Posts tagged will kellar
Hi Ground Episode 8: Sports Cards, Jerseys, and Serious Money
 

E-mail us your questions, comments, and your childhood attic finds: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 8 show notes

Part 1: Part 1: Collectibles as an Asset Class

  • Post, J.J. “Joe Montana Super Bowl XXIV jersey fetches record price” ESPN, 13 August 2026 [Article]

  • Holder, Larry. “What’s working in the sports collectibles world: Industry leaders share what they’re seeing” The Athletic, 6 August 2026 [Article]

  • Burrows, Benjamin. “CardVault by Tom Brady adds investors including Aaron Judge, Jay-Z, Connor McDavid” The Athletic, 13 August 2026 [Article]

Part 2: Local Real Estate Updates

  • U.S. Bank. U.S. Bank 2026 Wealth Report, 2026 [Report]

 

Part 3: Local Recs

  • The Alley Cards and Collectibles, Lake Oswego, Oregon [Link]

  • E.Z. Orchards, Salem, Oregon [Link]

 
 

Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

 

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Hi Ground Episode 7: Gen-Z's Retirement Plan? Place Your Bets
 

E-mail us your questions, comments, and bad sports bet breaks: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 7 show notes

Part 1: Sports Betting Rush

  • Song, Zijia and Amponsah, Michelle. “Gen Z Is Moving Money From Stocks to Sports Betting in Wealth Plans” Bloomberg, 12 August 2026 [Article]

  • Bloomberg Originals. “Why Gen Z Is Gambling With Its Future” YouTube, uploaded by Bloomberg Originals, 10 July 2026 [Video]

  • Northwestern Mutual. “Planning & Progress Study 2026” Northwestern Mutual, 2026 [Report]

 

Part 2: Becoming a 401(k) Millionaire

  • Picchi, Aimee. “Sturdy stock market mints a record number of 401(k) millionaires” CBS News, 4 September 2026 [Article]

  • Fuhrmans, Vanessa. “American Workers Are Staying Put” Wall Street Journal, 9 September 2026 [Article]

  • Human Investing Retirement Contribution by Decade Calculator [Link]

  • Becoming a 401(K) Millionaire by Peter Fisher [Link]

 

Part 3: Local Recs

  • Swan Island Dahlias in Canby, OR [Link]

  • Hood to Coast Relay [Link]

 
 

Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

 

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Hi Ground Episode 6: Time to Nerd Out. Bonds Are Having A Moment
 

E-mail us your questions, comments, and if you have a blue polo too: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 6 show notes

Part 1: Why Are Bonds Acting Up?

  • Goldfarb, Sam and Rubin, Richard. “Bonds Are Getting Hammered, and Wall Street Says the Rout Won’t End Anytime Soon” Wall Street Journal, 18 August 2026 [Article]

Part 2: Where Do Bonds Fit?

  • Kellar, Will. “Managing Your Finances With The Three Bucket Approach” Human Investing Journal, 10 June 2025 [Article]

 

Part 3: Parking ‘Safe’ Dollars

  • Gottfried, Miriam. “Wealth Management Has a $3 Trillion Problem: Investors Are Keeping Too Much Cash” Wall Street Journal, 12 August 2026 [Article]

 
  • Damodaran, Aswath. “Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate and Gold.” Stern School of Business at New York University. 1 August 2026. [Database]

  • Chilkoti, Avantika and Kruger, Daniel. “Some Investors Had Hunch Yields Were About to Fall” Wall Street Journall, 9 June 2019 [Article]

 

Part 4: Local Recs

  • Portland Annual Swift Watch [Link]

  • LPGA The Standard Classic [Link]

 
 

Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

 

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Hi Ground Episode 5: The Economy, Staying Balanced, and Hot Dogs?
 

