After a great run, what should investors expect next?

Every year starts the same way. A fresh set of market forecasts arrives, confidently predicting what stocks will do next. And every year, markets remind us how unreliable those predictions can be.

Even professionals struggle to get it right. In both 2023 and 2024, most Wall Street forecasts underestimated the actual returns of the S&P 500. Markets have a long track record of defying expectations.

This is why long-term investors shouldn’t build portfolios around short-term predictions. Markets move faster than forecasts can adapt. Instead, focus on building portfolios that can compound through a wide range of environments. Still, expectations matter. When investors have a reasonable sense of what outcomes are possible, it’s easier to stay invested when markets don’t behave the way headlines suggest they should.

So as we look ahead to 2026, the useful question isn’t “Will the market keep rallying?”, It’s “What’s reasonable to expect after a strong run?”

The last few years were not normal

It’s hard to overstate how unusual the period from 2020 through 2025 has been. 

A global pandemic shut down large parts of the economy. Inflation surged to levels not seen since the early 1980s. The S&P 500 suffered its worst calendar year since 2008 in 2022. Trade policy and geopolitics added ongoing uncertainty.

And yet, by the end of 2025, the S&P 500 was up nearly 18% for the year. 

When you zoom out, recent returns stand well above long-term averages. Over the past 1, 5, and 10 years, the market has delivered results that are meaningfully better than its 50-year history.

That’s great news for investors. But it also creates a subtle challenge. Strong recent returns have a way of adjusting expectations. What was once exceptional can start to feel normal, even when it isn’t.

Historically, periods of above-average returns are often followed by more moderate ones. Not because markets “owe” us anything, but because starting valuations matter. After a great run, future returns tend to look more ordinary.

The return expectations shown above are derived from publicly available third-party capital market outlooks and represent long-term estimates, not predictions or guarantees. These assumptions are not specific to any individual investor, do not reflect advisory fees, taxes, or other costs, and may differ materially from actual future market results.
[1] Vanguard, Vanguard Capital Markets Model Forecasts, January 22, 2026
[2] Schwab, What’s the 10-Year Outlook for Major Asset Classes?, June 6, 2025
[3] Fidelity, Capital Market Assumptions: A Comprehensive Global Approach for the Next 20 Years, August 2023
[4} BlackRock, Capital Market Assumptions, November 13, 2025

Why “lower” returns aren’t a bad outcome

Many long-term forecasts for U.S. stocks over the next decade fall in the mid–single-digit range. Compared to recent experience, that sounds disappointing. Compared to history, it’s typical.

This is an important distinction. Lower-than-exceptional returns are not the same thing as poor returns. Compounding still works at 5%–6% per year. It just doesn’t feel as exciting when you’re coming off a stretch of double-digit gains.

Experiencing more typical equity returns isn’t inherently an issue. It’s planning as though the unusually strong results of the past decade will repeat that can cause problems.

Why planning matters more than forecasting

For investors saving toward retirement or already retired, expectations matter because small differences compound over time. When returns are more typical, the margin for error narrows. This is exactly where comprehensive planning becomes most valuable.

At Human Investing, we don’t try to outguess markets or build portfolios around forecasts. That means emphasizing diversification, discipline, and resilience rather than reacting to short-term narratives. Our focus is helping clients make better decisions around the things they can control, including how investments interact with taxes, cash flow, retirement timing, and spending choices.

When returns are strong, almost any strategy can feel successful. A well-built financial plan shows which levers impact results, how much flexibility you have, and what adjustments are worth making if conditions change.

Markets will always surprise us. A good plan is designed so those surprises don’t derail long-term goals. That’s the role planning plays in our work, not as a prediction tool, but as a framework for making sound decisions across many possible market outcomes.

Sometimes having a sense of what may be coming can help stay calm during tumultuous times. Lets take some time to review some of the major topics that could cause investors stress in 2026. Good or bad, some version of these topics and the uncertainty around them is reflected in the market today. As more information comes out as time passes, that uncertainty converting into knowledge will cause prices to update. It’s unlikely these will be unforeseen surprises that cause major market movement.

Major 2026 topics we’re watching

Can The Fed maintain its independence?

The Federal Reserve (aka “The Fed”) is in interesting territory. With the attempted dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and Department of Justice Investigation, The Fed’s independence is being challenged in new ways. The administration has made their desire for lower rates faster clear. The Fed’s challenge is ensuring rates don’t get too low and stoke inflation.

As unpleasant as it can feel at times, an Independent Fed is a healthy influence on the US economy in the long run. Being willing to raise rates to slow economic activity in the short term to control inflation is an important and painful process. The great challenge of high inflation is it makes any cost today for gains in the future incredibly difficult to make feasible. The lowered investment eventually drags on an economy’s long term growth prospects.

What will AI do to the economy?

No matter where you look, the biggest question for markets and the economy all center around AI. We recently wrote about why the AI boom is different than the dot-com bubble. We do know the upfront costs to build the infrastructure necessary for AI are large. The big concern for investors is the payoff of these AI related investments. If the costs are never fully recovered by increased revenue, companies that are booming today because of their AI investments may end up falling.

What does a modern workplace look like?

Another theme looking at 2026 forecasts: The labor market is going to be an area to watch. With immigration slowing and the aging of the baby boomer generation into retirement, the workforce size is expected to hold relatively steady. The uncertainty of the tariff environment has made long-term decisions outside of AI difficult for companies to navigate. The promise of AI is to enable workers to do more, and so in theory a given company will need fewer people to accomplish a similar amount of work. All this has led to employers generally being less motivated to hire. There aren’t necessarily large layoffs incoming, but hiring may slow enough to increase unemployment slightly.

Staying invested still matters most

The past several years have been exceptionally good for investors. After a run like that, it’s reasonable to expect a more typical environment going forward.

There will always be reasons to sell. There will always be headlines that make staying invested feel uncomfortable. But investing has never required perfect conditions to work.

If you’ve stayed invested through the last 5 to 10 years, you’ve already benefited from an unusually strong period. The next chapter may look different, but the discipline required doesn’t change.

The goal isn’t to predict what 2026 will bring. It’s to own a portfolio that doesn’t need predictions to succeed.

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Disclosure: This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Any market commentary, forward-looking statements, projections, or return expectations discussed are based on assumptions and current information and may not materialize. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives, and investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. References to market indexes, historical returns, projections, or economic conditions are illustrative only and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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Rebalancing is the idea that you are bringing your investment portfolio back to its targets. For example, if you invest your account as 60% stocks and 40% bonds (60/40) and never trade, in ten years your account will not be 60% stocks. Because stocks have historically tended to perform better than bonds over most ten-year periods, you will likely have a higher weight of stocks than bonds after ten years. If you don’t rebalance, your portfolio may not align with your intended allocation, which could change the risk and return characteristics.

