E-mail us your questions, comments, and if you have a blue polo too: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 6 show notes

Part 1: Why Are Bonds Acting Up?

• Goldfarb, Sam and Rubin, Richard. “Bonds Are Getting Hammered, and Wall Street Says the Rout Won’t End Anytime Soon” Wall Street Journal, 18 August 2026 [Article]

Part 2: Where Do Bonds Fit?

• Kellar, Will. “Managing Your Finances With The Three Bucket Approach” Human Investing Journal, 10 June 2025 [Article]

Part 3: Parking ‘Safe’ Dollars

• Gottfried, Miriam. “Wealth Management Has a $3 Trillion Problem: Investors Are Keeping Too Much Cash” Wall Street Journal, 12 August 2026 [Article]

• Damodaran, Aswath. “Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate and Gold.” Stern School of Business at New York University. 1 August 2026. [Database]

• Chilkoti, Avantika and Kruger, Daniel. “Some Investors Had Hunch Yields Were About to Fall” Wall Street Journall, 9 June 2019 [Article]

Part 4: Local Recs

• Portland Annual Swift Watch [Link]

• LPGA The Standard Classic [Link]

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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E-mail us your questions, comments, and hot dog stories: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 5 show notes

Part 1: The Economy vs. Stock Market

• Heard on the Streets Staff. “Markets Rally on Surprise U.S. Job Losses” Wall Street Journal, 7 August 2026 [Article]

• Mutikani, Lucia. “US suffers unexpected job losses in July, markets dial back rate hike expectations” Reuters, 7 August 2026 [Article]

• Michael Burry 2023 “Sell” [Link]

• Chart: S&P 500 % Change Over Previous 5-years

Part 2: $100 Hot Dogs & Investing Behavior

• Chandler, Adam. “The Rise of the $100 Hot Dog” Wall Street Journal, 8 August 2026 [Article]

• Lake, Sydney. “Costco CEO promises the $1.50 hot dog isn’t going away: The price will not change as long as I’m around” Fortune, 4 July 2026 [Article]

• Understanding ERISA Diversification [Link]

• “The Real Cost of Your Morning Coffee” Human Investing, 22 May 2015 [Article]

Part 3: Local Recs

• Hot Mama Salsa Tortilla Chips [Link]

• Farmer Johns Produce & Nursery, McMinnville OR [Link]

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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E-mail us your questions, comments, and investing sirens: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 4 show notes

Part 1: The Allure of the Gamble

• “'I couldn't breathe': South Korea's frenzied stock trading exposes margin loan risks.” Reuters, 19 July 2026 [Article]

• The Frame by Samsung [Link]

• Thaler, Richard. Johnson, Eric. “Gambling With the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice.” Research Gate, June 1990 [Article]

• Chart: What percentage gain is needed to make up for a loss?

Part 2: The Odyssey Sirens

Part 3: Rip City Update

• “Tom Dundon using a tired playbook.” Bald Faced Truth by John Canzano, 25 July 2026 [Article]

• “Trail Blazers, city of Portland finally meet, but distance to arena deal remains ‘significant’.” The Athletic, 30 July 2026 [Article]

• 4.14.2004: Kobe Bryant Nails the Winning 3 in Double OT [Video]

Part 4: Local Gems

• Call Ja Morant Hotline [Link]

• Suttle Lodge Boat House, Deschutes National Forest, Oregon [Link]

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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Corporate retirement plans (401(k), 403(b), 401(a), 457(b), etc.) made up a total of $12.2 Trillion as of March 31, 2025. It goes without saying that these types of accounts make up a significant portion of how Americans save for retirement. In this series we want to help equip and educate investors on how to successfully navigate selecting their investments, sticking to a game plan, and ultimately growing their account in the most efficient way possible.

What matters the most

Asset Allocation

Luckily, studies have been done and papers have been written about the number one determinant of portfolio success. As the pie chart below shows, allocating funds appropriately across asset classes is BY FAR the number one factor that determines portfolio success.