E-mail us your questions, comments, and hot dog stories: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 5 show notes

Part 1: The Economy vs. Stock Market

  • Heard on the Streets Staff. “Markets Rally on Surprise U.S. Job Losses” Wall Street Journal, 7 August 2026 [Article]

  • Mutikani, Lucia. “US suffers unexpected job losses in July, markets dial back rate hike expectations” Reuters, 7 August 2026 [Article]

  • Michael Burry 2023 “Sell” [Link]

  • Chart: S&P 500 % Change Over Previous 5-years

 

Part 2: $100 Hot Dogs & Investing Behavior

  • Chandler, Adam. “The Rise of the $100 Hot Dog” Wall Street Journal, 8 August 2026 [Article]

  • Lake, Sydney. “Costco CEO promises the $1.50 hot dog isn’t going away: The price will not change as long as I’m around” Fortune, 4 July 2026 [Article]

  • Understanding ERISA Diversification [Link]

  • “The Real Cost of Your Morning Coffee” Human Investing, 22 May 2015 [Article]

Part 3: Local Recs

  • Hot Mama Salsa Tortilla Chips [Link]

  • Farmer Johns Produce & Nursery, McMinnville OR [Link]

 
 

Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

 

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Quarterly Economic Update: The Market Beneath the Market
 

If you had told me at the beginning of the year that the seven largest companies would underperform, inflation would remain stubborn, tariffs would add pressure to prices, another interest-rate hike would become a real possibility, and conflict would disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, I would have guessed the stock market would be down. 

That would have been a reasonable guess….it also would have been wrong. 

Through July, the S&P 500 has gained roughly 10% including dividends, despite an economic backdrop that seemed to hint otherwise. It’s a reminder that the future rarely unfolds exactly as we think it will. Markets have a way of surprising both optimists and pessimists.  

That brings us to one of the more interesting stories unfolding beneath the surface this year. 

A Different Kind of Market 

For the past several years, the story of the U.S. stock market was largely the story of seven companies: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla. Together, they are often referred to as the “Magnificent Seven,” or simply the “Mag 7.” 

In 2023, the Magnificent Seven gained approximately 76%, while the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 returned roughly 11%. In 2024, the Mag 7 gained another 48%, compared with approximately 14% for the rest of the index. 

Compounded over those two years, the Magnificent Seven appreciated roughly 160%, while the remaining 493 companies of the S&P 500 gained about 27%.

These returns were supported by business success. The companies delivered impressive earnings, benefited from the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence, and established themselves as leaders in some of the world’s most important industries. As a result, this relatively small group accounted for a significant share of the market’s gains.  

This year, something important has changed. The market has continued to move higher, but this time the gains have come from a much wider range of companies. Smaller companies generally have outperformed large companies, and international markets have outperformed large companies in the US. 

The market has continued to move forward, but it hasn’t needed the same seven companies to carry it. 

Why Broader Participation Matters 

A market supported by more companies is generally healthier than one carried by only a handful of names. Broader participation means the market is less dependent on the ongoing success of the same companies. 

One of the interesting realities of investing is that a great business doesn't always make a great investment. A company can continue growing while its stock underperforms simply because expectations have already become so high. 

The Magnificent Seven did not suddenly become seven bad businesses. They entered the year carrying high expectations, large positions within the index, and several years of extraordinary performance. Meanwhile, many other parts of the market entered the year with lower valuations and less enthusiasm. 

As investors began finding opportunities elsewhere, market leadership broadened. This shift is a normal part of how markets work. 

J.P. Morgan’s historical review of the ten largest companies in the S&P 500 shows how market leadership has changed across decades. The companies dominating the index in 1985 looked very different from those leading in 2005, 2015, or 2025. Some remained successful businesses for decades. Very few remained the market’s dominant investment leaders.   

The lesson is not that today’s largest companies are destined to fail. History simply gives us little reason to assume that the same group will lead forever. 

Seasons like this are where diversification proves its value 

When large technology companies lead the market for several years, it can begin to feel as though they are the only investments that matter. International stocks, smaller companies, and other parts of the market may receive far less attention. Then leadership quickly changes, often when few investors expect it. 

Diversification acknowledges that none of us knows exactly how the future will unfold. Rather than trying to predict the next winning sector, company, or country, it allows investors to participate in market growth as a whole. The result is a portfolio that is less dependent on any single outcome and better prepared for a range of possible futures. 

The Portfolio Serves the Plan

One of the reasons we spend so much time building a financial plan before building an investment portfolio is because the plan defines what success actually looks like. 

The portfolio then becomes a tool to support that plan. Its purpose may be: 

  • To fund retirement. 

  • To provide confidence that spending can continue through changing markets. 

  • To create flexibility for opportunities that arise unexpectedly. 

  • To support children and grandchildren. 

  • To give generously. 

  • To weather setbacks without having to abandon long-term goals. 