WHY is it NECESSARY

Deciding how much to invest in various asset classes is a critical determinant of long-term performance[1]. Since asset allocation matters, maintaining it through rebalancing matters. As we’ve written previously, over time stocks typically outperform bonds[2]. There are also certainly times bonds outperform stocks, usually in recessions. The logic of rebalancing boosting returns is simple: You are selling what has relatively outperformed and buying what has underperformed (buy low, sell high). Especially in today’s world, where most ETFs are commission free, making the transaction costs of rebalancing minimal. Taxable investors should consider the tax implications of rebalancing, and also consider the change in risk and return of not rebalancing.

TWO APPROACHES

In financial theory, there are two main approaches to rebalancing: calendar-based and tolerance-based.

Calendar-based rebalancing ensures the long-term risk-return profile of your portfolio is consistent. This gets implemented on a set frequency (monthly, quarterly, annually) and ensures a consistent cadence.

Tolerance-based rebalancing takes advantage of buy low, sell high opportunities as they arise. This assumes you rebalance only if you hit certain thresholds of one asset class over or under performing. For example, say your target is 60/40, and you set a 3% absolute tolerance; if the equities drift to 64%, that prompts a rebalance back to 60/40. The alternative is relative tolerances, the same percentage of the target for each piece of the model. So, if a 60/40 portfolio had a 20% relative tolerance, the equities would be rebalanced if off by a relative 20% (20% of 60% target = 12% tolerance) and the bonds would have a 4% tolerance for rebalancing. There has been research suggesting tolerance-based rebalancing is more beneficial for long-term performance[3].

OUR PROCESS

At Human Investing, we combine both calendar-based and tolerance-based rebalancing to give our clients the best of both worlds. Tolerance rebalancing allows us to take advantage of market dips and rallies as they happen, while our annual reviews ensure no portfolio drifts too far off course. This approach keeps every account aligned with the level of risk and return our clients expect and provides discipline, consistency, and confidence over the long run.

While rebalancing can sometimes feel counter intuitive, like selling bonds and buying stocks in March 2020, it is a helpful practice for any investor. It both keeps your portfolio consistent in the long run, and may improve risk-adjusted returns over time.

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[1] Ibbotson, R. G., & Kaplan, P. D. (2000). Does Asset Allocation Policy Explain 40, 90, or 100 Percent of Performance? Financial Analysts Journal, 56(1), 26–33. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v56.n1.2327

[2] https://www.humaninvesting.com/450-journal/equity-risk-premium

[3] Daryanani, Gobind (2008). Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm for Wealth Managers. FPA Journal. January 2008.

Disclosure: This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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When it comes to a company’s stock, earnings are at the heart of its value. A company’s earnings represent its profitability—the actual money it makes after covering all costs—and this bottom line directly influences its stock price. Understanding earnings is key for investors because they reveal how well a company is performing today and provide insight into its potential growth. Let’s break down what earnings really mean and how they impact the value of the stocks you own.

What are earnings?

Earnings are the net income or profit for a business. Publicly traded companies report their earnings every three months in a document called the “net income statement,” which they must submit to the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). To find a company’s earnings, you can look up their 10-Q or 10-K filings on the SEC website.
 
Earnings are reported quarterly and are typically compared to the previous quarter and the same quarter from the previous year to show how profits are growing or shrinking. Companies will also release annual earnings, summarizing their financial year. There are also earnings calls where company leaders (like the  CEO or CFO) will discuss recent financial results, and provide guidance for the future.

What determines earnings?

Earnings start with total revenue (the money a company brings in). Then, all the costs are subtracted to see how much profit remains. Some of the main cost categories:

• Cost of Good Sold (COGS): Raw materials and labor to make the product

• Sales, General, and Administrative (SG&A): All the costs to keep the company running not involved in making the product. Think human resources, accounting, or marketing

• Depreciation: This tracks the decrease in value of physical items (like machines) over time.

• Amortization: This is the decrease in value of non-physical items (like patents) over time.

• Interest: This is what a company pays on its loans (outstanding bonds)

How should I think about earnings?

Think of earnings as a pie. The total size of the pie represents a company’s total profits. Each slice of the pie shows how much profit belongs to each share of stock. Earnings per share (EPS) measures the profit each share would get if the earnings were divided up evenly. For example, Nike (NKE) had $1.051 billion in net income in August 2024, resulting in EPS of $0.70 per share. Meanwhile Ford (F) had a higher $1.831 billion in net income June 2024. Because Ford has more shares outstanding than Nike, EPS came out lower at $0.456 per share.
 
When evaluating how expensive a single company stock is, investors look at the Price to Earnings (Price/Earnings or P/E) ratio. It’s a measure of how much someone is paying for every dollar of profit at the company. If you expect the company to grow a lot, you should be willing to pay a much higher P/E ratio than for a stable, established company that isn’t expected to grow. Looking at the P/E ratio is a much better way to get a sense of if a company is cheap or expensive. Stock prices reflect both the total earnings and future growth expectations (i.e. the size of the pie) and the number of shares out there (i.e. how big is each piece of the pie).

How do earnings impact stock prices?

Most publicly traded companies have earnings expectations, which is the average of what the professional analysts who track the company expect earnings to be for the next quarter (and beyond). Companies that exceed expectations have a positive surprise, and usually see their stock price go up in response. Conversely, companies that miss earnings (i.e. report lower earnings than expected, or reduce growth expectations) usually see their stock price decline.
 
Stock market reactions to earnings can sometimes seem unpredictable. For example, a company will beat earnings (i.e. report higher earnings than the analysts expected), but they didn’t beat earnings by as much as they did last quarter, so the stock price drops. Expectations can be so low for some companies any positive earnings surprise sends the stock soaring.

Many critique earnings as a measure of stock price. It’s possible to change accounting practices where the reported earnings number is higher, but the increase is more to do with changes in accounting policies than actual business activity. Extreme cases of manipulation can lead to fines and forcing companies to reissue earnings.

What do earnings do for me, the investor?

Earnings represent the company’s profits, which can benefit investors in two main ways:

1. Reinvest back into the company: typically done by growing companies, sometimes the best use for extra cash is to put more money back into the company to grow

2. Payout to investors: typically done by stable, established companies. The stockholders are the owners of the company, so the company returns the earnings to the investors in the form of dividends or stock buybacks

In traditional finance theory, the reason you own stock in a company is that your ownership means you will get the earnings returned to you in the form of dividends. Theoretically, any change in stock price is a change in the expected total dividends you’ll receive over the life of the company. While there can be lots of noise around stock prices (economic outlook, new leadership, etc.), ultimately the expectations around earnings (and thus dividends to investors) is the root of stock price fluctuations.
 
