“So that Each of us Has Just Enough.”
 

I just wrapped up a call with a non-profit client who has been part of my life for over fifteen years. The 501(c)3 is stewarded by many bright and caring individuals, who serve the needs of the poor, isolated, and elderly. Under normal circumstances, they, like many of us, can make ends meet. However, in times like these, where unemployment is rising, and a recession looming, contributions go down, and their ability to meet the needs of the marginalized is diminished.

We are encouraged, through the wisdom of great leaders of the past, that each of us should have "just enough." To be sure, we should take care of our own needs, but also the needs of others. This is not a political statement. Instead, it's an observation about a client and non-profit that we need to be mindful of others—particularly now. As I've raced to make sure my company, employees, family, and clients are in good shape, I've failed to think beyond that, to the non-profit community and to the many vulnerable individuals and families they serve—shame on me.

For some of us, the current needs may be significant, and the shortfall great. For others, the gap to fill may be small. However, for each of us, to whom much has been given, much is also expected, and now is our time. I learned a lot today. I became aware of the massive funding gap that many non-profits are facing, and the growing need of those in which they serve. I write this in the hope that each of us can look beyond our comforts to consider the needs of others. There is a massive need (and current funding shortfall) for most non-profits. Please contemplate an extra contribution, big or small, so that each of us (particularly the least amongst us) has “just enough.”    

 

 
 

Related Articles

Another Day of Corona-advising Under my Belt and More Lessons Learned
 

A global pandemic and dislocated markets can teach us a lot if we take the time to listen and observe what our clients are saying.  Today was a day full of trying to explain the concept of diversification.  Where, in a single account, we can own both stocks and bonds— with each having a distinct purpose.  Given the prolific stock market sell-off, if a client has any amount of equity investments in their account, they are down, almost universally.  If a client has one million invested and one-half of those funds are in stocks that are down thirty percent, their overall portfolio is down $150,000 or 15%, even with the other fifty percent of their account in CDs or Cash.  For some, this is overwhelming, and more than they can handle.  But should it be? 

“All my investments are at risk.”

Today, I learned from this situation, that a client thought the 15% loss meant that all of their investments in their account were risky.  In reality, one half of their account is in FDIC insured CDs and U.S. Treasuries—collectively, some of the safest investments in the world.  While at the same time, just half of their account was causing the loss, and the "risky" portion of their account was half in blue-chip, dividend-paying companies.  So, what was I missing or, the client not getting?  Why were they freaked out by the volatility when they had TEN YEARS worth of cash and bonds on hand?  Enter the theory of mental accounting and the concept of categorization or labeling.

The Decisions That Comes From Mental Accounting

Mental accounting posits that people treat money differently—particularly when looking at its intended use.  For this client (and probably many of us,) it would have been better to put their bonds and safe investments into one account and their riskier and more volatile investments in another.  Even though they would have no more or less invested in bonds or stocks, the mere fact that they are separated allows for them to categorize or label those accounts "safe" and "risky" and know there is a moat between the two of them. 

Fortunately for this client and me, I was able to explain that although not in separate accounts, the investments were, in fact, different, with one portion of the account safe, and the other part of the account earmarked for drawing on many years from now.  Regardless, I learned a valuable lesson about the cognitive dislocation, and bias, of mental accounting.  And, how regardless of whether I have accounted for the proper mix of stocks and bonds in a client account, if they don't get it, they may force my hand and require that I sell because they view it all as risky.  Noted.

Understanding the Role of Your Retirement Accounts

Similarly, I was speaking to another client that was concerned about their 401(k) account and the recent volatility.  They asked if we should change things up given; we had "lost money." They were suggesting these funds should feel more like their cash and bond accounts.  After checking to make sure I wasn't losing my mind and seeing that they were invested 75% in equities and didn't need to access the money for twenty plus years, I wondered what I was missing.  What I was missing was another bias that is part of the theory of mental accounting.   

Wealth accounts and "money hierarchy" was first explored by behavioral pioneers Dr. Hersh Shefrin and Dr. Richard Thaler (1988).  In their analysis, they suggest there is a money hierarchy whereby funds can be placed in locations in order of how tempting it can be to gain access.  Practically, a checking and savings account are easily accessible in "in-reach," therefore, they should be invested conservatively. While at the same time, a 401(k) or IRA is for later in life and relatively inaccessible and "out of reach" and, as a result, should be invested more aggressively than checking and savings.

For this client, I was able to explain that although their equity allocation was more significant than other accounts, the reason was that this was a long-term account.  Further, I shared that these funds should be out of reach, given the taxes and stiff penalties for early withdrawal.  Thaler's research (1999) suggests that an individual's propensity to spend money from cash and savings accounts was high, while their desire to spend from retirement accounts was near zero.  Although 401(k) loans are more common today than they were twenty years ago, retirement accounts are still the least liquid and "out of reach" funds for most clients. Therefore, most commonly, retirement accounts should be invested more aggressively than other, more short-term accounts.  The resulting investment volatility can be far higher than an individual might experience in their cash or savings accounts, but that does not mean the funds are invested poorly. Instead, it helps to underscore Shefrin and Thaler's work from 1988 and assigns a hierarchy to client capital and subsequent investment experience/expectations.

Being there for the behavioral aspects of investing

We (advisors and clients) grossly underestimate the behavioral aspects of investing.  Bias exists on everyone's part.  Understanding bias (such as mental accounting) can help both clients and advisors make healthy choices with lasting benefits.  I learned a lot today—and was able to work with several clients to make sure that what was learned, resulted in good decisions and positive outcomes for today and well into the future. 

Reference

Thaler, R. H. (1999). Mental accounting matters. Journal of Behavioral decision making12(3), 183-206.

Shefrin, H. M., & Thaler, R. H. (1988). The behavioral life‐cycle hypothesis. Economic Inquiry26(4), 609-643.