Put differently, ensuring that an investor selects a fund (or funds) that diversifies their investments will outperform the investor who spends time on trying to time the market or ensure that the security they selected is superior to other investments in the same peer group. This can be accomplished using a Target Date Fund, Target Risk Fund, Model Portfolio, or by creating a custom asset allocation.

Expense Ratio (or Fund Cost)

The next variable that we would say matters most is ensuring that the fund or funds you select has a low expense ratio. What’s low? In 2024, the average expense ratio for an index fund was 0.05%. In our opinion, if the index fund you select has an expense ratio of less than 0.15% we think you are checking the box on selecting a low-cost option.

What matters less

Historical Performance

Talking about historical performance is no easy task. The point here is that when you are on your retirement plan website and looking to learn about the investment options, the majority of the information is about the performance of the funds. And while that information might stand out the most, it’s actually not the most helpful. We think about fund performance track records in this framework:

1. Asset class performance is more important than actual fund performance. More specifically, owning the Large Cap asset class is more important than trying to select a specific large cap manager.

2. So much can go into why a specific fund performed well or did not perform well over the last 1 year, 3 year, 5 year, or 10 year performance period. Only looking at these variables has not been a good indicator of if a fund is going to perform well on a go forward basis. A majority of the top-half performing funds fall out of the top half after 5 years.

3. Our recommendation, if you are going to look at funds in a more in depth way look at variables like risk-adjusted return or the specific track record of the management team. Another option is to simply select a low-cost index fund. 

A visual guide on what to look for

We created this table to help provide a road map for selecting investments. This sample fund menu contains; investment options, historical performance, cost, and if the fund should be used on a stand-alone basis (provides ample asset allocation) or should be held alongside other investment options.

Want to talk about your company’s retirement plan?

Schedule time to meet with an advisor below or e-mail Andrew at andrew@humaninvesting.com.

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A week ago, I came across a chart that does a nice job representing the call volume we have been experiencing at Human Investing in 2020. While the amount of calls we receive does not equal the amount of times people search for CNBC, the two data points are certainly correlated.

The image is titled, “When Markets Fall, We Search”, and ultimately shows that individuals have been more likely to seek out CNBC (market related news) any time the market has fallen over the last 15 years.

I’d argue that you could replace ‘search’ with ‘speculate’ and both the phrase and the chart would remain true, “when markets fall, we speculate”. Given the state of current affairs and the upcoming presidential election, individuals are worrying about their retirement accounts. A growing number of conversations our team has with individuals inside of retirement plans sound something like this:

Caller: “I’m fearful of (X) candidate winning the election because I’m affiliated with (Y) political party (both sides are saying this). Additionally, there is uncertainty around COVID, and I don’t feel comfortable staying invested during these unpredictable times. I’d like you (Human Investing) to help provide me with a more conservative investment recommendation.”

Before I respond with market research, I want to reiterate that you aren’t alone with your concerns and fear. We hear you. At the same time, before making any decisions related to your portfolio, take the time to think through all the angles of your decision. The rest of this post will hopefully provide some anecdotes in your process. Here are few thoughts about what it looks like to plan for the end of 2020 and into 2021. Remember, it is better to plan than to speculate.

The correlation between your Politics and Your Portfolio

Generally speaking, there is low correlation between political parties and the stock market. However, that statement is easy to say and difficult to live out in practice. Tread lightly when reading articles that try to align which stock/sectors to own with the political party that takes office. This article from 2016 couldn’t have been more wrong prognosticating that energy companies (specifically Exxon Mobile) would be top performers for the proceeding four years. It goes without saying this was a massive miss.

The bigger influence: Are you a speculator or planner?

If you think like a speculator, you will make rash decisions around your investment accounts and have no plan for re-entering the market if you move your dollars to cash or to a conservative investment.  