Whether your own stocks individually or through a broadly diversified fund, understanding how earnings impact stock price can be a helpful way to evaluate their long-term opportunity.

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We’re all familiar with the risk-reward tradeoff: Do I risk injury to compete in a sport I love and feel fulfilled by? Do I risk leaving a stable job to pursue a career that excites me? It’s not surprising that this everyday phenomenon is also very present in our investment portfolios.

For example, there are three asset classes that an investor typically includes in their portfolio: cash, bonds, and stocks. Of the three, stocks can generate the greatest return but also merit the highest risk. On the other hand, a risk-free investment guarantees a future return with essentially no possibility of loss. An example of a risk-free investment is US Treasury bills, as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. If investors are taking on more risk by investing in stocks, they want to know their efforts are worth it. Enter the equity risk premium.

Understanding the Equity Risk Premium

The equity risk premium measures how much more an investor may receive in returns when investing in stocks versus a risk-free investment like T-bills. Basically, it puts a number to the term, “the higher the risk, the higher the reward”.

As we’ve previously written, the fear of financial loss causes many investors to be overly cautious about their investments. ”Myopic loss aversion” is when focusing on avoiding short-term losses in equities leads to poor long-term allocation decisions.  Incorporating bonds into your investment portfolio can serve as  a stabilizer, reducing the payback period to see your portfolio recover from downturns. Many investors own some combination of stocks and bonds to ensure the risk-reward tradeoff is an acceptable range for them, either emotionally or financially (or both). Because of the fear of loss, many investors either avoid or under-weigh equities. How significant is the difference between owning stocks (highest risk), bonds (lower risk), or cash (no risk)?

Risks associated with investing in Stocks

So, why do those who invest in stocks generally receive a greater return? Because of the greater risk they take on by doing so, such as:

Unpredictability: Stocks do not offer fixed payments at specific intervals like bonds.

When an investor buys a bond, they are essentially lending money to a company or a government (see our Bonds 101 blog for a primer on bond basics). Like any loan, bonds have terms outlining specific payment amounts and dates. These payments, known as coupons or interest, are obligatory, with insolvency being the only reason for non-payment.

Conversely, stocks represent ownership in a company and entail greater uncertainty. Returns for stock investors can come in the form of dividends distributed by the company or by selling shares at a higher price in the future. Unlike bond payments, dividends are not mandatory and can be suspended unexpectedly, as seen during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the growth of dividends may not meet expectations, even for well-established companies commonly known as “blue chip” stocks (such as Coca-Cola, McDonalds, or Microsoft). Even large and stable companies face challenges that can cause fluctuations in their stock prices. Due to the unpredictability of stock payouts in terms of amount and timing, investing in stocks is inherently riskier and more volatile. As a result, investors demand higher returns from equities as compensation for bearing this additional risk.

Risk of Total Loss: Stockholders can see their investment go to zero more easily than bond investors.

Over the last thirty years, bondholders have frequently recouped 40% or more of their initial investment during bankruptcies, although exact recovery rates can vary[1]. In contrast, equity owners seldom receive any compensation in bankruptcy. The harsh reality is that most companies fail in the long term, and many of these companies made interest payments on bonds throughout their existence, while equity investors ultimately see their investments become worthless. Regardless of whether you’re investing in stocks or bonds, owning a broad index fund provides essential diversification. Owning a basket of companies ensures that even if one fails, the other companies that continue to grow offset your losses so you’re never experiencing a complete wipeout.

The Equity Premium at Play Can Sometimes be a Jackpot

First, a quick note: All return figures mentioned below are based on real returns, or returns after adjusting for inflation. Real returns are the most accurate comparison across different asset classes, reflecting changes in purchasing power over time. Although nominal returns are widely used in the financial world unless otherwise specified, they do not account for inflation and are therefore less accurate in this example. All returns are based on rolling 12-month periods, meaning this is the return if you held the investment for 12 months.

Table 1 - Real returns, rolling 12 month periods - (1926-2023, adjusted for inflation)[2]

When we look at the real returns for the last 97 years between cash, bonds, and equities, it’s clear stocks deliver the highest returns, albeit with the most downside risk. Cash is undeniably the safest asset class but struggles to outpace inflation. Bonds tend to be closer to cash than equities in terms of their risk-return profile.

The Long-Term Power of the Equity Premium for an Investor

While stocks undoubtedly offer the highest returns, it’s essential to grasp their long-term value to investors. To demonstrate this, let’s outline a hypothetical scenario:

• Assume three investors each save $5K annually for 40 years for retirement for a total contribution of $200K per investor.

• We’ll assume each investor owns only a single asset class (cash, bonds, or stocks) for all 40 years of saving.

• We’ll use the real return averages from Table 1 for each asset class.

• We’ll utilize the commonly cited 4% annual withdrawal rate[3] for retirees to determine how much income the portfolio provides in retirement annually.

Table 2 – Portfolio values assuming real returns

The difference in portfolio value, and resulting income possible in retirement, is significant. A pure equity investor ends up with nearly six times the spending power of a pure bond investor after 40 years.

While equity market volatility can be unsettling, exposure to equities can significantly reduce the amount of savings required to achieve your financial goals such as funding retirement. It’s critical to ensure your equity allocation is sufficient to facilitate asset growth yet small enough to prevent panic during market downturns. Striking this balance depends on your emotional risk tolerance and financial capacity for risk.

Determining the optimal equity and bond allocation requires careful consideration of factors such as taxes, time horizon, and liquidity needs. If you are seeking guidance in navigating this complex process, please reach out to us at 503-905-3100, or email hi@humaninvesting.com to start the conversation.

Sources

[1] https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/231215-default-transition-and-recovery-u-s-recovery-study-loan-recoveries-persist-below-their-trend-12947167

[2] These returns are based on an index, do not represent actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.

Data based on rolling 12 month returns, with monthly return intervals.

Equity returns utilize the Ibbotson SBBI Large-Cap Stocks Total Return for Jan 1926 to Sep 1989 (data courtesy of CFA Institute), and S&P 500 TR for Oct 1989 to Dec 2023 (data courtesy of YCharts).

Bond returns utilize the Ibbotson SBBI US Intermediate Term Government Bonds Total Return for Jan 1926 to Apr 1996 (CFA Institute), and Bloomberg US Aggregate for May 1996 to Dec 2023 (YCharts).

Cash returns utilize the Ibbotson SBBI US (30-Day) Treasury Bills for Jan 1926 to May 1997 (CFA Institute), and Bloomberg US Treasury Bills 1-3 Month for Jun 1997 to Dec 2023 (YCharts).

Inflation rates for calculating real returns are based on the Ibbotson SBBI inflation for Jan 1926 to Jan 1947 (CFA Institute), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Feb 1947 to Dec 2023 (YCharts).