 

 
 

Related Articles

Spend Time on Saving Money
 
@blankerwahnsinn

@blankerwahnsinn

Your team at Human Investing is here to serve you. Though our physical workplace has changed for the short-term, our company’s missions remain as strong as ever: to faithfully serve the financial pursuit of all people.  

We are entering a financially burdensome time. Many individuals and businesses are projected to suffer financially. The impact will look different for everyone.  

If you are seeking ways to change your spending habits, something you will certainly need is time.  Said differently, cash outflow is unlikely to change unless we take the time to research, contemplate, and change current routines. 

Here is a list of ten ways you can help cushion financial burdens that have either occurred already or are expected in the future:  

  1. Check your credit card points.  

    When is the last time you used credit card points? If you are in a financial crunch, now might be a wise time to cash out your credit card points. Not all credit cards include cashback rewards, but examples of companies that offer cash back cards include Chase, CapitalOne, and Discover.  

    Regardless of the cashback options available to you now, take the time to review whether you utilize the benefits of your existing credit cards. While you are reviewing your credit cards, this site is a helpful tool to figure out which credit card fits best with your lifestyle and spending habits: Nerdwallet - Credit Card Comparison  

  2. Eat the food you buy for quarantine.  

    This sounds obvious. But for some households, this will be challenging since we have purchased an allotment of random items. Was the store sold out of spaghetti?  Did you instinctively grab the only noodles left? If so, make it a fun activity for your family to express some creativity or try new recipes in the kitchen.  

  3. Consider refinancing your mortgage.  

    Do you have a mortgage? Rates have come down considerably this year and refinancing your mortgage is worth a looking into. Refinancing your mortgage can lower your monthly mortgage payments, offering both short-term and long-term savings. If you are interested in learning more about refinancing your home, see our recent post by Will Kellar: “How to refinance your home.”

  4. Save the money you would be spending.  

    We all have had to cancel upcoming plans. In many cases, that means extra savings. Put aside those dollars and use the money as needed. 

  5. Create or monitor your emergency fund.

    We realize many people do not have an emergency reserve. Traditionally a family should have three-to-six months of expenses saved in an emergency fund (three months for dual-income families and six months for single-income families). We encourage individuals to create an emergency reserve regardless of the economic forecast, but it becomes especially important during turbulence.  If you do have an emergency fund and are experiencing financial hardship, now is an appropriate time to use it. 

  6. Shop and spend mindfully.  

    Personally, I love the 24-hour rule. It’s a practice of self-restraint. If you feel the urge to purchase something (new shoes, a different laundry basket, extra-spicy BBQ sauce), wait 24 hours before you make the purchase. The time-lapse often mitigates a compulsive purchase.  

    Due to the economic uncertainty of tomorrow, we must be willing to make drastic changes to our spending habits. We are all compromising our normal routine in some way, shape, or form. With that said, it’s important to be cognizant of how these changes are impacting our cash outflows.

  7. Consider selling unnecessary household items.  

    I predict that people will spend more time selling their unused or unwanted household items. Take some time to go through your storage or extra items. Craigslist, Facebook Market, Poshmark, and Nextdoor are all great resources for buying and selling things second-hand. One man’s trash is another one’s treasure. 

  8. Create a budget.  

    A budget can provide financial awareness and reassurance. Now is a great time to revisit your budget or create one if you have yet to do that. Here is a budget template to get you started - Budget Template There are also online budgeting tools available such as mint.comYNAB.com, or everydollar.com.

  9. Unsubscribe.  

    Out of sight, out of mind. Take this time to unsubscribe to unnecessary social media accounts that tempt you to splurge or spend extra money. To minimize your current expenses, it may also be worthwhile to unsubscribe from unused memberships like online streaming services or gyms.

  10. Create ‘no-spend days’.  

    Since many Americans are working from home, ‘no-spend days’ are a good family challenge. It’s important to vocalize the game to your family so everyone can participate and be mindful of not spending money.  

Please feel free to share with others and let our team know if you have other examples of financially savvy savings that we can add to this list. We are open to new ideas and challenges!   

 

 
 

Related Articles

Financial Advising Through a Crisis
 

After starting my career as a financial advisor in the mid-'90s, I learned pretty quickly how crucial wise counsel could be in times of crisis.  About this time 20 years ago, the "dot-com" bubble burst sending the Nasdaq Composite stock index down nearly 80%.  Around that same time, September 11, 2001, happened, which changed cockpits on planes and screening at airports forever.  In the days after September 11, we waited anxiously for the markets to re-open (which they finally did the following Monday.)  Finally, I rode shotgun with the rest of the world through the financial crisis, which took the markets down over 50%, with some industries getting hit much harder than others. 

What I learned during these times of crisis, is to take a levelheaded "barbell" approach to manage decisions for clients, my company, and my family.  So, what does a "barbell" approach look like?  On one end of the barbell, is your job, your checking and savings account.  On the other end of the barbell is life back to normal and managing long term accounts such as college savings and retirement.

Examples of Advice we are Sharing with Clients

As an example, we work for a family whose breadwinner is a surgeon.  They have six months of savings in their checking account, but virtually no income planned from work for the next six months.  So, what do we recommend?  For them, we will raise enough cash to get them through the year with all bills paid, and a lifestyle they are accustomed to living. They are going to delay making college savings payments with a plan to catch-up later. They are also going to delay making any non-critical purchases until the dust settles on the current pandemic.  We are not recommending making any changes to their accounts outside shoring up their short term cash reserves because their job and income have changed—as such, raising cash is a necessary step. 

