 minimum deduction if you have at least $1,000 in business net income.

Employer Student Loan Help – Starting 2026

- Employers can contribute up to $5,250/year tax-free toward paying off student loans. Limitations may apply.

Excess Business Losses – Starting 2026

- Cap: $500K (joint) / $250K (others).

- Losses above this become net operating losses and are carried forward to future years.

The OBBBA reshapes the tax landscape for nearly every American. Whether you're a parent saving for your child’s future, a retiree managing income thresholds, or a business owner investing in growth, the new law offers expanded opportunities and new complexities. With many provisions taking effect in 2025 and 2026, now is the time to review your financial plan, optimize deductions, and take advantage of available tools.

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Disclosure: The information presented herein is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended to be construed as personalized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws and financial regulations are subject to change, and the implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act may vary based on individual circumstances. Please consult a qualified tax professional or financial advisor before making any decisions based on this content. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC registered investment adviser.

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With each presidential election comes a slew of new tax proposals and changes that are sometimes difficult to decode. News outlets mix proposed and enacted laws, furthering the stress that comes with determining how they will affect your taxes.

The biggest takeaway from Biden's new tax law proposals is that those who earn under $400,000 of income per year should not expect to face an increase in taxes. In fact, they are likely to see more tax credits that will help reduce their tax liability. However, those who make above $400,000 could be significantly affected by several of the proposed tax law changes.

Below is an outline of the administration’s current proposals that may become laws in the coming tax seasons based on your yearly income.

for THOSE WHO MAKE BELOW $400,000

What’s been enacted: The Dependent Care Tax Credit.

Eligible childcare expenses increased from $3,000 to $8,000 ($6,000 to $16,000 for multiple dependents) and the maximum reimbursement rate has increased from 35% to 50% for a maximum credit of $8,000. It is refundable for the 2021 tax year. If you pay for childcare services in 2021 for children 12 and under, you can claim those expenses in tax credits up to $16,000.

The Child Tax Credit has temporarily increased from $2,000 to $3,000 per child ages 6-17, and $3,600 per child aged 0-5 for the 2021 tax year. There will also be monthly payments made from July to December 2021. Half the total credit amount will be paid in advance with the monthly payments, while the other half will be claimed on the tax return that you will file next year. For example, if a single filer with an AGI of $60,000 had one 13-year-old child, they would receive $250 per month from July to December and $1,500 as a credit on their 2021 tax return.

The increase (i.e., the extra $1,000 or $1,600) is gradually phased-out for joint filers with an AGI of $150,000 or more, head-of-household filers with an AGI of $112,500 or more, and all other taxpayers with an AGI of $75,000 or more. At $440,000, couples will phase out of the tax credit entirely.

What’s been proposed: First-Time Homebuyer’s Tax Credit reinstated for up to $15,000 in refundable credits.

You may not have owned a home within the last 3 years to qualify for this credit. You must make no more than 160% of the area median income, and the home’s purchase price must be no more than 110% of the area median purchase price. You could claim this credit for primary residences purchased after Dec. 31, 2020.

for Those Who Make Above $400,000

What’s been proposed: Increased income tax

Currently, the top individual income tax rate is set at 37% on earnings above $622,050 ($518,400 for those filing single). The new proposed rate is 39.6% for earnings above $400,000.

What’s been proposed: The 6.2% Social Security payroll tax on income above $400,000.

For 2021, the maximum limit on earnings for withholding of Social Security tax is $142,800. This proposed tax law would result in the 6.2% tax continuing on earned income over $400,000 in addition to the 6.2% tax on earned income up to $142,800. The income between $142,800 and $400,000 would not be subject to this tax. For example, if $450,000 is earned, $50,000 will be taxed at 6.2% resulting in $3,100 paid in SS tax on top of original cap of $8,853.60.

What’s been proposed: Long-term capital gains and qualified dividends be taxed at a rate of 43.4% on income above $1,000,000.

Long-term capital gains above $501,600 ($445,850 for those filing single) is currently taxed at 20%. In addition, they are proposing the elimination of the step-up in basis for transferred assets.

What’s been proposed: Restoration of the limitation on itemized deductions (ie. mortgage interest, charitable contributions, property taxes, etc.) for taxable income above $400,000.

This means your itemized deduction amount would be reduced by the lesser of 3% of AGI in excess of $400,000 or 80% of your itemized deductions. The state and local tax deduction limit of $10,000 could also be removed, allowing for additional deductions in state and local taxes paid above $10k. For example, a person has $750,000 of taxable income, and their itemized deductions total $75,000. 3% of their taxable income above $400,000 = $10,500, 80% of itemized deductions = 60,000. Since the 3% calculation is the lesser of the two, their itemized deduction amount of $75,000 is then reduced/lowered by $10,500, resulting in $64,500 of itemized deductions.

What’s been proposed: Pass-through deductions removed for taxpayers earning more than $400,000.

For business owners of a Sole Proprietorship, Partnership, S-Corporation, and certain trusts and estates, the Section 199A pass-through deduction for qualified businesses could be up to 20%. The maximum deduction is the lesser of 20% of an owner’s QBI, or 20% of taxable income, excluding any net capital gains. If it were to pass, this deduction would no longer be available if the taxpayers net income were above $400k.

What’s been proposed: Estate and Gift Tax exemption rates for assets may be brought back to 2009 rates.

For 2021, the unified federal gift and estate tax exemption is $11.7 million per individual. The tax rate on cumulative lifetime gifts in excess of the exemption is a flat 40% (applicable to taxable amounts above $1 million made while still alive). The estate tax exemption for Married Filing Jointly (2009): $7,000,000. For those filing Single (2009): $3,500,000. The maximum gift tax rate (2009): 45%

BUSINESS AND CORPORATE TAXATION

What’s been proposed: Increased corporate income tax from 21% to 25-28%.

While this may not directly affect your taxes, it may affect any assets you have in company stocks or potential dividends depending on how the corporation decides to deal with the increase in tax.

What’s been proposed: Minimum tax on corporations with $100 million or more in book income.

Corporations would be taxed on the greater of their regular corporate income tax rate or have a 15% minimum tax imposed on them.

It is important to remember that all proposed tax law changes would need to be reviewed and enacted by Congress in order to become official tax law. All proposed law could potentially be revised or eliminated.

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