[3] https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/sites/default/files/2021-04/MAR04%20Determining%20Withdrawal%20Rates%20Using%20Historical%20Data.pdf

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Bonds are a fundamental piece of most investment portfolios, and the basics of bonds can confound even seasoned investors. When testing financial literacy through 5 core questions, bonds are frequently the topic that most commonly trips people up (try the quiz here). We want to make it easier for you to grasp the basics of bonds, whether you're new to investing or just want a quick review.

lend money to companies or the government

At its core, a bond is a type of loan. It's usually issued by governments or companies that need to borrow money. When you buy a bond, you're essentially lending money to the issuer. As the bondholder, you receive interest payments from the borrower.

Bonds are generally considered less risky than stocks, because if the borrower faces bankruptcy bondholders get paid before stockholders. However, the return on bonds is typically lower than stocks, and there's a risk that the borrower might not be able to pay back the debt.

key terms related to getting paid back

The principal value is the amount being borrowed by the issuer. Typically bonds trade in $1,000 increments.

The maturity date is the date the bond will return the principal value (aka face value) to bondholders.

You also receive interest when you lend money. The interest received is usually based on the Coupon rate, which is the interest payments paid to bondholders. Typically as a percentage of face value paid annually. For example, if you have $1,000 of a bond with a coupon rate of 5%, you will receive $50 in interest payments every year until the bond matures. Upon maturity, you will get the $1,000 principal back.

Credit rating is like a credit score for a government or company, indicating how likely they are to make payments. A higher credit rating indicates a higher chance of the issuer making payments.

Imagine if Disney needed to raise money via bonds

When a bond is first issued, the issuer sets the terms like the coupon rate and maturity date. The reality is that interest rates and credit risk (how likely the issuer is to payoff the bond) change after the bond is issued, which causes the bond price to fluctuate.

Imagine if Disney issues bonds paying 5% interest, the current market rate.

You purchase a bond for $1,000, and you get a $50 coupon payment from Mickey Mouse every year until the bond matures.

If interest rates go up, this isn’t good for your bondS

If interest rates rise next year to say 8%, and Disney issues new bonds, they will probably issue them at the new interest rate.

Your neighbor Laura decides to buy $1,000 of the new bonds, and she gets an $80 coupon from Mickey Mouse every year.

Because interest rates rose, the value of your bond paying $50/year goes down in value, less than the $1,000 you purchased it for because the $1,000 could buy Laura’s bond paying $80/month.

The reverse if also true. If rates had fallen to 3%, Laura’s bond would only pay her $30, and your $50/month bond would be worth more than $1,000. This is why when interest rates rise, bond prices fall.

Think of a teeter-totter: When one side’s down (interest rates), the other side must go up (bond prices).

When your bond is trading below $1,000, it is trading at a discount, typically with a coupon rate lower than current interest rates. If your bond is trading above $1,000 it is trading at a premium, typically with a coupon rate higher than current interest rates.

Timing bond returns

Remember that the bond market is full of smart people looking to try and make money. As a result, all similar bonds are priced so they provide similar returns. For example, if you see a 2 year bond with a 5% coupon, and a 2 year bond with a 3% coupon, the price of the 3% coupon bond will be so much lower than the 5% coupon bond and you will end up making just as much money either way. This is called the yield, or coupon + price return on a bond. Keep in mind if there are differences in bonds (i.e. higher or lower credit risk, time to maturity, other terms of the loan), that can cause differences in yield too.

When should I own bonds?

Long term equities tend to produce higher returns than bonds. However, these equity returns involve higher risk, and some people can’t afford to wait to make their money back. Bonds are an important ballast to ensure you can sleep at night, keeping a portion of your portfolio safe. Bonds can also provide a reliable source of cash flow that can be more reliable than stock dividends.

Finding the right bond for you

Like stocks, there are different bonds. Sovereign bonds (issued by governments) tend to be less risky, providing lower returns because of the lower credit risk. On the other hand, corporate bonds (issued by companies) provide higher returns, with an increased danger of losses due to companies going bankrupt.

At Human Investing, we provide individual treasury ladders for clients. US Treasuries are broadly considered one of the safest investments in the world. By owning individual bonds, you know you will get your principal returned upon maturity. The liquidity of treasuries also allows for flexibility if funds are needed sooner than anticipated.

Alternatively bond funds can be an excellent solution for clients, particularly those seeking growth. By investing in a bond fund, you gain exposure to a diversified range of bonds, enabling you to take on credit risk more effectively than as an individual investor. Much like owning a stock index fund, owning so many different companies debt means even if a few go bankrupt, they are such a small piece of your portfolio you will be okay.

Still have questions, or want to talk to an advisor? Reach out to us at hi@humaninvesting.com, or 503-905-3100.

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Welcome to 2024

It’s an election year and America will vote in November for a new Congress and President. Regardless of the election outcome, some investors will be pleased, while others will be disappointed. This article will help investors understand how the markets have been influenced when different political parties take control of both Congress and the Presidency. Looking at data from 1926 through 2023, the main conclusion is straightforward:

Over time the markets tend to rise, regardless of which party controls the White House or Congress.[1]

What impact does the President have on the stock market?

Democratic presidents have overseen slightly higher stock returns compared to Republicans. However, this difference is minor and not considered statistically significant. The variance in stock returns under different political parties can be attributed to the random chance of who happened to be in power at a given time. The reality is the US economy is vast and intricate, making it challenging for any individual, even a powerful figure like the President, to completely control its direction.

A recent example is the presidential election of 2016. The general expectation was for Hillary Clinton to win. When Donald Trump unexpectedly secured victory, initial market reactions led to a decline. By the following day’s market close, markets had not only recovered from the dip but ended up positive on the day. It’s hard to know how the market will respond to unexpected information, and it’s equally difficult to predict what impact a President may have on the stock market.

What impact does Congress have on the stock market?

On the other end of the federal government, a Republican-controlled Congress has typically overseen the best stock market returns. The differences are minor enough that there’s no certainty which party controlling congress (or a split) is best for the stock market.

Congress can be the more impactful part of the federal government in the long run. Executive actions are easily overridden day one by a President from the opposing party taking office. Legislation tends to be more enduring due to the requirement for a larger number of people to be involved. It’s important to note that the effects of legislation may take years to become apparent. This time lag makes it extremely challenging to pinpoint and attribute specific policies to their respective impacts on the ever-evolving dynamics of the market.

What about the White House and Congress combined?

When you widen your lens to encompass both the White House and Congress, the narrative remains consistent. Markets tend to go up irrespective of political control.

Regardless of the federal government’s control scenario, markets go up more often than they go down. 

As the 2024 elections unfold, we urge investors to remember that investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Position your portfolio to be successful in the long run, enabling it to weather unexpected changes from any source. Both parties have experienced periods of positive and negative returns while in power. Despite the inevitable changes in government, companies exhibit resilience and innovation, consistently discovering avenues to yield returns for their investors. In the intricate dance of politics and markets, a steadfast and forward-looking investment approach proves to be the key to enduring success.