If you think like a planner, you will use both quantitative and qualitative measurements to evaluate your decision. For example:

• If you have a long-term horizon (greater than 15-20 years), political changes should not impact your investment decisions.

• Irrespective of the political environment, review if your account is too aggressive or too conservative for your financial landscape.

• Have a clear understanding of both candidate’s tax policies. Changes to the federal tax code should be a factor in your financial planning for the remainder of 2020 and into the future. If you are working with a CPA and/or Financial Advisor, make sure they are staying abreast with any impactful tax code changes.

  • Biden Tax Proposal

  • Trump Second Term Tax Ideas
    

Ditching The Market

Trying to time the market when negative news arises (or the anticipation of negative news) is a dangerous game to play. Luckily, we have a recent case study of how dangerous it can be. From January 1st to March 23rd, the stock market fell 30%. Since then, the market has recovered all losses and then some. If you were thinking like a spectator, it would have been easy to create a narrative around mid-March to pull your money out of the market and wait for greener pastures. If an investor did so, most likely that investor is still waiting for the market to dip and has missed out on the recent recovery as indicated by the second chart.

If you think like a planner when the market is more volatile, sometimes taking some form of action itches a behavioral scratch. Here are some ways to take action while not compromising your account:

• Raise your contribution in your retirement account to take advantage of a decreasing market (buying more shares at discounted prices).

• Open a small “fun money” account to track if your predictions are correct.

• If the market does significantly drop, look at converting pre-tax dollars to ROTH.

The concept of thinking like a speculator vs. thinking like a planner represents the cultural moment we are living in right now.

Speculating = headlines, fast moving social media, and the potential for instant gratification.

Planning = well thought out strategies that take time and often require no action.

As we head into this season of elections and COVID uncertainty, I hope this post provides some perspective on how to approach your portfolio. As always feel free to reach out to our team to talk through your thought process. We are happy to help!

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One of the interesting subplots in the finance industry during COVID-19 has been the rise of the day trader. Robinhood, an online brokerage and trading platform, acts as a proxy for many investors who are rapidly opening accounts at other brokerage firms including Charles Schwab, E*T, TD Ameritrade, Fidelity, etc.

Our firm works with thousands of employees via their company-sponsored retirement plans and has had many conversations end with a question/comment along the lines of, “What do you think of this Robinhood thing? Is it worth putting some money in there? Seems like (fill in the blank tech company) is making money! Should I buy some?”. So, I felt compelled to address the question(s) and provide some context around where a speculative trading account fits into a greater financial plan.

THE MAJOR PLAYERS

Source: Piper Sandler

E*TRADE: more users opened accounts in the month of March than any full year on record.

Charles Schwab: 1 million new accounts so far in 2020.

Robinhood: 3 million users opened accounts in Q1 2020. For perspective, there have been 13 million accounts opened at Robinhood since its founding in 2013.

The GROWING appeal OF DAY TRADING

The barrier of entry has never been lower to open an account and buy shares of publicly traded companies. Because many individuals are at home, trading is as cheap and accessible as ever, and some firms have incentive offerings (like a free share of stock when you open an account). Pair that with the stock market reaching its low point for the year on March 23rd and having one of its fastest recoveries ever (in other words the last 5 months have been a winning proposition for many investors), and you get to the point where we are today.

Today could be a euphoric place for an investor owning stocks since March. To me, euphoria looked like TMZ coming out with a trading subscription service… yikes. Stocks have only gone up, and popular tech companies have led the way. Kudos to those who might have doubled their money on a company like TESLA, but the last 5 months do not paint a realistic picture of what investing looks like over the long haul.

the emotional rollercoaster of Owning single stocks

When talking about owning a single company, I like this example. Owning a company like Amazon over the last 10 years seems like a no brainer (today). If you had invested $10,000 10 years ago, it is worth over $268,000 today. However, when you see that over the last 10 years, an investor would have had to hold through down periods of -25% over 5 times to get to where the stock is today. In other words, the stock was down 25% of its high over 5 times. Holding a company through those periods can be difficult, emotional, and in my opinion, is an objective way of capturing what owning a stock (even one that has performed as well as Amazon) is like.