When a portfolio is anchored to a thoughtful financial plan, it becomes easier to stomach periods of change. There is less need to chase whatever happens to be performing best because the portfolio was never built around a single prediction in the first place. 

Instead, we ask a different question: Does this portfolio continue to provide a high probability of accomplishing the goals that matter most? 

That perspective doesn't eliminate uncertainty. It simply helps us respond to uncertainty with patience rather than reaction. 

Built for Uncertainty

None of this means the risks have disappeared. Markets will almost certainly face new challenges that we cannot anticipate today, and periods of volatility are inevitable. 

But this year has offered an important reminder: the market often does its best work while investors are focused on reasons it shouldn't. 

While leadership changes, narratives change, and headlines change, the importance of your goals does not. 

That is why we continue to believe in thoughtful financial planning, broad diversification, tax-wise investing, and the discipline to stay focused on what matters most. 

The objective has never been to predict every twist in the market. It is to build a financial plan and portfolio that can succeed through many different kinds of markets. 

At the beginning of the year, many investors would have predicted a very different outcome than the one we've experienced. 

We cannot know which companies, sectors, or countries will lead next… fortunately, we do not have to.

 
 

Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

 

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Hi Ground Episode 4: The Chase, The Crash, & Investing Sirens
 

E-mail us your questions, comments, and investing sirens: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 4 show notes

Part 1: The Allure of the Gamble

  • “'I couldn't breathe': South Korea's frenzied stock trading exposes margin loan risks.” Reuters, 19 July 2026 [Article]

  • The Frame by Samsung [Link]

  • Thaler, Richard. Johnson, Eric. “Gambling With the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice.” Research Gate, June 1990 [Article]

  • Chart: What percentage gain is needed to make up for a loss?

 

Part 2: The Odyssey Sirens

Part 3: Rip City Update

  • “Tom Dundon using a tired playbook.” Bald Faced Truth by John Canzano, 25 July 2026 [Article]

  • “Trail Blazers, city of Portland finally meet, but distance to arena deal remains ‘significant’.” The Athletic, 30 July 2026 [Article]

  • 4.14.2004: Kobe Bryant Nails the Winning 3 in Double OT [Video]

Part 4: Local Gems

  • Call Ja Morant Hotline [Link]

  • Suttle Lodge Boat House, Deschutes National Forest, Oregon [Link]

 
 

Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

 

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Hi Ground Episode 3: 2026 Halftime Report: Stock Market, Oregon Real Estate & Risk
 
 
 

Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

 

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Hi Ground Episode 2: Why is my paycheck disappearing so fast?
 
 
 

Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

 

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Hi Ground Episode 1: Is SpaceX Actually Going To Do Well?
 
 
 

Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

 

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Building Lasting Resilience in an Age of AI
 

“Assuming AI doesn’t take my job first.” We’ve heard some version of that line from clients all year, almost always delivered with a nervous laugh. But behind the humor sits a question a lot of people are wrestling with right now.

Every meaningful shift in technology brings a mix of optimism and concern, and artificial intelligence is no different. For some, this is still a conversation about what might happen. For others, it has already shown up in tangible ways, whether your role has changed, been eliminated, or you're watching your industry transform in real time.

If that's where you are, the uncertainty isn't theoretical, and it isn't just financial. Work is tied to identity, routine, and a sense of progress, which makes disruption especially hard to process. And even if nothing has changed for you yet, it's difficult to ignore the possibility that it could.

Your Most Important Asset

For most people in the accumulation phase of life, the most important asset isn't a number in your portfolio: it's your ability to earn income over the next decade or more. When that ability feels less certain, everything connected to it can feel less stable.

When that uncertainty sets in, the natural instinct is to try to predict what happens next: Should I pivot? Is this temporary? Am I already behind? It's understandable, but what if the path ahead is too uncertain to plan around with confidence?

A more useful shift is to move from prediction to preparation. Rather than guessing the outcome, focus more on understanding how to remain steady across a range of possibilities.

Start With What You Can See

Financial stress often grows in the space between what's happening and what's understood. Not knowing how long savings will last can feel heavier than the actual number, and not knowing which expenses are fixed and which are flexible can make every decision feel harder than it needs to be.

The starting point is visibility. When the future feels undefined, the mind fills in the gaps (usually with worst-case scenarios). Taking even small steps to map the situation eases that pressure, because it turns something vague into something concrete. The numbers don't have to change; they just have to be visible.