Sources:

[1] Equity returns are monthly returns for the Ibbotson SBBI US Large-Cap Stocks Total Return for Jan 1926 thru Oct 1989 (data courtesy of the CFA Institute & Morningstar Direct), and the S&P 500 Total return for Nov 1989 thru Dec 2023 (data courtesy of YCharts)

Data for which party controlled both houses of Congress and the presidency is from the history.house.gov website (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Party-Government/)

Changes to Congress and the Presidency are assumed to occur Jan 1st of odd years. A split Congress indicates that each party controls either the House or Senate, but neither party controls both.

Appendix: Bonus Chart 📈

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In recent months, I’ve been pondering the US labor force and how it has changed in the last five years. Amid the ongoing conversations surrounding inflation and the Federal Reserve's (aka The Fed) recent decisions to raise interest rates to manage inflation, I don’t want to neglect the other part of The Fed’s dual mandate: the dynamics of unemployment and the labor force. Prior to COVID-19, unemployment was at 3.5%, the lowest rate in the last 50 years. Today unemployment is around 3.8%, and has been 4% or lower since December 2021, significantly below the median unemployment of approximately 5% the US has experienced over the last 25 years. Since March 2021, job openings have consistently surpassed the number of job seekers.

Unemployment is often considered an indicator of an economy’s health. Like inflation, you want some unemployment, but not too much. Too high unemployment indicates a weak economy. If unemployment is too low, high inflation becomes a concern. Businesses seeking to grow may be constrained because of a lack of workers, limiting overall economic growth.

Strong employment is a major reason why 2023 has not experienced the recession that many feared at the beginning of the year. I wanted to delve into the reasons behind the tight labor market, what can be done about it, and what this signifies for the overall economy.

Labor’s impact on the current economy

The fundamental assumption in most economic models is that production is constrained by two primary inputs: labor (i.e. workers) and capital (i.e. technology). While technology has yielded significant advances in productivity, the necessity for a workforce to drive economic growth remains. A shortage of labor would imply slower economic growth, potentially resulting in reduced stock market growth.

Concerns persist regarding automation displacing jobs. Some have even proposed the implementation of a universal basic income due to the scarcity of employment opportunities resulting from automation (as exemplified by former presidential candidate Andrew Yang, who made this a central theme of his campaign). A variation of this concern has been present for over a century.

The latest development in automation centers around AI potentially increasing productivity to the extent that we might encounter a surplus of labor. Numerous case studies illustrate that technological change does not always materialize as successfully or rapidly as initially projected. A decade ago, there was much buzz about how autonomous cars were poised to revolutionize the world. Substantial progress has been made, but the challenge of perfecting driverless cars has proven more intricate than many had anticipated. (An example is Moral Machine, where you weigh in on how a self-driving car should navigate situations where the car must choose who to protect in an unavoidable collision).

Another illustration can be found in the excessive optimism at the peak of the dot-com bubble. While the internet did transform the way we work and introduced new efficiencies, it took significantly longer than what people in 1999 had envisioned. Forecasting the timeline for technological change impacting worker productivity is challenging.

If I had to guess, I would anticipate that in the near term (i.e. the next 5 years), we will continue to experience a tight labor market that will be a headwind to growth, for the economy and the stock market.

Retiring baby boomers present a significant challenge

By 2030, the youngest Baby Boomers will turn 65. The average American retires at 64. These retiring Baby Boomers possess the most expertise and would ideally be succeeded by Gen X workers with slightly less experience. However, Gen X is too small of a generation to fully replace the baby boomers, and Millennials & Gen Z broadly lack the experience necessary to fully replace the skills of retiring baby boomers.

This is backed by recent projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), showing that total employment is expected to grow by only 0.3% annually for the next decade, with a significant constraint being the slower growth of the working age population. Slowing growth in labor likely means slowing growth in GDP and stock prices.

Furthermore, there has been a consistent decline in the labor force participation rate over time. This is a measure of everyone 16 and older who is not in the military or an institution (due to criminal activity, mental health, or aging). Part of this reflects the aging population. As the proportion of the population beyond retirement age increases, a smaller segment of the population remains in the workforce.

How can we increase labor?

Gen Z is entering the workforce, but as a generation, they are too small to completely replace retiring baby boomers. Producing more working-age adults takes at least 16 years and 9 months, and the US birthrate has been below the stable replacement level of 2.1 for most of the last 50 years. If the US wants to sustain long-term population growth, and consequently, workforce expansion, it must either depend on immigration or find ways to boost the birth rate.

Implementing a policy permitting increased immigration could boost the size of the workforce in America. However, this is a politically contentious issue, and the legal framework around immigration is too uncertain to make reliable long-term predictions. Overly restrictive immigration policy could lead to a labor shortage, and too permissive immigration policy could cause a labor surplus. Foreign workers constitute approximately 20% of the US workforce.

A tighter labor market has some benefits for workers

The scarcity of labor translates into more choices when seeking employment and enhances the bargaining power of job seekers. Companies will have to consider their recruitment and retention policies to ensure they have the workers required for optimal performance. US wages and salaries are remaining above inflation, showing workers ability to demand higher compensation.

A tighter labor market plus higher wages could equal higher inflation rates

However, higher wages also entail increased costs for companies, and the allocation of these costs, whether to customers or shareholders, may result in higher inflation or reduced earnings. To counter inflation, the Federal Reserve has been increasing and maintaining higher interest rates. Many are apprehensive that the tight labor market (associated with demand-pull inflation) and ongoing post-COVID supply chain challenges (linked to cost-push inflation) could make achieving the long-term target of 2% inflation more challenging.

In Q3 2023 we observed inflation rates increasing from just below 3% in June to 3.7% in September. Many consider unemployment and inflation to have an inverse relationship. A tighter labor market may necessitate the Federal Reserve to persist with a more extended and aggressive tightening policy to manage inflation. If the Federal Reserve becomes overly aggressive in its tightening efforts, the concerns that led many to anticipate a 2023 recession could materialize.

All of this hinges on the tight labor market persisting. Technological advancements have the potential to enhance productivity to a level where a smaller workforce can achieve more and sustain economic growth. Modifications in immigration policy could either introduce a new source of workers or further reduce the size of the workforce.

In the long run, successful companies will adapt to the new environment and thrive. A diversified portfolio will continue to capture the growth of the companies that excel. We encourage investors to be prepared for a myriad of reasons to be nervous, and understand given time the market will figure things out and continue to grow.

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What recession?