In another example, I spoke with a client in underground construction.  His wife is in the medical profession.  He sees his income staying the same as there is a need for their work regardless of external circumstances. On the flip side, her salary is in question for the next six months.  So, what are they doing and what are we recommending? First, because they are nearing retirement, half of their portfolio has been in bonds and cash.  They have six months of cash-on-hand and another decade worth of safe investments.  Their short- and medium-term cash needs are taken care of, so now we are looking at the question of retirement. For now, doing retirement planning does not make sense, given we are unclear as to how long the current financial crisis will be at play.  What we do know is that we will have much better information six months or even a year from now, and at that point, planning for the long term will make sense once again.

Lessons learned from past crisis management

The best advice we can offer right now is to make sure you take a barbell approach to manage your financial affairs.  The only short term market-related decisions we are recommending are ones that take care of creating a buffer to supplement disruptions in cashflow and job-related income.  If you need to raise cash, think about how much you spend monthly, and cover yourself for a year.  If, on the other hand, your job is stable, and cash on hand is plentiful, do not touch your accounts, sit tight, be thankful for the position you are in right now. 

As new information comes out about COVID-19, we will be offering our advice and counsel through our blog here.  We have a great team of certified financial planners, CPAs, and other subject matter experts that are actively posting financial guidance and recommendations for Human Investing clients—of which we are happy to share with the public in these challenging times.    

 

 
 

Related Articles

Refinancing Your Mortgage: A How To Guide
 
@scottwebb

@scottwebb

Is it time to refinance your home? To make sure this is a prudent decision for your family we want to share some considerations and outline the process.  

What is a Mortgage Refinance?

A mortgage refinance replaces your current home loan mortgage with a new one. Homeowners will typically look to refinance when there has been a drop in interest rates.  That said, a drop in interest rates is just one of many reasons someone would refinance their home.

Why is refinancing your home worth your time and focus? Because a mortgage is often one of the biggest expenses in a lifetime, it’s an important expenditure to get right.  According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Americans spend almost 32% of their income just on housing compared to the 0.71% spent on all nonalcoholic beverages (i.e. coffee). With regards to personal finance, it can be easy to blame our financial situation on the little things like the cost of your morning coffee. Rather than worrying about the little things like a cup of coffee, overextending ourselves financially with housing costs can hurt cash flow and diminish financial flexibility. A mortgage refinance can help adjust how much is spent on housing to provide a net positive impact on households both short term and long term.

Make a Plan

Set clear financial goals regarding your mortgage refinance. Here are a few reasons why someone would consider refinancing their mortgage:

  1. Lower Your Monthly Payment – Refinancing your home can reduce your monthly mortgage payment, providing more financial flexibility for years to come. There can be many advantages to extra money each month retirement savings, college savings, using monthly savings to pay more to the principal each month.

  2. Reduce Your Loan Term – This may be an opportunity to shift from your 30-year mortgage to a 15-year mortgage. Reducing the term of your loan can be advantageous for those who would like to be debt-free sooner. A reduced mortgage term means you are likely to pay less interest over the term of the loan. Rates for 15-year mortgages are typically lower than those for 30-year mortgages.

  3. Tap into Your Equity – Do you need to consolidate debt or take out equity for home improvement? Refinancing can free up your home equity for these needs.

Do Your Homework

It is important to “Know Before You Owe.” - Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The CFPB was established to protect and educate consumers in response to the Financial Crisis of 2007-08.

 As you educate yourself, here are a few factors worth your consideration as you apply to refinance your mortgage:

  1. Determine How Much Home Equity You Have - Refinancing a home can be more advantageous depending on how much equity you have. Your equity is determined by your home’s value in excess of the remaining balance of your mortgage. To assess your home’s value, utilize an online valuation tool or ask your real estate agent since they may have better tools and knowledge of your neighborhood. Additionally, a refinance can be a great opportunity to get out from under the monthly cost of PMI; to do this 20% of home equity is needed.

  2. Know your Credit Score - Your credit score measures your creditworthiness to lenders. An ideal credit score is greater than 760, the higher the credit score the better rate you will qualify for. Similar to your initial home loan application, your credit score will be reviewed during the refinance process. Make sure that if you have previously frozen your credit that you unfreeze it by contacting all three credit bureaus, Experian, Trans Union, and Equifax. – To learn more about freezing your credit see our post on How to Prevent Identity Theft.

  3. Understand your Debt to Income Ratio - Lenders use the following ratios to measure your ability to manage the monthly payments.

    • Monthly housing payments should not exceed 28% of gross income.

    • Monthly overall debt payments should not exceed 36% of gross income.

  4. Shop Around - Shop around with multiple lenders to find the best refinance rates and request loan estimates for comparison. It helps to speak with several lenders on the same day as rates can/will change daily. Requesting a loan estimate will allow you to compare rates, total loan costs, and mortgage features. Be prepared to share the following documents with the lenders: Paystubs, W-2s last two years, Recent Bank Statements, List of debts and amounts, Current Mortgage Statement, Declaration page of homeowner’s insurance policy, Name and Phone of Insurance Agent, and Proof of other income. (Submit Loan applications, within a few weeks as not negatively impact your credit score.)

  5. Understand your Break-Even Point – Once you know what types of rates are available to you, use a mortgage calculator to assess your break-even point. When deciding to refinance, it is important to know the point at which the cost of refinancing will be covered by your monthly savings. This break-even point will help decide whether the refinance process is worth it based on how long you expect to stay in your home.

    Example: If your refinance costs you $3,000 and your saving $200/month over your new loan, it will take 1 year and 3 months to recoup your costs.

  6. Will Your Taxes Be Impacted - Mortgage interest can be deducted on a tax return to help reduce income taxes owed. Since refinancing a mortgage often results in lower interest, your tax deduction may also be lower. This can also move a taxpayer from itemizing their taxes to taking the Standard Deduction. Consult your CPA or tax professional to discuss how refinancing could impact your tax situation.

Move Forward (Duration: Can take up to 45 days)

  1. Decide on a Lender – Let your loan officer know of your intent to proceed with the mortgage application.

  2. Lock-in Rate – Let your lender know that you would like to lock in your new mortgage rate. Rates will be locked for a fixed period, typically 30, 45, or 60 days. This protects you from rates increasing while you are waiting for the loan approval, processing, underwriting and loan closing.

