A financial plan is a structured approach to managing one’s financial life. It is not merely a spreadsheet or a collection of investment products—it is a comprehensive framework that organizes income, expenses, savings, risk management, taxes, and long-term goals into a cohesive, actionable strategy. When constructed properly, a financial plan enhances decision-making, reduces uncertainty, and improves financial outcomes (Nissenbaum, Raasch, & Ratner, 2004).

Yet if financial planning is so powerful, why do so few follow through?

The answer often lies not in math, but in mindset. Research shows that even financially literate individuals struggle to plan for the future when they lack self-control, future orientation, or supportive social norms (Tomar, Baker, Kumar, & Hoffmann, 2021). A well-designed plan must account not just for assets and liabilities—but for human behavior. That’s why the best financial plans are often paired with an accredited fiduciary advisor, who offers a simple, visual, and tailored approach to help you make decisions.

At its core, a financial plan helps individuals clarify what matters most and align their resources accordingly. Whether navigating early adulthood, managing a growing family, or preparing for retirement, individuals benefit from a written plan that reflects financial priorities and personal values. In my work as a financial advisor and educator, I have seen that the most significant breakthroughs often come not from more money, but from more clarity.

the purpose of a financial plan

The purpose of a financial plan is twofold: to organize current financial resources and to make informed decisions about the future. This may sound straightforward, but the complexity of modern financial life often makes it difficult for individuals to answer even basic questions such as, "Can I afford this?" or "Am I on track?" A financial plan provides a framework to answer these questions thoughtfully and methodically.

More than a static document, a financial plan is a living tool. It should evolve alongside an individual's life stages, economic conditions, and shifting priorities. According to Nissenbaum, Raasch, and Ratner (2004), regularly reviewed and updated plans yield significantly better financial outcomes over time.

It starts with defining your goals

Goal-setting is the anchor of any financial plan. Without clear goals, even the most sophisticated strategies can lose direction. Goals give context to numbers and bring meaning to saving and investing. They can be short-term (saving for a vacation), mid-term (purchasing a home), or long-term (funding retirement or creating a legacy).

One of the most effective frameworks for goal setting is the SMART method—specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound. Goals should inspire and direct behavior. In my experience, clients who articulate their goals clearly are far more likely to follow through on their plans.

components of a comprehensive plan

A thorough financial plan includes several interdependent elements, each of which contributes to the individual's or household's overall financial health. According to Ernst & Young’s Personal Financial Planning Guide (Nissenbaum et al., 2004), the five essential components are:

1. Cash Flow and Budgeting
   Understanding income and expenses is the foundation of any financial plan. A clear cash flow picture allows individuals to make informed decisions about saving, spending, and giving. Budgeting is not about restriction; it is about intentionality. When individuals budget effectively, they begin to control their money rather than letting money control them.

2. Risk Management and Insurance
   Life is unpredictable. A good financial plan includes appropriate insurance coverage to protect against major disruptions—including illness, disability, death, or property loss. While not exciting, insurance serves as a financial firewall. Emergency savings also fall into this category, with most professionals recommending a reserve of 3 to 6 months of essential expenses.

3. Tax Planning
   Tax efficiency is a core pillar of financial planning. Smart planning reduces unnecessary tax burdens and aligns financial decisions with long-term goals. This includes strategic use of tax-advantaged accounts, such as IRAs and 401(k)s, as well as decisions around capital gains, charitable giving, and income timing.

4. Investment Planning
   Investments must serve the plan—not the other way around. A financial plan defines the purpose, time horizon, and risk tolerance for each investment goal. This helps investors avoid emotional decisions and focus on long-term strategies. Diversification, asset allocation, and periodic rebalancing are all part of this disciplined approach.

5. Retirement and Estate Planning
   A financial plan must consider the future. This includes projecting future income needs, optimizing Social Security benefits, managing required minimum distributions (RMDs), and crafting an estate plan that reflects one’s legacy goals. Planning ahead ensures that wealth is transferred intentionally and tax-efficiently.