As prognosticators assessed markets and the economy in the beginning of 2023, the expectation for many was a tumultuous year,  with a substantial likelihood of a recession. Now, nearly two-thirds of the way through the year, the S&P (Standard & Poor) 500 has surged by 18.73% through the end of August. Real GDP (Gross domestic product) has maintained steady growth, with quarterly increases of at least 2% since Q3 2022. Inflation, which began the year at a daunting 6.4%, has receded to 3.18%, still above The Fed's 2% long-term target but showing a marked improvement.

What changed given the gloomy expectations for 2023 at the start of the year? The biggest unknown was the impact of The Fed’s decision to continue raising interest rates. The expectation was that The Fed raising interest rates to cool inflation would cause an economic recession. We’ve even seen rising rates play a role in multiple banks failing earlier in 2023, but those events haven’t triggered any distress.

We’ll break down the top themes for why we’re seeing the markets and economy continue to power through.

Theme #1: Strong job market

Inflation has gone down, but GDP growth remains positive, and unemployment remains low. There are still 3 million more job openings than job seekers, and few were expecting The Fed to get this far on inflation without dipping the economy into a recession. Even experts have a difficult time accurately predicting where the markets and the economy are going.

Theme #2: ‘Soft landing’ of interest rate hikes

In contrast to the substantial interest rate hikes witnessed in 2022, the changes in 2023 have been modest. A significant contributor to the slowdown in interest rate hikes was the decline in inflation during the latter part of 2022, which has persisted into 2023. Consequently, The Fed didn’t need to enact as many rate increases, or do so as rapidly as they did in 2022.

Theme #3: Surprising growth from S&P 500 companies

The S&P 500’s rise has a couple of factors going for it. While 2022 saw a decline in earnings per share for S&P 500 companies, 2023 has witnessed earnings growth, with expectations that growth will continue. Analysts are feeling increasingly optimistic that companies will find a way to bolster earnings amidst a higher interest rate environment.

The other piece of the puzzle is the exceptional performance of the largest stocks within the S&P 500 this year. The S&P 500 is a market cap weighted index, meaning that each stock is weighted based on how large the company is. This means AAPL has a bigger weight than Home Depot, and AAPL being up 10% would increase the S&P 500 performance more than HD (Home Depot) being up 10%.

In 2023, returns have been concentrated in a few high-performing stocks. Put differently, only 28% of stocks in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index. This highlights the dominance of a handful of top performers in 2023. It’s worth noting 61% of stocks in the S&P 500 have achieved positive returns for the year, indicating favorable performance across the stock market.

Source: Data for this paragraph is based on using IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF) holdings. Positions were all verified to be held 12/30/2022 and 8/24/2023 to ensure consistency of constituents. Average returns assumes equal weighting of the positions. Top 10 holdings are based on 8/24/2023 weighting: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, GOOGL, GOOG, META, BRK.B, TSLA, UNH. Jan-Aug performance data courtesy of YCharts as of 8/31/2023 market close.

Theme #4: Mid and small sized companies are not far behind

Many talk about the S&P 500 as though it represents the entire stock market. However the S&P 500 represents the largest companies in the US (typically $14.5 billion and greater), leaving out companies considered mid-sized and small.  The mid and small parts of the US markets have been lagging, still positive returns but not as high.

Source: All data courtesy of YCharts. Assumes S&P 500 for US Large, S&P 400 for Mid, S&P 600 for Small, and S&P 1500 for Total Market (blend for all). Uses Value & Growth versions of benchmarks respectively.

Predicting short-term MARKET outcomes continues to be difficult

Short-term value oriented investors may be frustrated to see their performance lagging the broad market. Alternatively, longer-term investors recall seeing a significant benefit in 2022 by experiencing less negative returns than the broad market or growth stocks. You are still positive from the start of 2022 to the end of August 2023. Growth and blend investors are still waiting to recover from the downturn. Trying to time when value or growth will outperform is not recommended. Find an investment style that suits your risk tolerance and financial plan, and be prepared to stick with it for the long haul despite periods of under or over performance.

The year 2023 so far serves as a compelling illustration of how stocks can still generate positive returns even in the face of grim expectations. It is also a great reminder of how difficult accurately predicting the economy or the markets is. The outlook for the equities market is rarely all sunshine and rainbows. Stock market volatility means that short-term corrections are always on the table. There are and always will be valid concerns that could lead to a downturn. If you are choosing a particular tilt in your investments, be prepared to stick with it over time. Long term, equities remain the best way to grow your savings. It is valuable to remember and reflect on the times when you anticipated poor returns but were pleasantly surprised by positive performance.

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Earnings season is coming

With the recent struggles of Nike stock over the past couple of years, many Nike employees are wondering what to do with their stock. Whether it is to diversify into another investment or to fund expenses like vacation, remodels, or tuition for their kids, the current price has made those decisions more difficult. A common question we hear is “Should I sell my NKE now or wait?”

NKE has recently experienced declines. From Sep 2022 to August 2023, NKE fell -4.49% while the S&P 500 has risen 15.58%. Nike had a great run of outperforming the S&P 500 for 10 out of 12 years prior to 2021 but has been on a losing streak since.

Is Nike poised to make a comeback? Predicting the future of any stock, or the market overall, is a difficult task. Nike is the industry leader in athletic apparel, particularly in footwear. If Nike can maintain their brand and industry leadership, they are poised to be successful. Achieving outperformance relative to the S&P 500 is not guaranteed.

Let’s look at a few different ways to approach valuing a stock to get a sense of if NKE appears over or undervalued.

🍰 Price / Earnings (P/E) ratio - how much are you paying for each dollar of earnings:

• Pros: Earnings are the profits of the company, and those profits are ultimately what is available for shareholders as dividends

• Cons: Easily manipulated or adjusted by many line items on the income statement, can vary greatly year to year

• Current P/E: 29.84

• 3 year median P/E: 36.26

• Implied Valuation based on $3.23 Earnings Per Share = $117.12

• Verdict: Undervalued, hold your NKE for now

💰 Price / Sales (P/S) ratio – how much are you paying for each dollar of revenue:

• Pros: Less subject to manipulation or fluctuation

• Cons: Doesn’t consider efficiency (i.e. costs necessary to generate the revenues)

• Current P/S: 2.95

• 3 year median P/S: 4.62

• Implied Valued based on $32.63 revenue per share = $150.70

• Verdict: Undervalued, hold your NKE for now

🔄 Price / Free Cash Flow (P/FCF) ratio - How much are you paying for each dollar of operating cash:

• Pros: Shows cash actually available to investors for dividends or stock buybacks, ignores non-cash expenses (i.e. depreciation)

• Cons: Still subject to manipulation based on accounting practices, can vary greatly year to year

• Currentl P/FCF: 31.06

• 3 year median P/FCF: 43.98

• Implied value based on $3.10 free cash flow per share = $136.50

• Verdict: Undervalued, hold your NKE for now

🥣 Average of all ratios:

• Take the average of the implied values for P/E, P/S, and P/FCF

• Implied Value = $134.77

• Verdict: Undervalued, hold your NKE for now

🚀 Price / Earnings Growth (PEG) ratio = P/E ratio / Earning Growth – measure P/E in context of company’s growth rate

• PEG < 1 implies undervalued, PEG > 1 implies overvalued.