  3. Prepare for Appraisal (Duration: 2-3 weeks) – This can mean taking care of quick fixes, doing a deep clean and sprucing up the landscape. Spend your time and resources on things that NEED attention. Let the appraiser know if you have made any changes to the property.

  4. Underwriting (Duration: 3 Days) – The mortgage company will verify that all information is correct. During this period you may receive additional questions or requests.

  5. Review Closing Disclosure - At least three days before your closing you should receive a Closing Disclosure, which includes the details about your loan. Review and make sure this matches your loan estimate previously provided.

  6. Prepare for Closing Costs – Be prepared to bring the full “Cash to Close” amount with you to your closing.

  7. Sign and Close – This is the final step; go to the title and escrow office to sign all final loan documents for your refinance.

Conclusion

For many homeowners, a refinance can make sense at some point during their lifetime. When refinancing your mortgage it is important to set clear financial goals, do your homework and understand the process to help avoid pitfalls. We hope these considerations and outline can be a guide to you as you decipher whether a refinance is right for you. As always feel free to call or email at any time, let us know how Human Investing can help.

SOURCES:

https://www.consumerfinance.gov/know-before-you-owe/

https://www.myfico.com/loancenter/mortgage/step1/getthescores.aspx

https://www.bls.gov/cex/2018/standard/multiyr.pdf

https://www.zillow.com/mortgage-calculator/refinance-calculator/

 

 
 

Related Articles

My Personal Three C’s Of The Week: Controllables, Crisis, Charity
 

My older daughter Norah (2) speaks part English part “Daniel The Tiger”. Walking around our house she will randomly shout statements like, “ I don’t meow, have to meow” (we are obviously doing great as parents) or something easier on the ears like, “I love you just the way you are Daddy”.

The volatility we are seeing in the markets, as it relates to day to day swings, has not been seen since the late 1920s. Between the volatility, we are seeing in the markets and the effects of the Coronavirus socially and on local businesses, it seems like we are in for quite a ride. Today I found myself humming a timely Daniel The Tiger tune. Ultimately reminding myself to control the controllables and relax.

“Give a squeeze, nice and slow. Take a deep breath, let it go”

3 c's chart A.png

Whether you are working from home right now, finishing up at your place of work or are now forced into a home school teaching role, we all have a lot of thoughts going. Here’s how I’m processing mine:

Controllables:

This can apply to how we interact with others in the world however, I’m applying it to investing. As of the close today, the S&P is down 30% off its highs with individual companies we are all familiar with down much farther.

3c's chart.png

At our firm, we have strict rules and guidelines around rebalancing. After reading others’ research and conducting our own, rebalancing based on time (semi-annually, annually, etc.) and threshold (if a position becomes underweight or overweight compared to the rest of the portfolio) can greatly improve the risk/return characteristics of an investment strategy. It also incorporates a “buy low” “sell high” attitude and can feel like you are taking action in volatile markets while not succumbing to market timing.  Note that the use of an Investment Policy or a rebalancing policy is a must.

Lastly, rebalancing isn’t solely about buying low and selling high. Another key feature is managing your risk over long periods of time, especially if you are taking withdrawals. Michael Kitces has done multiple posts about this. The below chart tracked withdrawals over a 30 year period. You can see how during down markets the lack of rebalancing diminishes the portfolio.

Chart_WithWithoutRebal_ver3.jpg

Crisis:

A timely podcast from Patrick O’Shaunghnessy came out this week titled “Investing Through Crisis”. I wanted to be careful before using the word “crisis” in this post, but the definition seems to fit the times. The paper, written by the Dan Rasmussen the interviewee of Verdad Capital, was published in the Winter of 2019 and looks back on past periods of crisis and if there were any silver linings that could be taken from it. Here are some bullet points that I think we can help us today:

  • There is the expansion of the breadth of rational beliefs during times like this: Rasmussen goes on to point out that there is massive uncertainty around the worst-case scenarios and best scenarios and often the world can’t disprove either. This is a key metric in volatile markets.

  • Bear markets have more predictable movements than Bull markets: Human behavior (fear, worry, etc.) drive bear markets. What’s worked (the rationale behind a bull market) will vary case by case.

  • Market timing requires three unknown data points: Being correct on all three of the below data points is highly unlikely. 

    • You must decide what’s going to happen in the future

    • You must decide when to get out

    • You must decide when to get in

Charity:

I read this post that inspired me to take a step back and be grateful for what I have as opposed to what is uncertain. In Portland there are/will be many groups specifically impacted by the Coronavirus. After talking with a few local leaders, they substantiated that donating to these causes can have a profound impact:

-          Oregon Community Foundation

-          Oregon Food Bank

-          Meals on Wheels

-          American Red Cross

 

 
 

Related Articles

We All Have Choices To Make
 
@soymeraki

@soymeraki

I was asked this week, "How do you make sense of how or why the market is responding the way it is?"

When something such as COVID-19 disrupts trade and travel there is less economic activity.

When there is less economic activity there are less future earnings.

When there are less future earnings there are lower stock prices.

When there are lower stock prices an investor’s account values decrease.

When an investor’s account values decrease, investors have a choice to make.

The choice to buy, sell or hold can be an incredibly difficult one to make. This is especially true when:

  • There are more zeros at the end of one's account balance.

  • An investor with a short time horizon and a need to access funds from their accounts.

  • Someone worked hard to build their account balance up to $10k and now it is worth $7.4k.

The type of investor we are is determined by the decisions that we make, especially considering our current market situation. As the esteemed American Neurologist and financial author William Bernstein puts it there are three groups of investors:

Group 1: The average small investor, who does not have a coherent asset-allocation strategy and who owns a chaotic mix of mutual funds and/or individual securities, often recommended to him or her by a broker or advisor. He or she tends to buy near bull market peaks and sell near bear market troughs.