Building a financial plan: a step-by-step process

While the components of a financial plan are well-established, the process of creating one can be deeply personal. Below is a common approach used by both individuals and professionals:

1. Establish Goals and Priorities
   Start by asking what matters most. What do you want your money to do for you? What are your non-negotiables? Apply the SMART method in making them more attainable. Writing these goals down is a powerful first step.

2. Gather Data
   Collect all relevant financial information, including income, expenses, debts, assets, insurance policies, and legal documents. The accuracy of your plan depends on the quality of your data.

3. Analyze and Diagnose
   Identify gaps, inefficiencies, or risks. This includes assessing debt levels, reviewing savings rates, stress-testing for emergencies, and evaluating investment alignment.

4. Develop Strategies
   Design strategies that address the specific needs uncovered in your analysis. This might include refinancing high-interest debt, increasing retirement contributions, or adjusting your investment allocation.

5. Implement the Plan
   Execution is where many plans fall apart. Automate good behavior when possible—automated savings, investment contributions, and bill payments reduce reliance on willpower.

6. Monitor and Review
   Plans should be reviewed at least annually, and anytime there is a significant life event (e.g., marriage, new job, birth of a child). Adjustments should be proactive, not reactive.

Behavioral considerations in financial planning

Financial planning is as much about psychology as it is about math. Behavioral finance has shown that individuals often act irrationally with money due to cognitive biases, emotional reactions, and social pressures. A written financial plan serves as a behavioral anchor—a tool that reduces the likelihood of impulsive decisions.

Recent research reinforces the role of psychology in retirement financial planning. Tomar, Baker, Kumar, and Hoffmann (2021) identify several psychological determinants that significantly impact whether individuals engage in effective planning. These include future time perspective (the ability to think long-term), self-control, planning attitudes, and financial knowledge. In other words, it is not enough to know what to do; one must also be inclined to do it. Social norms and perceived behavioral control also play an influential role, suggesting that a supportive environment enhances financial planning behavior.

Research has shown that investors with written plans are more likely to stay invested during market volatility, rebalance their portfolios regularly, and avoid the pitfalls of market timing. A plan brings structure, and structure supports discipline.

common mistakes and how to avoid them

Even well-intentioned individuals fall prey to common planning mistakes. These include:

• Neglecting emergency savings

• Underestimating expenses in retirement

• Taking on too much investment risk

• Failing to review insurance coverage

• Overlooking tax implications of financial decisions

• Not discussing financial goals with a spouse or partner

Avoiding these mistakes begins with awareness and regularly revisiting the plan. A good advisor doesn’t just build a plan—they help you adapt it.

the value of working with an advisor

While many individuals can build a basic plan on their own, the guidance of a fiduciary financial advisor can add significant value. Advisors provide objectivity, technical expertise, and behavioral coaching. At Human Investing, we believe our highest calling is to serve as guides—helping clients navigate complexity with wisdom and clarity.

Importantly, not all financial advisors are held to the same standard. A fiduciary advisor is legally obligated to act in your best interest. Yet even among those who use the fiduciary label, fewer than five percent operate without receiving any form of commission (Fisher, 2025). That’s why the true fiduciary standard—free from all commissions—should be the baseline, not the exception.

turn intention into action

A financial plan is not just a document—it’s a decision. It reflects your willingness to take control of your future instead of drifting into it. The most successful outcomes aren’t reserved for the wealthiest or the most analytical—they’re earned by those who start, stay consistent, and make adjustments along the way.

If you’ve made it this far, you already care about your financial future. The next step is simple, but powerful: act. Whether it’s writing down your goals, scheduling time to review your budget, or meeting with a fiduciary advisor, do one thing today that your future self will thank you for.

Your money needs a plan. And now, you have the framework to build one that works.

References
Fisher, P. (2025, February 14). Only 4.92% of advisors are true fiduciaries. Is yours? Human Investing. https://www.humaninvesting.com/450-journal/only-5-percent-of-advisors-are-true-fiduciaries

Nissenbaum, M., Raasch, B. J., & Ratner, C. L. (2004). Ernst & Young's personal financial planning guide. John Wiley & Sons.