• Currently: 29.89 / -16.46 = -1.81

• Decrease in EPS results in negative value.

• Forward 1 year: 1.775

• Verdict: Overvalued (sell your NKE now).

Based on historical averages, NKE currently appears undervalued

You can also take different time periods for the median of these valuations, to see what Nike’s valuation has been like over a longer period of time.

Note: All data courtesy of YCharts as of:  9/15/2023

While Nike may appear severely undervalued on a 3-year basis, the difference is smaller over 5-year and 10-year medians. If you’re thinking about selling, these valuations may give you some guideline thresholds to re-evaluate at.

Based on historical averages for NKE, the stock currently appears undervalued. The decline in NKE’s price in recent years is a big reason for that. Whether the decline will continue, or NKE will return to its historical valuation norms nobody knows. Looking at the basic fundamentals, NKE appears healthy overall. 

• Earnings & revenue have continued to grow.

• NKE has consistently sold its products above the cost of those goods.

• NKE can cover both its current and longer-term debt needs based on existing cash and future expected earnings.

• NKE has not missed a dividend in the past 10 years.

These metrics are by no means the only way to approach whether now is a good time to sell your NKE stock. Other factors to consider:

• The amount of time you think you will work at Nike.

• How much of your Net Worth is tied to NKE?

• When do your Stock Options expire (if applicable)?

• Your comfort level with the ups and downs over time.

• Do you have any major expenses coming up? i.e. house purchase, funding college, etc.

We’re here to help

Beyond these factors and metrics, it is important to integrate your Nike stock decisions within the context of a comprehensive financial plan. If you have questions or would like to discuss whether to hold or sell your NKE stock, please reach out to us at nike@humaninvesting.com.

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What is the yield curve?

The yield curve refers to the current yields of US treasury bonds based upon time until maturity. It’s frequently depicted as a graph to help summarize the data. Typically, a yield curve is upward sloping. Short-term (ST) rates are lower, and long-term (LT) rates are higher.

Wall Street Journal, Bonds & Rates: Yield Curve, April 25, 2023

Reading the yield curve:

• A “steeper” or “steepening” of the yield curve means short-term (ST) rates are lower, and long-term (LT) rates are higher, resulting in a steeper line when comparing

• A “flatter” or “flattening” of the yield curve is when ST rates and LT rates are equivalent, or are getting closer to parity

• An “inverted” yield curve is when ST rates are higher than LT rates, like the current line in the snapshot above.

What determines the yield curve?

All rates on the yield curve are determined by the market. The Fed only controls the federal funds rate, which is only the rate banks lend to each other overnight. Because the market determines the shape of the yield curve, many look to the yield curve as a summary of overall investor sentiment to draw conclusions about expectations for the future. Some important market factors that influence the yield curve include:

• Liquidity (time horizon): The more time until a bond matures, the longer you have your money tied up. As a result, a longer time to maturity (and lower liquidity) bond tends to have a higher yield. This contributes to an upward sloping yield curve.

• Growth expectations: If there are higher growth expectations, you tend to see a steeper yield curve. This is because higher growth tends to lead to higher inflation, and so rates must be higher to achieve positive real returns.

• Demand: As more investors demand a bond, the price goes up. As bond prices go up, yields go down.

Why is the yield curve inverted, and why does that indicate a recession?

The yield curve is inverted because ST rates are higher than LT rates. This is largely due to The Fed raising interest rates to lower inflation. The Fed appears determined to reign in inflation, and has raised ST interest rates to slow down the economy enough to reduce inflation. This is putting upward pressure on ST rates. Many expect this approach to cause a recession, which would lower growth expectations, reducing LT interest rates. The result is the inverted yield curve we see today.

Why does this inversion indicate a recession?

In theory, the market is pricing treasuries so the returns over a given time period are the same, regardless of what you buy today. Let’s use an example to illustrate this.

Say you want to invest $10,000 in treasuries for 2 years, you can make two choices:

1. Choice #1: Buy a single 2 year treasury

   • Currently a ~4.2% yield, so you earn roughly 4.2% for 2 years.

2. Choice #2: Buy a 1 year treasury today, then a new 1 year treasury in 1 year:

   • Currently a ~4.7% yield, so you earn roughly 4.7% for 1 year.

   • After the first year, your treasury will mature, and you will have to purchase a new treasury at whatever the current rates are. The yield curve today is predicting 1 year rates will be at 3.7% in the following year.

   • Your overall return after averaging those rates for each year is 4.2% — the same as buying a 2 year treasury initially!

A lower rate in the future indicates lower growth expectations at that time. Growth expectations being lower (or negative) does not bode well for the health of the economy. The inverted yield curve also has a solid record of predicting recessions, but that doesn’t mean it’s perfect or guaranteed. The yield curve reflects the average sentiment of the markets, which indicates what expectations are. Sometimes expectations create a self-fulfilling prophecy situation, and sometimes expectations are flat out incorrect because of an unexpected shock, like the COVID-19 pandemic.

What does this mean for me and my portfolio?

Ultimately your portfolio should be allocated for the long term, and that should be positioned accordingly. While the inverted yield curve has been a strong predictor of recessions, the timing of that prediction and how significant it’s going to be are not consistent enough to provide an easy 5 step solution for everyone.

If you are positioned towards the more aggressive end of what you are comfortable with, consider reducing risk with some volatility expected on the horizon. Understand that regardless of the yield curve today, the long run expectation is growth and positive returns for the economy and equity markets.

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It’s a new year, and there are still plenty of old questions about the economy & markets. We thought diving into some questions about today’s economy would be helpful.

2023 Economic Outlook

Many different sources (See Table 1) forecast a recession for 2023. With The Fed combating inflation by raising interest rates, expectations are these moves will force the economy into a downturn. The extent of the recession may depend on The Fed’s actions. If inflation recedes quickly, and The Fed cuts rates or stops raising them, that could minimize a recession or possibly avoid a recession entirely—this is called a “soft landing.” If inflation persists, and The Fed is determined to lower inflation in the face of a declining economy, the recession could be worse. However, market forecasts expect The Fed to cut rates in 2023 in response to a recession. The Fed has yet to forecast those same rate cuts. Based on our observations, the odds are we will experience a mild recession in 2023.

2023 Investment Outlook

Despite the prospects of a recession, investments grow over the long run, and volatility is expected. As we’ve previously covered, it can take years for your portfolio to recover from a downturn. We have always seen markets recover to new all-time highs. With a looming recession, 10-year forecasts for US stocks remain positive.