Group 2: The more sophisticated investor, who does have a reasonable-seeming asset-allocation strategy and who will buy when prices fall a bit (“buying the dips”), but who falls victim to the aircraft simulator/actual crash paradigm, loses his or her nerve, and bails when real trouble roils the markets. You may not think you belong in this group, but unless you’ve tested yourself and passed during the 2008–2009 bear market, you really can’t tell.

Group 3: Those who do have a coherent strategy and can stick to it. Three things separate this group from Group 2: first, a realistic appraisal of their true, under-fire risk tolerance; second, an allocation to risky assets low enough, or a savings rate high enough, to allow them to financially and emotionally weather a severe downturn; and third, an appreciation of market history, particularly the carnage inflicted by the 1929–1932 bear market. In other words, this elite group possesses not only patience, cash, and courage, but also the historical knowledge informing them that at several points in their investing career, all three will prove necessary. Finally, they have the foresight to plan for those eventualities.

For most who fall into Group 1 & 2, it is not the intention that prevents someone from landing in Group 3 but rather a lack of planning and/or perspective. Having perspective can make it easier to make wise decisions, especially in the midst of chaos. I don't wish to diminish what we are experiencing with "don’t worry its all going to be ok." However, as we think about COVID-19 in historical context it's hard not to witness the ongoing resiliency of mankind and our economical system. See below for how the markets have weathered the last several years (1/1/08 - 12/31/19).

Source: First Trust Advisors L.P.

Source: First Trust Advisors L.P.

There is more to be said about resiliency when we scale back to 1900. (see below)

Source: FactSet, NBER, Robert Shiller, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Source: FactSet, NBER, Robert Shiller, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

The reality is that whether your retirement timeline is near or far, most of us will be impacted in one way or another by COVID-19 and COVID-19’s impact on our global economy. We all have choices to make. If you are making decisions to protect your health look to CDC for guidance. If you are making decisions with regards to your investments, gain some perspective and talk to your financial advisor. Let us know how we can help, contact us at Human Investing or call at 503.905.3100.

“Job one for the investor, then, is to learn as best she can, to ignore the day-to-day and year-to-year speculative return in order to earn the fundamental return.” – William Bernstein

SOURCES:

Rational Expectations: Asset Allocation for Investing Adults by William Bernstein.

 

 
 

Related Articles

The Last 72 Hours - What's Changed & What's Stayed The Same
 

On Monday I wrote this blog post sharing our firm's thoughts on the current state of market volatility. If you haven’t read the blog I’d highly encourage you to do so. Candidly, writing that feels like 3 months ago as opposed to 3 days ago.

What’s Changed:

  • WHO declares Coronavirus a pandemic

  • President Trump declares a travel ban in the EU

  • Many Sporting Events are canceled or postponed

  • For Oregonian’s, Governor Brown cancels events over 250 people

  • Universities and School Districts go online or close for periods of time

  • A well-known celebrity, Tom Hanks tests positive for Coronavirus

  • Lastly, the stock market has gone from being 18% off its highs on Monday to 26% off its highs as of the market close today (Thursday, March 12th). Along the way, it suffered it’s worst single-day loss since 1987.

High.jpg

When speaking with a co-worker Wednesday night it seemed like there was a social tipping point for many Americans regarding the potential seriousness of the virus. It felt closer. Add in what’s happening with the price of oil and interest rates and you get the fastest move from a market high to being in a “bear market”.

bear.jpg

What’s Stayed The Same:

A quote I’ve been thinking about this week is, “There’s an art to taking action and an art to justifying inaction”. Another piece of information that was shared today in our office was “In volatile times like this its necessary to be more disciplined not less discipline.” The same principles still apply to being a great investor today as they did a month ago. It’s simply harder to execute when chaos is occurring around us.

As hard as is it is, most likely inaction is the best course during times of increased volatility. It’s common for some of the best days of the market to be close in close proximity to some of the worst. Here’s what happens when you miss out on some of those days.

Missing.JPG

Going to cash and getting back in when it feels better is harder than it sounds. This quote from Josh Brown a CNBC pundit and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management provided this perspective from March of 2009 (the bottom of the financial crisis) and what it looked like to get back in:

The great answer is that you won’t know when the dust settles. There’s no airplane writing the “all clear” in the sky above your neighborhood. And when the dust settles, do you think stocks will be at their lows? Or will they have already rallied furiously, in anticipation of this? Let me give you an example. Imagine it’s March 9th. About eleven years ago, in 2009, the stock market stopped going down. There was no reason. The dust had settled, without fanfare or any sort of official announcement. If you had polled people that day, or week or even month, most would not have agreed that we had seen the worst. The economic headlines were not improving. But there it was. And by June 12th, about 3 months later, the stock market had climbed 40% from that March low. And even with that having happened, the majority of investors still weren’t clear that the dust had fully settled.“

Market.JPG

Do you what you need to do to make it through times of increased volatility in the market. I heard the term “social distancing yourself from your 401(k)” and it provided a much-needed laugh. Having discipline and staying the course on your plan is much easier when you have a plan. Whether it’s using your own tools or entrusting a fiduciary to partner with you, knowing that you did the planning work upfront makes all the difference in when 3 days feels like 3 months.

 

 
 

Related Articles

Market Volatility - The Cost of Admission
 
Buffett.jpg

I read two bite-size pieces of content last week that equally affected me:

“The whole reason stocks tend to do well over time is because they make you put up with stuff like this. It’s the cost of admission. A feature, not a bug” – Morgan Housel Collaborative Fund

“Telling people to ignore the noise is telling people not to be people” – Michael Batnick Ritholtz Wealth Management

As an advisor to families, endowments and corporate retirement plans our firm lives in the tension of these types of statements often. The ability to substantiate recommendations with facts, as opposed to noise, while recognizing each client that we work with has a unique set of circumstances hopefully validates our name Human Investing.