Tomar, S., Baker, H. K., Kumar, S., & Hoffmann, A. O. (2021). Psychological determinants of retirement financial planning behavior. Journal of Business Research, 133, 432–449.

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Disclosures: Human Investing is a registered investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. The information contained herein is believed to be accurate as of the publication date but is subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers should consult with a qualified financial advisor to assess their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions.

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Volatile markets test more than portfolios—they test patience. It’s easy to feel unsettled when headlines scream, and market volatility ensues. But the most important thing you can do as an investor is also the simplest: don’t let emotions get the best of you. 

In my nearly 30 years of advising clients, I’ve seen over and over again: the clients who succeed are the ones who manage their emotions, not just their money. The smartest thing you can do right now is stay calm and stay the course. The plan is working—even when it doesn’t feel like it. My experience has been that history has a way of rewarding those who stay calm, stay invested, and stay focused on their well-crafted financial plan.

At Human Investing, we believe that behavior, not timing or speculation, is what separates long-term success from short-term regret. For clients who have been with us for over 20 years, you’ve seen firsthand how a steady, disciplined approach can weather storms and grow wealth through them. For those new to our firm, please know that trust is the foundation of everything we do. We don’t just manage portfolios, we help guide people through uncertainty with clarity, care, and confidence.

To better understand the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment approach, it is helpful to examine five common psychological biases that often lead investors to deviate from sound decision-making. Drawing on both empirical research and professional experience, this section explores how emotional responses can override strategic thinking—particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty and market volatility—and outlines methods used to help clients remain focused on long-term objectives.

1. Loss aversion: When pain is louder than logic 

Researchers Kahneman, Knetsch, and Thaler (1991) discuss the psychological factors that drive loss aversion. Loss aversion is not just an investing concept; it’s a fundamental part of human psychology. Research shows that losses are felt about twice as painful as equivalent gains are perceived as pleasurable. In the brain, a $100 loss doesn’t just “sting”—it screams. And when markets drop, that emotional volume can drown out logic, strategy, and even years of sound advice.

This isn’t just a theory. I've seen it firsthand for a few decades—watching clients grapple with fear during the dotcom bust, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 COVID crash, and more recent volatility. In each case, the market eventually recovered. But those who let fear dictate their choices often miss the recovery, lock in their losses, and derail their long-term plans.

Here’s what makes loss aversion so dangerous: it feels rational. When the market drops 20%, the brain doesn’t think, “This is temporary.” It thinks, “Get out before it gets worse.” That impulse can feel like wisdom. But in reality, it's a trap.

The dislocation occurs when investors stop viewing a dip as part of the journey and begin to see it as the destination. Their long-term goals fade from view. The carefully designed plan becomes irrelevant. All that matters is stopping the pain.

But that short-term relief often comes at a prohibitive cost. Investors who sell at the bottom lock in their losses and are frequently too emotionally exhausted—or too afraid—to re-enter the market in time for the rebound. And rebound it almost always does. History shows that the market has consistently rewarded those who stay invested through downturns, not those who try to time their exits and re-entries.

2. Herding: When “everyone’s doing it” feels safer than thinking 

There’s a reason why stampedes are dangerous—not everyone in the crowd is running toward opportunity. Some are running from fear. 

In investing, we refer to this behavior as herding—the instinct to follow the crowd, particularly during times of uncertainty. Scharfstein and Stein (1990) were among the earliest to formally investigate and publish on the concept of herd mentality. We are indeed social creatures, hardwired to look to others for cues when we’re unsure. But in the markets, that instinct can be costly.

When prices drop and headlines grow loud, it’s natural to wonder: “What does everyone else know that I don’t?” You see friends moving to cash, analysts shouting about doom, and articles predicting disaster. The pull to join the herd becomes magnetic. But the crowd is often most unified at the wrong time, buying high out of excitement or selling low out of fear.