In practice, that often starts with mapping your monthly spending in simple terms. What's essential? What's adjustable? A mortgage and insurance premiums are fixed, but a planned trip or a streaming subscription can flex if they need to. This isn't about building a perfect budget. It's about seeing your situation clearly enough to make decisions from a place of information rather than panic.

From there, structured planning does the rest. Turning a broad concern into a set of defined scenarios — What if my income drops 20%? What if I'm out of work for six months? — makes it possible to act with intention, even when the future stays uncertain. A plan that only works when everything goes right tends to feel fragile. Building in room for strain is what makes it hold up.

Margin Changes the Experience

Two households can face the same disruption and experience it very differently. What separates those experiences is often margin.

Cash doesn't eliminate risk, but it creates time. Time is what makes good decisions possible. With room to breathe, you can weigh options, wait out a market, take the right job instead of the first one. Without it, choices narrow and decisions become reactive instead of intentional.

The most useful way to measure margin is through the lens of time: how many months of essential expenses could I cover if my income changed? The number doesn't need to be perfect, but it gives you a runway. If margin already exists, the goal is to protect it. If it doesn't, the goal is to begin restoring it gradually as circumstances allow.

Some households add a second layer of flexibility by putting a line of credit in place while income is stable. A home equity line of credit (HELOC) is a common example. The purpose isn't to rely on it; it's to have access to it if needed. These options are far easier to secure before they're necessary, and much harder to obtain once income has already changed.

While this example is not specifically about AI disruption, it illustrates the broader value of financial flexibility when circumstances change unexpectedly. One family we worked with ran into this while moving between homes. They found the right next home before their current home had sold, creating a temporary cash gap that their savings alone couldn’t comfortably cover. Because they had established a HELOC while their income and balance sheet were still strong, they were able to bridge the timing difference without rushing the sale of their old home or liquidating investments in a way that would have created an unnecessary tax bill. Once the previous home sold, the line was paid back down. What the HELOC provided was time and the flexibility to make decisions from a position of stability instead of pressure.

Margin doesn't stop the disruption, but it shapes how you respond to it.

Optimizing Your Plan Has a Ceiling

During stable periods, optimization feels like the natural move. There are opportunities everywhere to maximize tax efficiencies, increase savings, and align decisions around long-term growth. Each move is prudent on its own. But the more tightly a plan is optimized, the less room it leaves to adjust when something changes.

Retirement accounts illustrate the tension. They're powerful tools for building wealth, but they're built with constraints and hard to access when you need the money now. Assets that remain accessible before traditional retirement age may be less efficient by the numbers, but they offer something the optimized version can't: room to adjust.

The same pattern shows up in spending. As income rises, fixed commitments tend to rise alongside it. Bigger payments rarely feel restrictive in the moment, but when income changes or priorities shift, they can quickly reduce your ability to adjust.

Debt works similarly. Paying down a smaller obligation like a car loan creates real breathing room. Aggressively paying down a mortgage may improve the long-term math, but it locks money into your house that you can't easily get back if you need it.

Optimization assumes the future will look like the present, and flexibility assumes it might not. That's the difference between a plan that holds and a plan that breaks.

Another Form of Resilience

Visibility, margin, and flexibility are forms of resilience. There's another, less visible but increasingly important: what AI can’t replicate.

AI will keep reshaping how work gets done. It can already draft, analyze, and model at remarkable speed, and it will only get better. But the people who become most valuable (employees) won’t simply be the ones who know how to use AI. They’ll be the ones others trust when the stakes are high.

That kind of trust, the trust built when people share what's at stake, is what makes teams hold together when disruption hits. It's earned by showing up, by working through uncertainty together, by taking responsibility when outcomes aren't guaranteed.

AI can accelerate technical work, but it can’t replicate character, judgment, emotional steadiness, or genuine trust. In many ways, the rise of AI may make those qualities more valuable, not less. Used well, AI tends to amplify the people who already do good work, not replace them.

Create Your Adaptive Advantage

Preparing for uncertainty is less about reacting to every new development and more about maintaining a structure you can trust. In our experience, the people who navigate disruption well rarely anticipated every change. They took the time to understand their situation and made calculated adjustments along the way.

Alongside that structure, earning ability is something you can develop, not just protect. Staying current in your field, strengthening professional relationships, and gradually expanding into adjacent areas where your experience still applies all compound over time, even when the progress is hard to see in the moment.