Our team (probably like you) is learning, reading and writing about the set of current events.  Like Housel and Batnick mention, it’s a combination of having perspective (in other words we’ve been here before) and recognizing that each time the market flirts with “correction” territory it’s a reasonable behavior to feel uncertainty.  We find the charts, statements, and questions listed below helpful when talking to clients and hope you do as well.

For most people, this is a price of admission scenario:

Today was the 17th worst day for the S&P 500.  Since 1825 the US Stock Market has returned nearly 10% per year. The below histogram does an excellent job of showing how those returns are plotted over the last 195 years. Like we mentioned above, investors do not receive excellent returns without taking on risk. Days like today are the price of admission.

histogram.png

“But this time it’s different”

You’re right this time it is different due to the speed of the market declining and the intersection of COVID-19, oil prices steeply declining and the federal reserve lowering interest rates. Not to be dismissive of the current world events, but it’s different every time. It was different during the dot com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis as well. These visuals help provide perspective regarding the current volatility we are seeing and what’s normal.

A.  Drawdowns in the market happen all the time. This current drawdown is around 18% (so far) which is slightly below the normal intra-year drawdown of nearly 14% since 1980.

percent off high.jpg
Vol is normal.jpg

B. These charts show that while the speed of this drawdown is occurring faster than normal. The fact that we are experiencing volatility linked to world events occurs more often than we might initially think.

quick down.jpg
world events.jpg

“Buying into this market seems terrifying should I go to cash (or stay in cash if applicable)?”

Two scenarios come to mind:

A.  You’re fully invested right now: Market timing is rarely (most likely never) a good idea. This is where knowing yourself as an investor and the qualitative side of the equation matters as much as the data. If slightly reducing how aggressive you are will allow you to sleep at night and not press the “sell all” button then consider strategies along those lines that lead to better long term outcomes. Otherwise, stay the course.

B. You’re in cash right now and waiting for an entry point: Consider this scenario. Over the last 20 years, the worst day to invest in the S&P 500 was April 7th, 2000. As the chart below shows $10k invested then is worth around $27k today. However, it took until December of 2013 (over 13 years!) for the $10k to be made whole on the initial investment and never look back. It’s a good case study for the recent worst-case scenario of investing in stocks and more specifically investing a lump sum of cash.

Capture.PNG

What’s tomorrow, this next week, this next month have in store for investors? Carl Richards said it best, “Are you concerned about days or decades?” Investing calls for a long term approach. Let’s take a page out of Warren Buffet’s book and get back at it tomorrow.

Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful
— Warren Buffett
 

 
 

Related Articles

Blowing up the Compensation Model
 

In our last post, we addressed the most significant anchor that is working against the financial planning industry, how it’s kept from adapting within changing market expectations, and that we need to move towards something better for clients. This anchor is the “Assets Under Management” business model that is the dominant form of revenue generation for financial advisory and wealth management firms. 

In this piece, we will highlight a related aspect of compensation but look at it from the planner/advisor perspective. In other words, our focus will be on compensation structures for planners and the role of incentives. To be sure, these two topics are interrelated and often confounded. These real and heavy anchors are keeping us from a state of optimal outcomes. Charlie Munger could not have been any more right when he said, “Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome.” Let’s take a look. 

An “Agency Problem”

Before we get into compensation models, it is imperative that we identify and define a concept called an agency problem. In its simplest form, an agency problem is one that contains a conflict of interest. It is a situation when someone (called an “agent”) is entrusted to act in the best interest of another party (called a “principal”) but has interests that are different (and often competing). 

Remember that term “fiduciary?” A fiduciary standard is imposed and regulated due to the inherent agency problem that exists between the client and the financial services professional (and/or industry). To review, the CFP Board defines fiduciary through the lens of the interaction between a financial planner and a client. Its fiduciary standard of care “requires that a financial advisor act solely in the client’s best interest when offering personalized financial advice.” 

Think about that for a second

Who else’s interest would they be serving when they offer advice? The very fact that a fiduciary standard is required reveals the problematic state of the industry. It is worth repeating…we can and simply must do better! However, the business models of financial planning firms and the compensation of financial advisors are anchors that necessitate considerable and seemingly insurmountable effort to move beyond the current climate. 

So how are advisors paid? 

In a commission and fee firm (often termed a “hybrid model”), advisors are often paid based on the commissions generated on the products sold. More directly, commissions are charged to buy and/or sell a mutual fund and when selling an insurance product such as a cash-value life insurance policy or an annuity. These commissions are called gross dealer concessions (GDCs) to the brokerage firm and the advisor receives a percentage of the GDC. The percentage that the advisor receives is most often determined by their relative tier based on the volume of sales dollars, meaning that the more products sold, the higher the percentage of GDC received.

In a fee-only firm, it is common for advisors to receive a salary as well as bonuses based on a percentage of their book. That means that the more assets they manage, the greater their additional compensation. More money can be made by bringing in new clients.

So what is the dominant incentive? It is quite clear that the incentive in the former is to sell investment and insurance products, and the incentive in the latter is to build and protect their book of business. But what about the amount and quality of financial advice? What about the degree of service and attention? What about providing an unbiased perspective? These are the conflicts that exist.

Citing these conflicts is not intended to suggest that a particular individual within any of the systems above is not providing high quality financial advice and excellent client service. It is meant to clearly call out the inherent conflict of interests that exists within these compensation models. 

Conflicts everywhere

And since Charlie Munger’s quote has been proven true for decades, we would be wise to pay attention. Truly, it is the case…find the incentive and you will likely find the outcome. So what outcomes are naturally linked to these incentives? At worst, if the incentives are large bonuses that are paid for selling products that generate a (very large!) commission, the interest of the advisor is to sell as many of these products as possible. 