Here’s the cognitive dislocation: when fear spreads, we confuse consensus with correctness. If enough people are panicking, their emotion starts to feel like evidence. But markets are not democratic. The loudest voices are not always the wisest, and just because many are moving in the same direction doesn’t mean it’s the right one.

3. Recency bias: When yesterday becomes forever 

Tversky and Kahneman (1974) laid the foundational research on recency bias. They determine that “…the impact of seeing a house burning on the subjective probability of such accidents is probably greater than reading about a fire in the local paper. Furthermore, recent occurrences are likely to be relatively more available than earlier occurrences (p. 1127).” 

Put differently, individuals often extrapolate recent market movements into the future, believing that a market decline will persist or that a rally will continue indefinitely. This cognitive distortion, known as recency bias, reflects the tendency to overweight recent experiences when forming expectations about future outcomes.

It’s a mental shortcut that makes sense on the surface. After all, if it’s been raining for three days, we naturally reach for an umbrella on day four. But in the markets, this shortcut becomes a trap.

The dislocation happens when investors confuse a recent event with a long-term trend. They think: “The market’s been down the last two months—maybe this time is different. Maybe it won’t recover.” Or: “Tech has been hot all year—maybe it always will be.” This kind of thinking leads to chasing what has already happened or fleeing from what is already priced in.

Here’s the problem: the market doesn’t move in straight lines. It zigs, zags, and surprises. The best days often follow the worst. Yet, when recency bias takes hold, investors tend to anchor on the latest data point and overlook the broader context.

I’ve witnessed this bias unfold in every major market event since 1996. This ‘cognitive dislocation’ was particularly acute during the downturn from 2000 to 2002, when markets declined by 10%, 10%, and then 20%. But those who were paralyzed by recency bias—those who assumed the storm would never end—missed the sunshine that followed.

4. Sentiment: When moods masquerade as markets

The market is often described as a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term (Graham, 2006). That’s another way of saying: in the short term, emotion can drive price more than value. And that emotion, called market sentiment, can be just as contagious and unpredictable as the weather.

Sentiment isn’t about fundamentals. It’s about how investors feel about the future. When people feel optimistic, they see opportunity in every dip. When they feel anxious, even the strongest companies look shaky. This is where the dislocation happens: investors begin to substitute their mood for actual analysis.

In times of high sentiment, people often buy more than they should, take on more risk than they realize, or ignore warning signs. During low sentiment, they often underinvest, sell too soon, or abandon long-term strategies altogether—not because the plan changed, but because their feelings did.

I’ve witnessed this in action many times since 1996, particularly in 2008, when panic dominated sentiment, and many investors fled the market near the bottom. The truth is, markets don’t care how we feel. But our feelings often shape how we interpret the market. That’s why at Human Investing, we spend as much time helping clients manage their emotions as we do managing their investments. We help you separate how you feel from what’s actually happening.

Your plan is designed to withstand emotional swings. It assumes there will be times when the market is overconfident, and times when it’s too afraid. That’s why we don’t react to moods. We respond to goals. Because when you confuse sentiment for truth, your portfolio becomes a mirror of your emotions. But when you trust your plan, your portfolio becomes a reflection of your purpose.

5. Emotional echo chambers: When biases team up to derail you

If loss aversion, herding, recency bias, and sentiment were minor on their own, we might be able to brush them off. But they don’t stay in their lanes. These biases often compound, amplifying each other until an investor is no longer thinking clearly. That’s what we call an emotional echo chamber—a space where your own fears are repeated and reinforced until they sound like facts.

Here’s how it plays out:

• The market dips, triggering loss aversion—“I can’t afford to lose more.”

• You see others selling, which activates herding—“Everyone’s getting out. Maybe I should, too.”

• You assume the recent downturn is the new normal—recency bias—“It’s just going to get worse.”

• Your confidence drops, and negative sentiment clouds your judgment—“I don’t feel safe, so maybe I’m not.” 