If you're unsure where to begin, start small: understand your numbers, identify where you have flexibility, and take one step to strengthen your position. Clarity tends to build from there.

Preparation doesn't remove uncertainty, but it can keep uncertainty from making your decisions for you. In periods like this, that steadiness tends to matter more than most people expect.

 
 

Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

 

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Oil Prices and the Economy: What History Suggests
 

Recent developments in the Middle East have once again drawn attention to oil markets. When tensions rise in regions responsible for a meaningful share of global energy production, investors naturally begin to ask how higher oil prices might influence the broader economy and financial markets.

Before discussing the financial implications, it is important to acknowledge the human side of these events. Conflicts like this affect families and communities around the world in ways that extend far beyond markets and economics.

Still, it’s natural for investors to wonder how disruptions in energy markets might affect their investments. Our aim is to provide context that can help frame those concerns.

Why do oil prices matter so much?

Energy plays a central role in the global economy because oil sits near the beginning of the production chain for many industries. It powers transportation networks, supports manufacturing, and is embedded in the production of everyday goods ranging from food to plastics and chemicals. When oil prices rise quickly, those higher costs move through supply chains and eventually reach businesses and households in the form of higher prices.

History shows that sharp oil spikes have often coincided with periods of economic stress, though they are rarely the sole cause.

It is understandable that headlines often focus on oil during geopolitical conflicts. When energy costs rise quickly, pressure on the broader economy can follow.

Geopolitical conflicts often bring uncertainty to both energy markets and financial markets. We explored how markets historically respond to war and global conflict in a previous piece, which you can read here: War and the Market: What Does History Teach Us?.

Why today’s energy landscape is more resilient

Looking at several decades of data provides helpful perspective when considering why the economy may respond differently to oil shocks today.

There is useful context when looking at global oil supply. The United States now produces roughly 20% of the world’s oil, while Iran accounts for about 3–5%. That balance looked different during earlier oil shocks. In 1979, Iran produced close to 10% of global supply, while the United States accounted for roughly 15%. This shift means the global energy system is more diversified and less dependent on any single region than it was during past crises.

Households also appear to have more buffer against rising fuel prices than in earlier periods. One measure economist often watch is how much households spend on gasoline relative to their income.

Historically, economic stress has tended to increase when gasoline spending rises above about 5% of household income. Today that figure sits closer to 2–3%, suggesting households, broadly, have more room to absorb fluctuations in energy prices than during past oil shocks.

The chart below illustrates how gasoline spending as a percentage of household income has changed over time and why economists often watch this measure during periods of rising oil prices.

Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Finding Your Footing During Energy Market Volatility

Periods of geopolitical uncertainty often bring volatility to both energy markets and financial markets. Oil prices can move quickly as investors react to changing expectations about supply and demand.

For investors, the more relevant question is how these developments influence their financial plan.

At Human Investing, portfolios are designed with a range of economic environments in mind. Energy price shocks, while disruptive in the short term, represent only one of many forces that influence markets over time. Diversified portfolios allow different parts of the market to respond differently as economic conditions change.

For example, companies that rely heavily on fuel may face higher costs when energy prices rise, while energy producers may benefit from stronger prices. These adjustments tend to occur within the market rather than outside it.

Because of this, our focus for investors remain on their broader financial plan, investment timeline, and overall diversification.

Oil markets may move quickly in response to geopolitical events, yet long-term investment outcomes are shaped by many forces over time.

 
 

Disclosure:
This material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment, legal, or tax advice. References to historical events or market trends are illustrative and do not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. This commentary does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Human Investing, LLC is a registered investment adviser; registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

Sources
Energy Institute. (2024). Statistical review of world energy 2024.
Graefe, L. (n.d.). Oil shock of 1978–79. Federal Reserve History.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2026). Disposable personal income (DSPI). Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (n.d.). U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2026).U.S. product supplied of finished motor gasoline (thousand barrels per day).

 

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I Hope You’re Wrong: Why Being Right Can Be More Dangerous Than Being Wrong
 

One of the persistent temptations in investing is the belief that the future can be known, rather than simply estimated or viewed through a lens of probability.