Selling = more $$. The interest of the client is sound, comprehensive, and objective advice and purchasing only products that best meet their needs. If the incentive is bonuses that are paid based on the volume of assets managed, the interest of the advisor is to provide advice that results in more managed assets and allocate time on only activities that build and retain assets.

More assets managed = more $$. The interest of the client is sound, comprehensive, and objective advice and purchasing only products that best meet their needs. This is not about the character or the quality of the advisor. It is simply about incentives. Incentives lead to behaviors, and behaviors lead to outcomes. Or as Peter Drucker once said, “What gets measured gets managed, and what gets managed gets done.” 

The conflicts of interest in a fee and commission model have been highlighted and bantered about for a long time. In fact, the strong movement towards a fee-only business model has been fueled by the increasing visibility of these challenges. So we would like to devote most of our time to the primary fee-only advisor compensation model which is salary plus a bonus paid on the advisor’s book of business (amount of assets managed). 

Even a fee-only structure has its limitations

This might look harmless, but there are conflicts that remain. If a large portion of compensation is determined through a percentage of the assets you manage (“your book”), the incentive is to protect the book. This means employing a time allocation method that first considers the question, “Does this activity help me build and/or maintain my book of business?” Activities that result in a “yes” response to that question are prioritized while the incentive is to minimize or eliminate activities that result in a “no” response to that question. The big problem is that many of the important services that clients are looking for do not involve activities that yield bigger books. For example, conversations around topics like financial literacy education, budgeting, debt management, benefit planning, educational funding strategies, talking through goals and values, and charitable giving rarely lead to more assets under management. So conversations are primarily directed at wealth management, retirement funding, and risk management/insurance needs at the expense of ignoring or minimizing these other vital topics. Why? Because they do not align with the incentive.

Look for comprehensive planning vs. product-focused planning

Further, for some clients the best thing they could do is to pay down debt, invest through their company’s 401(k) plan, invest in real estate, and/or engage in charitable giving. However, none of these activities builds assets under management and all of them could potentially subtract from managed assets. Again, the incentive is aligned toward advisor behaviors/advice that is contrary to the best interests of the client. Anything that takes away from the percentage bonus for the advisor is incentivized to be avoided. This dynamic is what has predominantly contributed to the difference between product-focused financial planning and truly comprehensive financial planning that we discussed several months ago and is reflected again in the graphic at the end of this post.

Truly comprehensive financial planning is such a small portion of overall financial planning due to the inherent compensation incentives. 

Finally, the fee-only compensation model helps illuminate why many individuals and families do not have access to financial planning assistance. Simply and crudely put, they are not worth the time because they do not have enough assets for the planner/advisor to manage. This client may be willing and able to pay for services, but the current compensation method does not incentivize the advisor for spending time with this client. 

Compensation methods need to change. It is not only a matter of preference. Real outcomes are at stake. We can and simply must do better! 

puzzle-04.jpg

Check out the rest of the series with Ryan and Marc:

  1. Financial Planning: A New Mindset

  2. Bracing Ourselves For Rough Seas Ahead

  3. Isn’t Financial Planning a Dying Profession?

  4. What Financial Planning Should Look Like

  5. How Product Sales Is Ruining Financial Planning

  6. How Business Models Created the Culture of Financial Advisory Firms

Ryan Halley, Ph.D., CFP® is Director of Planning Practices and Research at Human Investing. He holds a doctorate in Personal Financial Planning from Texas Tech University and an MBA with a concentration in Finance from The Ohio State University. Ryan has his CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification. Dr. Halley is also a Professor of Finance and Financial Planning at George Fox University, where he directs a CFP® Registered Program located near Portland, Oregon. He has co-authored a book and has numerous peer-reviewed journal articles. Additionally, he has been an invited professor and lecturer at various universities in the United States, Canada and China. 

 

 
 

Related Articles

Addressing the Fear du Jour
 
@derstudi

@derstudi

The fear du jour is COVID-19, also known as the Coronavirus.  Each of us has a lot to be concerned about, particularly given the uncertainty of epidemics and even pandemics—couple this with volumes of misinformation and fear stoked by the media. Outbreaks of infectious diseases have consistently occurred over the past century; names like Spanish Flu, Asian Flu, Hong Kong Flu, SARS, Swine Flu, Ebola, Zika, and Dengue are just a few. Although unnerving and cause for concern, we are still here today functioning, producing, consuming, and living life. 

For the investment community, the concern is less about the loss of life and more about productivity, consumer spending, and growth. With consumer spending in the U.S. making up approximately 70% of GDP, the concerns of an economic slowdown are valid. Important for market participants is the material impact of the slowdown due to a lack of spending.  At the same time, furloughed workers and canceled events may harm a company’s ability to make money. Regardless of the situation, company earnings may potentially go down due to the widespread impact of COVID-19—and with it, their stock price often follows. 

YOUR FINANCIAL PLAN PREPARES YOU FOR THE UNEXPECTED

It is important to note that these are the current events; we are just reporting the news as we know it today. A financial plan, constructed by a Certified Financial Planning Professional or CFP®, considers the market impact of pandemics, wars, natural disasters, and the like. These situations, although not explicitly named in the financial planning calculations, are implied in the battery of historical market performance tests (called Monte Carlo Simulations). As such, those with a plan (investment, retirement, etc.) should stick to the plan. Now is not the time to go and make drastic changes. As one Human Investing client put it, “Now is when everyone needs a plan and partners they trust to achieve it.”

The worst days of the market may be ahead. Alternatively, the market could bounce tomorrow and be back on track for another stellar year. This is why during volatile times we look to the thoughtfully developed plans we created alongside our clients. In times such as these, we are grateful for each of our clients who have placed their trust in our firm over the last 15 years, and we look forward to connecting with you soon.