Suddenly, your investment decisions are no longer tied to your long-term goals—a chorus of emotional responses drives them, each one echoing the others. This is the moment investors often make their biggest mistakes: abandoning well-designed plans, selling at market lows, or shifting strategies midstream out of fear.

I’ve seen this cycle emerge during every major downturn. What I’ve learned is this: when fear gets loud, clarity gets quiet. Investors don’t just lose money in these moments—they lose confidence, perspective, and peace of mind.

At Human Investing, our job is to help you break out of that echo chamber. We’re here to re-center you when everything feels off-balance, to remind you of the purpose of your financial plan, and to bring you back to your long-term vision when the short-term noise becomes deafening.

We believe that staying invested is not just a financial decision, it’s an emotional discipline. That’s why we design portfolios that align with your comfort zone and why we lead with planning. Because a sound financial plan doesn’t just grow your wealth, it protects your thinking.

When emotional noise is high, we help you find quiet confidence. When biases clash in your head, we help you hear your goals again. And most importantly, when you start to feel like you’re the only one holding steady, we’re here to remind you—you’re not.

Empirical evidence

If the five behavioral prompts are not enough to encourage you to focus on your plan, a 40-year perspective on market ups and downs can provide an essential viewpoint. 

Please see Figure 1 at the end of this document. In it, you’ll see the average intra-year drop for the S&P 500 is approximately 14%, based on historical data going back several decades.

This means that in a typical year, the market will experience a peak-to-trough decline of around 14%—even in years that end up positive overall.

Here’s a quick breakdown:

From 1980 through 2023, the S&P 500 had: 

• Positive returns in about 75% of those years

• But it still experienced an average intra-year decline of ~14%

Why it matters:

Many investors panic during temporary drops, thinking something abnormal is happening. In reality, a 10–15% drop in a given year is a feature, not a flaw, of long-term investing. It’s part of the process, not a sign to change course.

References:

Graham, B. (2006). The intelligent investor: The definitive book on value investing (Rev. ed., J. Zweig, Commentary). Harper-Business. (Original work published 1949)

Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. L., & Thaler, R. H. (1991). Anomalies: The endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias. Journal of Economic perspectives, 5(1), 193-206.

Scharfstein, D. S., & Stein, J. C. (1990). Herd behavior and investment. The American economic review, 465-479.

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases: Biases in judgments reveal some heuristics of thinking under uncertainty. science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.

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Disclosures: These market returns are based on past performance of an index for illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investing involves risk, including the loss of principal.  Index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of an actual investment. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The information provided in this communication is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Market conditions can change at any time, and there is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful.

Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in declining markets. Asset allocation and portfolio strategies do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

The opinions expressed in this communication reflect our best judgment at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Any references to specific securities, asset classes, or financial strategies are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations.

Human Investing is a SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement by the Comission. Please consult with your financial advisor to determine the appropriateness of any investment strategy based on your individual circumstances.

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A BOOK FOR THE SAVER IN ALL OF US

Becoming a 401(k) Millionaire isn’t your typical retirement guide. With 30 years in finance, Dr. Peter Fisher shares personal insights and real stories to help you plan with confidence.

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It’s no secret that Nike has been going through a tough time with the recent rounds of layoffs. This can create concern and uneasiness around a Nike employee’s livelihood and how it may affect their financial picture. As we have been actively guiding our Nike clients through this season, we wanted to share things to consider if you were or will be impacted by these layoffs.

Understand Your Severance Package

Nike has a standard severance agreement and package that includes a one-time payout of cash based on your level and tenure at Nike. This can range from 4 weeks to 48 weeks of salary.

In addition, there is often a continuation of health insurance through COBRA that includes a subsidy of the cost for around 6 months. This provides some time to transition to a different health insurance plan if that is right for you.

If you have any accrued PTO that you haven’t used, this will be paid out to you in cash after officially leaving Nike. This is often extra cash that people are not expecting and can help create some comfort during an uncomfortable time.

Lastly, you may still be eligible for the PSP bonus paid out in August as long as you are still employed anytime in May (the last month of the Fiscal Year).