Investing advice for smarter day trading

Whether you are someone who has already played around, are thinking of dipping your toe in the water, or your ego is already as big as ever because you’ve been a successful trader for the last 5 months, here is some advice on what it looks like to invest in your long-term plan vs. speculating.

Boundaries, Boundaries, Boundaries: If you are going to buy a stock on your own, don’t have it impact your overall investment strategy and long-term plans. What does that mean? Invest a dollar amount that you would feel comfortable taking a 100% loss on.

A positive outcome can mean… many things: Recently the Winklevoss twins (yes those Winklevoss twins) were quoted saying that Elon Musk is going to mine gold on asteroids orbiting the Earth, thus decreasing the value of gold and increasing the value of bitcoin (I promise this isn’t fake). One scenario is that their theory is wrong but in the next 5 years, owning bitcoin could be a profitable trade. In the same light, if you have owned a technology company or a fund that tracks technology companies since March, you have probably made money. Does this make you the next great market predictor? Most likely not. At Human Investing, we have a saying "process over results". So, in these situations, whether or not your account is checking up on your process is equally or more important.

Trading Journal: If you are seriously interested in the market and having a brokerage account, a trading journal is imperative. If you have a prediction, write it down, track it, and review your track record. It’s not a bad idea to do this for a few weeks to test the waters before you open an account.

Small Losses Can Lead to Long-Term Positive Outcomes: Here’s a hypothetical, stay with me. You read this post, you open an E*TRADE account, and deposit $200. You end up buying a few stocks and start following the market. You are following investing influencers on social media, listening to podcasts, and even watching CNBC in the morning. Then life happens. You get a little bored, lose track of your password, reset your password, and lose track again (this version of you doesn’t have LastPass 😊). Six months go by, and you see that your $200 is now $50. As a byproduct of this experience, you realize that you are better off opening up a ROTH IRA at Vanguard contributing $100 a month into an age-based target-date fund because you now care more about retiring comfortably. Your $150 loss on your account made you realize:

1. You are not interested in picking stocks and it isn’t easy.

2. You educated yourself about the market, the benefits of a ROTH IRA, and moved the needle on helping yourself retire.

Time will tell if this Robinhood movement is a fad or a long-term trend. Either way, if you have questions, want to grab coffee via zoom and talk markets, or talk longer-term planning, our team is here to be a resource.

Other Articles You Might Enjoy On This Subject

* Inside Story On Robinhood

* WSJ video on Robinhood

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My older daughter Norah (2) speaks part English part “Daniel The Tiger”. Walking around our house she will randomly shout statements like, “ I don’t meow, have to meow” (we are obviously doing great as parents) or something easier on the ears like, “I love you just the way you are Daddy”.

The volatility we are seeing in the markets, as it relates to day to day swings, has not been seen since the late 1920s. Between the volatility, we are seeing in the markets and the effects of the Coronavirus socially and on local businesses, it seems like we are in for quite a ride. Today I found myself humming a timely Daniel The Tiger tune. Ultimately reminding myself to control the controllables and relax.

“Give a squeeze, nice and slow. Take a deep breath, let it go”

Whether you are working from home right now, finishing up at your place of work or are now forced into a home school teaching role, we all have a lot of thoughts going. Here’s how I’m processing mine:

Controllables:

This can apply to how we interact with others in the world however, I’m applying it to investing. As of the close today, the S&P is down 30% off its highs with individual companies we are all familiar with down much farther.