Sincerely,

Peter Fisher

 

 
 

Related Articles

How Business Models Created The Culture of Financial Advisory Firms
 
financial-planning-compensation.jpg

Why not just make the necessary changes to correct what’s broken? 

At this point in our blog series, you might be asking yourself the question, “If things are so bad with the current state of financial planning, why not just make the necessary changes to correct what’s broken?” That is a logical conclusion, but while the problems are obvious, the solutions are challenging (possibly a little like some of the political debate topics you will be hearing for the next few months!). 

There are two real challenges here

One that we have already mentioned: nothing big is wrong. It is a host of smaller pieces that are broken, and those small pieces accumulate into a perception of confusion and mistrust and suboptimal financial planning outcomes.

A second challenge is that the core problems are so deeply rooted in the culture and systems that make up the industry that even obvious needed changes are difficult to address. It is the proverbial turning of the Titanic, if you will. So, a better place to begin might be defining the culture through the lens of how we arrived at where we are currently and identifying some of the elements of the culture that make it so sticky and unwieldy. 

As forecasted last time, there are many weighty systemic issues woven into the culture of financial services that make this move to a better model extremely difficult. These are true anchors working against a migration to something better. In this piece, we are going to start at the top and take a look at the business model of most financial planning firms and set the stage for why things are as they are. 

How financial services make money

As we have discussed, the financial planning profession has its roots in investment services and the insurance industry. Firms make money largely be selling either investment products (stocks, bonds, mutual funds, real estate trusts, options, etc.) or insurance products (whole life, variable life, annuities, etc.). 

Each of these products are sold with a commission and the firm makes money with each product sold. It is quite possible that a firm gets paid $10,000, $15,000 or even $20,000 or more for selling one variable annuity product. So, as you can imagine, this system is full of agency problems or conflicts of interest and has brought about many pieces of regulation to try to control these built-in conflicts. Selling products often comes at the expense of offering services. 

It is for this reason that we ended our last post talking about “fiduciary.” Fiduciary is a legal requirement imposed to make sure that planners/advisors are acting in a way that is in the client’s best interest. And, as we asked last time, who else’s interest would they be serving when they offer advice?

The very fact that a fiduciary standard is required reveals the problematic state of the industry 

This problem and others have led to a slow migration to other business models. Improvement. The commission-only paradigm began to change into a business model that is comprised of both fees for service and commission on products. This has further extended into a model where revenue comes exclusively from fees, with no commissioned products being sold. In fact, the CFP Board recognizes three different categories of compensation for planners:

  • Commission only

  • Commission and fee

  • Fee only

In order to be considered a fee-only advisor (or firm), no commissioned products can be sold. The CFP Board has defined the term “fee only” in the following way: “A certificant may describe his or her practice as “fee-only” if, and only if, all of the certificant’s compensation from all of his or her client work comes exclusively from the clients in the form of fixed, flat, hourly, percentage or performance-based fees.” 

While the definition might seem to align with what you would expect of a fee-for-service relationship, the dominate model looks much different. Instead of being paid to produce a financial plan or paid on an hourly basis, the vast majority of financial planning firms generate most of their revenue through what is called an “assets under management” (AUM) model.

WHAT THE ASSETS-UNDER-MANAGEMENT model MISSES

There are planners who do hourly work or charge by the plan, but that is the extreme minority of revenue dollars produced. The assets under management model assigns a percentage fee to the client assets that are managed by the firm. The more assets managed, the more money made. It is typical for the amount charged to be on a sliding scale so that the percentage applied to assets goes down if you hit certain targets. For example, if a firm charges 1.25% of AUM for assets under $1 million and 1.00% of AUM for assets over $1 million, a client with $500,000 invested would pay $6,250 for the year. A similar fee structure would be used to calculate annual fees during each future year. If the client had $3,000,000 invested, that client would pay $30,000 annually. 

There is nothing inherently wrong with this model, but it does explain why most financial planning firms look like investment service firm silos, or what we have termed “product-focused financial planning.” Other services can be offered and truly comprehensive financial planning can be conducted, but it is most often done without direct compensation. In other words, you are not paid for it. This is the largest and heaviest anchor working against a change from a culture of product-focused financial planning to truly comprehensive financial planning. 

The incentives are stacked too heavily towards products and wealth management. In order to change the incentive, the entire business model would need to change. And as you can imagine, that is a big ask. The more hidden cost is one of being stuck—of knowing what would and could be better, but experiencing the seemingly impossible task of getting there. In life, the one thing more frustrating than not knowing or being able to figure something out is the ability to observe, understand and know what needs to happen but not being able to do anything about it.

Associated costs are a continued and mired state of public distrust, a ridiculous amount of regulation and required disclosure, an opaque world in which terms like “advisor” and “planner” are almost impossible to decipher, and ultimately failing to offer the community the entirety of what they need… truly comprehensive financial planning. 

Check out the rest of the series with Ryan and Marc:

  1. Financial Planning: A New Mindset

  2. Bracing Ourselves For Rough Seas Ahead

  3. Isn’t Financial Planning a Dying Profession?

  4. What Financial Planning Should Look Like

  5. How Product Sales Is Ruining Financial Planning

 

 

Want to talk about your financial plan?
Want to learn more?
Come talk to us or e-mail Jill at jill@humaninvesting.com.

Ryan Halley, Ph.D., CFP® is Director of Planning Practices and Research at Human Investing. He holds a doctorate in Personal Financial Planning from Texas Tech University and an MBA with a concentration in Finance from The Ohio State University. Ryan has his CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification. Dr. Halley is also a Professor of Finance and Financial Planning at George Fox University, where he directs a CFP® Registered Program located near Portland, Oregon. He has co-authored a book and has numerous peer-reviewed journal articles. Additionally, he has been an invited professor and lecturer at various universities in the United States, Canada and China. 

 

Related Articles