Create a Strategy for Deferred Comp Distributions

If you contributed to the Nike Deferred Compensation Plan, leaving Nike will typically trigger distributions according to the schedule you designated when enrolling. This can range from a one-time lump sum or installments over 5, 10, or 15 years. For some, this can be a way to supplement income. However, for others who don’t need the funds, these distributions can create a tax issue to strategize around. These payments are sent out quarterly, so if this is needed for cash flow you should plan accordingly.

Plan for your Stock Options and RSUs

Any vested but unexercised stock options typically need to be exercised within 90 days of leaving Nike, unless you qualify for the special retirement benefits at age 55 or age 60 (you keep unvested options and can sell for lesser of expiration or 4 years). At this time, you typically will lose any unvested options or RSUs.

During larger layoffs, there can be enhanced vesting of options and RSUs, where upcoming vests within a year will accelerate and vest. In addition, Nike can also provide you with more time to exercise your stock options like up to 1 year instead of 90 days. When Nike stock price is struggling like it is now, it makes your exercise decisions in a small window difficult. We would recommend working with your financial advisor to determine a defined strategy to maximize the benefit and minimize taxes.

Keep track of your PSUs and ESPP

Normally, you need to be employed at Nike at the vest date to receive your PSUs. In a situation of Reduction in workforce (larger layoffs), you can still receive any PSUs if the vesting date is within one year of termination.

Any ESPP that has been contributed but not purchased yet will be refunded to you. In addition, you have more control over your ESPP shares that you have purchased previously as these can be held as long as you want. This provides an opportunity to be patient and strategic on any sale of this stock.

Prepare to mitigate tax liability

All the benefits outlined above come with tax implications that are not always easy to see. These items can quickly add up to large amounts of taxable income, which can push your income into high tax brackets. In addition, the tax is often under-withheld (22% Federal and 8% State), which can lead to a significant tax bill in April if not accounted for properly.

Know your 401K options

This recommendation depends on each person’s situation. Nike has a strong investment fund lineup, and you should compare that to any other place that would replace it. However, leaving your 401(k) at Nike requires more activity and maintenance since it does not have an auto-rebalancing feature, which would periodically sell funds that drift from their target allocation. For example, if the large company stock fund was targeted at 60% and grew to 64%, you should periodically bring that back to the 60% target to maintain the proper risk/return mix. Another factor to consider is the desire to make Backdoor Roth IRA contributions if you have extra funds for retirement savings.

Support when transitioning into the next job

The cash you receive from benefits like severance, PTO payout, and stock sales can help provide some comfort to your situation. While you are in transition with your job, we recommend creating a system to feel like you are receiving a paycheck replacement with your cash to reduce anxiety and bring normalcy to your day-to-day financial life. An example of this system would be taking your net benefits payout and depositing it in a savings account, then setting up bi-weekly transfers to your checking account to simulate your paychecks.

All these considerations are tied to a person’s long-term financial plan. Through financial planning projections and scenario planning, you can help determine what the next job needs to look like to achieve your goals for retirement, kids’ education, and lifestyle. It can provide you with the information to know if you need a comparable compensation package to Nike or if you could take a job with lesser pay that could be more fun or less stressful.

Being laid off from any job often creates much uncertainty, stress, and concern. With the right preparation, planning, and advice, it can be a smoother transition, and you may end up in an even better place than where you started.

If you have questions about preparing for or navigating a current layoff at Nike, please feel free to contact us at nike@humaninvesting.com.  

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The financial world can be a confusing place filled with jargon, technicalities, and little to no guarantees. Research suggests that those who are financially literate tend to have better financial outcomes. Financially literacy is typically measured by asking some core financial concept questions. Let’s walk through some financial literacy questions from the National Financial Capability Study, and explain the why behind the answer. Feel free to guess and score yourself at the end:

Question 1 - interest:

Suppose you had $100 in a savings account and the interest rate was 2% per year. After 5 years, how much do you think you would have in the account if you left the money to grow?