At our firm, we have strict rules and guidelines around rebalancing. After reading others’ research and conducting our own, rebalancing based on time (semi-annually, annually, etc.) and threshold (if a position becomes underweight or overweight compared to the rest of the portfolio) can greatly improve the risk/return characteristics of an investment strategy. It also incorporates a “buy low” “sell high” attitude and can feel like you are taking action in volatile markets while not succumbing to market timing.  Note that the use of an Investment Policy or a rebalancing policy is a must.

Lastly, rebalancing isn’t solely about buying low and selling high. Another key feature is managing your risk over long periods of time, especially if you are taking withdrawals. Michael Kitces has done multiple posts about this. The below chart tracked withdrawals over a 30 year period. You can see how during down markets the lack of rebalancing diminishes the portfolio.

Crisis:

A timely podcast from Patrick O’Shaunghnessy came out this week titled “Investing Through Crisis”. I wanted to be careful before using the word “crisis” in this post, but the definition seems to fit the times. The paper, written by the Dan Rasmussen the interviewee of Verdad Capital, was published in the Winter of 2019 and looks back on past periods of crisis and if there were any silver linings that could be taken from it. Here are some bullet points that I think we can help us today:

• There is the expansion of the breadth of rational beliefs during times like this: Rasmussen goes on to point out that there is massive uncertainty around the worst-case scenarios and best scenarios and often the world can’t disprove either. This is a key metric in volatile markets.

• Bear markets have more predictable movements than Bull markets: Human behavior (fear, worry, etc.) drive bear markets. What’s worked (the rationale behind a bull market) will vary case by case.

• Market timing requires three unknown data points: Being correct on all three of the below data points is highly unlikely. 

  • You must decide what’s going to happen in the future

  • You must decide when to get out

  • You must decide when to get in

Charity:

I read this post that inspired me to take a step back and be grateful for what I have as opposed to what is uncertain. In Portland there are/will be many groups specifically impacted by the Coronavirus. After talking with a few local leaders, they substantiated that donating to these causes can have a profound impact:

-          Oregon Community Foundation

-          Oregon Food Bank

-          Meals on Wheels

-          American Red Cross

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On Monday I wrote this blog post sharing our firm's thoughts on the current state of market volatility. If you haven’t read the blog I’d highly encourage you to do so. Candidly, writing that feels like 3 months ago as opposed to 3 days ago.

What’s Changed:

• WHO declares Coronavirus a pandemic

• President Trump declares a travel ban in the EU

• Many Sporting Events are canceled or postponed

• For Oregonian’s, Governor Brown cancels events over 250 people

• Universities and School Districts go online or close for periods of time

• A well-known celebrity, Tom Hanks tests positive for Coronavirus

• Lastly, the stock market has gone from being 18% off its highs on Monday to 26% off its highs as of the market close today (Thursday, March 12th). Along the way, it suffered it’s worst single-day loss since 1987.

When speaking with a co-worker Wednesday night it seemed like there was a social tipping point for many Americans regarding the potential seriousness of the virus. It felt closer. Add in what’s happening with the price of oil and interest rates and you get the fastest move from a market high to being in a “bear market”.

What’s Stayed The Same:

A quote I’ve been thinking about this week is, “There’s an art to taking action and an art to justifying inaction”. Another piece of information that was shared today in our office was “In volatile times like this its necessary to be more disciplined not less discipline.” The same principles still apply to being a great investor today as they did a month ago. It’s simply harder to execute when chaos is occurring around us.

As hard as is it is, most likely inaction is the best course during times of increased volatility. It’s common for some of the best days of the market to be close in close proximity to some of the worst. Here’s what happens when you miss out on some of those days.