Every so often, markets appear to reinforce this belief. It can happen when an analyst makes a sweeping economic call, a television personality highlights a stock, or an investor acts on a strong conviction about a single event. When such a call lands correctly, an investor’s confidence tends to grow much faster than their actual wisdom. This creates a unique brand of risk where the danger isn't being wrong but rather being "right" in a way that encourages all the wrong lessons.

Experience has taught me to treat these moments with caution, as a successful forecast can lead to increased activity, narrower positioning, and a reduced tolerance for uncertainty.

The pull of prediction

We currently live in an environment where market commentary often comes with an air of certainty. Forecasts with clean narratives and specific numbers can create the impression that the future is more orderly and manageable than it actually is. In this context, investing can begin to resemble wagering on specific outcomes rather than planning for inherent unpredictability.

The reality is that markets are complex adaptive systems shaped by a mix of fundamentals, incentives, psychology, policy decisions, and randomness.

Consequently, when a prediction proves accurate, it is rarely clear whether the result stemmed from genuine insight or mere circumstance. Because markets largely reward outcomes without distinguishing between skill and luck, investors are often left to conclude that their success was due to brilliance rather than chance.

Famous calls and their aftermath

History is generous in celebrating bold forecasts. Michael Burry, for instance, is rightly remembered for identifying the housing market excesses before the Global Financial Crisis. It was a significant call that required immense conviction and a high tolerance for sustained discomfort. However, what receives less attention is what happens after such a call is made. Since that episode, Burry has repeatedly warned of impending market downturns; while some concerns were thoughtful, many were premature, and others have been incorrect.  

We see a similar dynamic in the warnings issued by public figures. Robert Kiyosaki, for example, has repeatedly forecasted systemic collapse. The chart aligns several of those warnings with the path of the S&P 500, which over that period moved materially higher.

With enough attempts, even low-probability calls will eventually intersect with actual outcomes.

The common thread in both examples is that forecasting is rarely a single bet. One successful prediction often creates pressure to make another, or to double down on a view even after the market has moved on. This pattern reveals a fundamental distinction for investors: the difference between trying to be "right" and actually making a prudent decision. 

The danger of fixating on outcomes

That difference becomes unavoidable when we examine how outcomes are derived.

As professional poker player and author Annie Duke has observed “We are too quick to treat outcomes as a referendum on decision quality, when luck plays a much larger role than we are comfortable admitting.” This insight sits at the core of disciplined investing.

Outcomes, on their own, are an unreliable measure of decision-making. Well-reasoned decisions can lead to disappointing results. Poorly reasoned decisions can occasionally be rewarded. Over short periods of time, randomness can obscure the underlying quality of the process.

The challenge is that investors are wired to equate results with decision quality. If we judge our strategy solely by whether it was correct in the short term, we reinforce behaviors like excessive conviction and a refusal to reassess our positions. A more durable standard is required, one where the most important question is not whether a view proved correct, but whether the plan was robust enough to withstand being wrong.

The high cost of being too certain

When outcomes are mistaken for skill, the resulting overconfidence can quickly become destructive. Investors who believe they can forecast the market often increase their trading activity, bet too heavily on one specific direction, and abandon the protection of diversification in favor of short-term signals.

The irony is that the more certain an investor becomes, the more fragile their strategy tends to be. Portfolios built on specific predictions only work if those predictions come true, which provides a dangerously narrow margin of safety.

A different standard

From a fiduciary perspective, the objective is not to anticipate each market event correctly. It’s to build resilient plans that remain viable across a wide range of outcomes. This requires accepting uncertainty as a permanent feature of the landscape and prioritizing asset allocation, tax awareness, and emotional resilience over the allure of the next big forecast. While a prediction may be correct, any approach that depends on it’s success is fundamentally fragile.

Why I hope you’re wrong

Ultimately, when I hear a confident market prediction, my internal response is often, “I hope you’re wrong.”

My reaction is not born out of cynicism or a desire to see someone fail. Rather, it reflects an awareness of how slippery the slope can be once a prediction proves correct. Being wrong, while uncomfortable, serves an important purpose of reinforcing humility and preserving discipline.

Markets have a long history of humbling those who claim certainty. The investors who truly succeed over decades are those who respect that history, choosing to build financial plans that remain intact across a wide range of outcomes, including those they did not anticipate.

 
 

Disclosure: This commentary is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment, tax, or legal advice. The views expressed are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no investment strategy can guarantee success or protect against loss. References to specific companies are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Human Investing is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

 

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