A. Less than $102
B. Exactly $102
C. More than $102

Answer: C, more than $102.

Explanation: The key part here is “After 5 years”. We are told the interest rate is 2% per year. That means every year, 2% gets added to our principal balance. To break it down year by year:

The interest earned increases each year. This is due to compound interest: the original principal ($100) grows, and the interest you earned previously (in year 2, $2) both earn interest. At the end of 5 years, we have $110.41 which is C More than $102.

Why this matters: Interest affects you when you save money to grow it, or borrow money to pay it back later. Knowing how interest can work for or against you is critical for financial success.

Question 2 - inflation:

Imagine the interest rate on your savings account was 1% per year and inflation was 2% per year. After 1 year, how much would you be able to buy with the money in this account?

A. Less than today
B. Exactly the same
C. More than today

Answer: A, Less Than today.

Explanation: They key here is the inflation rate is higher than the savings rate. Inflation is growing at 2%, meaning the price of goods (rent, utilities, food, cars, etc.) is going up by 2% each year. The cost of $100 of goods today will be $102 in 1 year. Your interest on savings is growing at 1% a year. That means in 1 year you will have $101 to spend on goods. In 1 year, you will have $101 to buy $102 worth of goods. Your ability to buy is A less than today.

Why this matters: Even if you keep your money “safe” in the bank or under the mattress, inflation is going to make that money less and less valuable. Thus why investing is so important. Investing can be scary due to downturns in the market, but ultimately the odds are in your favor to grow your money over time. Unless you can save significant portions of your income, growing your savings faster than inflation is critical for being able to retire.

Question 3 - Risk Diversification:

Buying a single company’s stock usually provides a safer return than a stock mutual fund.

A. True
B. False

Answer: B, False.

Explanation: To answer this question correctly, it is important to understand both risk and that a mutual fund owns a variety of companies. They keyword here is safer. Financial markets have two types of risk: market risk and company-specific risk (aka systematic risk and nonsystematic risk respectively).

Market risk refers to risk all companies face. Examples of market risk include a change to the US tax code, a global pandemic, or shifts in consumer tastes like a shift from fast food to organic freshly prepared food. You will always face market risk because every company is exposed to these risks. Company-specific risk refers to risks unique to one company. Examples of company-specific risk include sudden changes in management, a press release about product defects, mass recalls, or a superior/cheaper product released by a rival company. Because you own a variety of companies in a stock mutual fund, you diversify away (i.e. reduce your risk) if any single, specific company has a terrible event.

Why this matters: Don’t invest all your money in one company. Especially if you work for that company, and your compensation is based on the company doing well. By spreading out your investments, you reduce your risk of catastrophic returns, and smooth out the ride so you can sleep at night.

Question 4 - interest of the life of a loan:

A 15-year mortgage typically requires higher monthly payments than a 30-year mortgage, but the interest paid over the life of the loan will be less

A. True
B. False

Answer: A, True.

Explanation: Because of the shorter life of the mortgage loan, you pay less interest. Remember in question 1, interest compounds every year. When you borrow money, that compounding works against you. Therefore, the faster you are paying off debt, the less time for interest to compound and grow the total amount you have to payoff. The monthly payments are typically larger, but the overall interest paid is less.

To illustrate with numbers, let’s look at the difference between a 15 year & 30 year mortgage, assuming a 5% interest rate for both:

Why this matters: You can see from the example how much money is saved by opting for a 15 year mortgage. Can you afford that extra monthly payment? That’s worth investigating, but you’ll never explore your choices if you don’t know what they are. You can also usually get a lower interest rate for shorter term debts, which saves you even more money. Anytime you borrow any amount of money, the faster you can pay it off, the less you will pay total. Even if you don’t get a lower rate on the debt, if you pay off the principal sooner, that means there’s less interest compounding against you. When looking to borrow money, evaluate what term (length of time) works best for you and your budget. You want to minimize your cost of borrowing, but you also want to give yourself enough flexibility that you’re confident you will make all those payments on time, regardless of what life brings.