Downturns present a buying opportunity for investors, particularly workers accumulating for retirement. Continuing to purchase when stocks decline is an excellent investment. Saving more when times are tough is challenging. Ensure you are in good financial shape: have 3-6 months of expenses saved in an emergency fund, pay off any high-interest debt, and consistently spend less than you make. Then consider increasing your savings. Increasing your contribution rate is a wonderful forced savings tool if you have a 401(k) or similar plan.
 
Markets and the Economy
You may have heard the market is forward-looking. We know the market is a flawed prognosticator because prices still adjust daily to reflect new information. Let’s examine how closely market bottoms coincide with recessions.
 
There have been 11 recessions since 1950, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Using the NBER’s trough dates (i.e., the end of a recession), we can compare GDP with the S&P to see when both hit their lowest point. Looking at Table 3, the S&P 500 tends to do one of two things:

1. The market is at its worst about the same time as the economy.

2. The market is at its worst approximately six months before the economy bottoms out.

There are some caveats. Market data is live, and markets are open every business day. GDP data comes out quarterly, advance estimates come out nearly a month after the fact, and aren’t fully revised until around 60 days after initial release. For both the market and economy, knowing when you’ve hit bottom is nearly impossible to determine in the moment. Because it’s difficult to know when the worst is over, we recommend staying invested amidst the potential short-term tumult.

Be prepared for some turbulence this year

Economists and market prognosticators are expecting there will be a recession in 2023. The severity of the recession will vary depending on The Fed. The Unemployment rate remains below historical averages at 3.5%. In November 2022, there were nearly 6 million more job openings than job seekers, suggesting the economy can handle some tightening. Trying to time the market or economy bottom remains a guessing game. Long term, the outlook for returns is still strong. Be prepared for some turbulence this year, knowing you are headed in the right direction long term.

Sources
1. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The yield curve as a leading indicator. January 2023.
2. The Wall Street Journal. Economists in WSJ survey still see recession this year despite easing inflation. January 2023.
3. Bloomberg. Economists place 70% chance for US recession in 2023. December 2022.
4. Vanguard. Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2023: Beating back inflation. December 2022.
5. BlackRock. 2023 global outlook. January 2023.
6. Charles Schwab. 2023 market outlook: Cross currents. January 2023.
7. Fidelity. Global outlook 2023: New world disorder. January 2023.
8. Charles Schwab. Schwab's 2023 long-term capital market expectations. January 2023.
9. Vanguard. Market perspectives: December 2022. November 2022.
10. BlackRock. Asset return expectations and uncertainty: as of September 2022 November 2022..
11. Data courtesy of YCharts & NBER

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As a Charted Financial Analyst serving as the firm’s Director of Investments and Compliance, I oversee the construction and management of client portfolios. How we go about investing client capital involves evaluating a variety of factors that move the markets. Given the economic backdrop for 2022, I thought it would be helpful to address a few of the components impacting the economy and subsequent stock and bond market volatility.

Historical trends suggest the current high levels of inflation will not persist.

 Inflation is higher than it has been for decades, exceeding 7.5% in the March to October 2022 numbers, represented in the purple line below. The breakeven rate between a 5-year Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) and a standard Treasury is commonly used as a benchmark for what average inflation over the next five years is expected to be. The graph below shows this in orange below, hovering around 2.34%.

What is causing inflation?

There are broadly two types of inflation:

1. Demand-pull inflation occurs when there is too much demand for a limited supply of items (too much money chasing too few goods).

2. Cost-push inflation occurs when the costs of inputs for producers increase, and those costs are passed along to consumers (too few inputs to produce too many goods).

Both factors are helping push inflation higher. Government stimulus in response to COVID and global supply chains having to adjust in response to the pandemic have both had their part in increasing inflation, along with many other factors.

What brings inflation down?

Macroeconomic theory believes that inflation falls when an economy slows down. A slower economy usually means higher unemployment and less spending and investment. This means there isn’t too much demand-pull inflation occurring because higher unemployment means there are fewer wages chasing the goods produced. Higher unemployment also tends to lead to lower cost-push inflation because the cost of labor typically goes down when unemployment is high.

The Fed is still working on a soft landing.

Higher inflation is not healthy for an economy long term. Banks still want to make money even when inflation is high, so they lend at higher rates to ensure they still make a profit after accounting for inflation. Higher interest rates result in a higher cost of borrowing, making any investment (buying a house, going to college, launching a new business, building a new production facility, etc.) more expensive. Households and companies invest less, which means fewer productive and good investments happen, slowing down the overall economy.

Because high inflation is unhealthy for an economy, the Federal Reserve (aka “The Fed”, the US central bank) is raising interest rates. The Fed’s goal is to raise interest rates high enough to slow down the economy and bring down inflation. The concern is that The Fed will be too aggressive in raising interest rates and cause a sharp economic downturn. The hope is The Fed can execute a soft landing, slowing down the economy enough to reign in inflation but not slowing down so much to trigger a major recession.

The job market is still experiencing labor scarcity.

Currently, there are about 5 million more open jobs than people looking for a job. Unemployment is below 4%, near the historical lows we were experiencing pre-pandemic. Due to labor scarcity, employees are seeing their wages rise.

The overall economy is seeing consistent growth.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most used measure of the size of an economy. Real GDP (rGDP) accounts for inflation. The orange line is a “trendline” for real GDP, based on the average growth of rGDP from 2012 to 2017. As you can see, GDP is not far off from what would have been expected if the COVID downturn & recovery had never occurred. While the first half of 2022 had two-quarters of negative GDP growth (a common definition of a recession), Q3 2022 saw the economy grow.

Company earnings are still increasing despite downturns.

The following chart illustrates earnings growth compared to the S&P 500. The market tends is forward-looking, setting prices based on what is expected to happen. Current fears about inflation & The Fed triggering a downturn by raising interest rates too much too quickly are pushing the market down. Earnings reflect what companies earned in the previous three months. While there is a lot of anxiety about the state of the economy, companies are continuing to earn money and will continue to do so even in a downturn.

What does this mean for you and your portfolio?

In conclusion, there are contradictory messages. The economy quickly recovered from the global pandemic, and the workers are enjoying a solid labor market with wages rising. The positive economic news is contrasted with poor investor experience in the stock market. Concerns about high inflation and The Fed’s anticipated aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation have the market worrying about a recession. With all this happening, companies have continued to grow their earnings.

While there is conflicting information in the short term, we continue to anticipate long-term growth in the economy and stock market. Having a sound financial plan that accounts for downturns and uncertainties is crucial. Feel free to reach out if you have any questions about your plan or have had any changes in your financial situation.

All data courtesy of YCharts Nov 29, 2022.

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