Going to cash and getting back in when it feels better is harder than it sounds. This quote from Josh Brown a CNBC pundit and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management provided this perspective from March of 2009 (the bottom of the financial crisis) and what it looked like to get back in:

“The great answer is that you won’t know when the dust settles. There’s no airplane writing the “all clear” in the sky above your neighborhood. And when the dust settles, do you think stocks will be at their lows? Or will they have already rallied furiously, in anticipation of this? Let me give you an example. Imagine it’s March 9th. About eleven years ago, in 2009, the stock market stopped going down. There was no reason. The dust had settled, without fanfare or any sort of official announcement. If you had polled people that day, or week or even month, most would not have agreed that we had seen the worst. The economic headlines were not improving. But there it was. And by June 12th, about 3 months later, the stock market had climbed 40% from that March low. And even with that having happened, the majority of investors still weren’t clear that the dust had fully settled.“

Do you what you need to do to make it through times of increased volatility in the market. I heard the term “social distancing yourself from your 401(k)” and it provided a much-needed laugh. Having discipline and staying the course on your plan is much easier when you have a plan. Whether it’s using your own tools or entrusting a fiduciary to partner with you, knowing that you did the planning work upfront makes all the difference in when 3 days feels like 3 months.

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I read two bite-size pieces of content last week that equally affected me:

“The whole reason stocks tend to do well over time is because they make you put up with stuff like this. It’s the cost of admission. A feature, not a bug” – Morgan Housel Collaborative Fund

“Telling people to ignore the noise is telling people not to be people” – Michael Batnick Ritholtz Wealth Management

As an advisor to families, endowments and corporate retirement plans our firm lives in the tension of these types of statements often. The ability to substantiate recommendations with facts, as opposed to noise, while recognizing each client that we work with has a unique set of circumstances hopefully validates our name Human Investing.

Our team (probably like you) is learning, reading and writing about the set of current events.  Like Housel and Batnick mention, it’s a combination of having perspective (in other words we’ve been here before) and recognizing that each time the market flirts with “correction” territory it’s a reasonable behavior to feel uncertainty.  We find the charts, statements, and questions listed below helpful when talking to clients and hope you do as well.

For most people, this is a price of admission scenario:

Today was the 17th worst day for the S&P 500.  Since 1825 the US Stock Market has returned nearly 10% per year. The below histogram does an excellent job of showing how those returns are plotted over the last 195 years. Like we mentioned above, investors do not receive excellent returns without taking on risk. Days like today are the price of admission.

“But this time it’s different”

You’re right this time it is different due to the speed of the market declining and the intersection of COVID-19, oil prices steeply declining and the federal reserve lowering interest rates. Not to be dismissive of the current world events, but it’s different every time. It was different during the dot com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis as well. These visuals help provide perspective regarding the current volatility we are seeing and what’s normal.

A.  Drawdowns in the market happen all the time. This current drawdown is around 18% (so far) which is slightly below the normal intra-year drawdown of nearly 14% since 1980.

B. These charts show that while the speed of this drawdown is occurring faster than normal. The fact that we are experiencing volatility linked to world events occurs more often than we might initially think.

“Buying into this market seems terrifying should I go to cash (or stay in cash if applicable)?”

Two scenarios come to mind:

A.  You’re fully invested right now: Market timing is rarely (most likely never) a good idea. This is where knowing yourself as an investor and the qualitative side of the equation matters as much as the data. If slightly reducing how aggressive you are will allow you to sleep at night and not press the “sell all” button then consider strategies along those lines that lead to better long term outcomes. Otherwise, stay the course.

B. You’re in cash right now and waiting for an entry point: Consider this scenario. Over the last 20 years, the worst day to invest in the S&P 500 was April 7th, 2000. As the chart below shows $10k invested then is worth around $27k today. However, it took until December of 2013 (over 13 years!) for the $10k to be made whole on the initial investment and never look back. It’s a good case study for the recent worst-case scenario of investing in stocks and more specifically investing a lump sum of cash.

What’s tomorrow, this next week, this next month have in store for investors? Carl Richards said it best, “Are you concerned about days or decades?” Investing calls for a long term approach. Let’s take a page out of Warren Buffet’s book and get back at it tomorrow.

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”

— Warren Buffett

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