Question 5 - Bond prices and interest:

If interest rates rise, what will typically happen to bond prices?

A. They will fall
B. They will stay the same
C. They will rise

Answer: A, they will fall.

Explanation: This is the question most people get wrong. A bond is government or corporate debt. The government or company pays you coupons (interest payments) based on the issued interest rate. At the end of the bond’s life, it matures, and you get the principal back.

Imagine Disney issues bonds paying 5% interest, the current market rate. You purchase a bond for $1,000, and you get a $50 coupon payment from Mickey Mouse every year until the bond matures. If interest rates rise next year (say to 8%), and Disney issues new bonds, they will issue them at the new interest rate. Your neighbor Laura decides to buy $1,000, and she gets an $80 coupon from Mickey Mouse every year. Because interest rates rose, the value of your bond paying $50/month goes down in value, less than $1,000, because the $1,000 could buy Laura’s bond paying $80/month. The reverse if also true. If rates had fallen to 3%, Laura’s bond would only pay her $30, and your $50/month bond would be worth more than $1,000.

Why this matters: Interest rates change over time. This causes bond prices to change. Bonds will still be less volatile than equities, but they do also fluctuate in value. Don’t panic when you see interest rates rise, and your bond prices going down in value. This is both normal and expected. Rising interest rates are also usually a healthy sign for the economy, and so your equities will generally be rising in value to help offset the loss in value of your bonds. The reverse is also true here. Falling interest rates tend to indicate a less healthy economy (think about when rates have dropped significantly & quickly; the 07-08 financial crisis and COVID-19) which means falling stock prices. Because they don’t tend to move together (uncorrelated), bonds and stocks are an excellent pair for smoothing out your investment returns.

How did you do?

If you got some questions wrong, I hope you understand the why behind the answers and how to utilize this knowledge to better your financial life. If you have questions about financial vocabulary or systems you’d like me to blog about, please email me at andrewg@humaninvesting.com. If want to talk to an advisor, please email us at hi@humaninvesting.com.

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Target-date funds do not stop when they reach the target year. For example, Vanguard Target Date 2015 (VTXVX) still exists today even though it is 2020. Your dollars will not disappear!

Instead, target-date funds are designed to continue to serve the assumed age demographic of a specific retirement year. To provide a deeper understanding, we have outlined what will happen to 2020 target-date funds.

Target-date funds are designed one of two ways:

1. “Through” target-date funds: Continue to shift their asset mix (less stocks, more bonds) over a predetermined number of years. The dollars invested in a target-date fund will remain inside the fund.

2. “To” target-date funds: Reach the designated target year and merge with a retirement fund that maintains a specified asset allocation over time.

Either way – “through” or “to” target-date funds continue to be invested, and there is no required action-item for investors once the target year is reached.

2020 Target-Date Fund ExampleS

Since 2020 is a target year; let us look at what will happen to popular target-date funds.

Vanguard Target Retirement 2020 (VTWNX)

Vanguard’s glide path continues through for seven years (in this case 2027) until the asset allocation is 30% stocks and 70% bonds. After the seventh year, dollars merge into Vanguard Target Retirement Income (VTINX).

Fidelity Freedom 2020 Fund (FFFDX)

Fidelity Freedom’s glide path continues through for nearly twenty years (in this case 2040) until the asset allocation is 24% stocks and 76% bonds. After that, dollars merge into Fidelity Freedom Income (FFFAX).

T.Rowe Retirement 2020 Fund )TRRBX)

T.Rowe’s glide path continues through for thirty years (in this case 2050) until the asset allocation is 20% stocks and 80% bonds. These dollars do not merge with another fund, but instead maintain this asset allocation until the investor withdraws all dollars from the account.

AGAIN, YOUR DOLLARS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INVESTED OVER TIME.

The use and protection of retirement dollars (beyond a target year) is embedded in a fund’s lifecycle. Regardless of whether a target-date fund operates ‘through’ or ‘to’ the target year, your dollars will continue to be invested over time.

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