E-mail us your questions, comments, and if you like our banter: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 10 show notes

Part 1: Midterm Elections

• Bonaparte, Kumar. “Political Climate, Optimism, and Investment Decisions” Science Direct, June 2017 [Article]

Data as of 10/19/2026

Sources: Large Cap Stock performance is the Ibbotson® SBBI® US Large-Cap Stocks (Total Return) for 1926 thru Sep1989, S&P 500 Total Return for Oct 1989 to Dec 2025. Ibbotson data courtesy of CFA Institute, S&P 500 TR data courtesy of Ycharts.
• Data is monthly Jan 1926 thru Dec 2025.
• Changes to Congress and President are assumed to occur 1/1 of each odd year (i.e 1937, 1939, etc.) Congressional and Presidential control data courtesy of house.gov records.

Source: BlackRock

Source: BNY Mellon

Part 2: Correlation v.s. Causation

Part 3: 2032 Social Security

Kellar, Will. “The Reality Behind Social Security: What the 2032 Deadline Really Means” Human Investing Journal, 22 October 2026 [Article]

Part 4: Local Recs

• Durant Vineyards, Dundee, Oregon [Link]

• Verboort Sausage & Kraut Festival, Verboort, Oregon [Link]

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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E-mail us your questions, comments, and if you like our banter: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 9 show notes

E-mail us your questions, comments, and if you like our banter: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 10 show notes

Part 1: Headline Reactions

• Herbert, Emily. “S&P 500 hits record high as AI stocks shrug off bond market slump” Financial Times, 6 October 2026 [Article]

• Wang, Isabel and Wiltermuth, Joy. “Rising yields are quietly crashing the stock market’s earlier winners of 2026” Market Watch, 8 October 2026 [Article]

• Fonda, Daren. “Here comes third-quarter earnings season. Booming profits could propel the S&P 500 to new heights” CNBC, 7 October 2026 [Article]

• Confino, Paolo. “Michael Burry's Bearish View. The Market Is In 'Denial' About The End Of The AI Trade.” Investor’s Business Daily, 6 October 2026 [Article]

• Detrick, Ryan [@RyanDetrick]. “When the S&P 500 is in the sweet spot going into Q4 (up YTD between 10% to 20%) the returns get even better. Higher 85% of the time in Q4 and up 5.3% on average.” X, 1 October, 2026 [Tweet]

• Morningstar Mind the Gap US 2026 [Report]

Part 2: Bonds in Retirement Plans

• Nelson, Andrew. “The Bond Market is Changing Retirement Math” Human Investing Journal, 6 October 2026 [Article]

Part 3: End of the Year Moves

Part 4: Local Recs

• Dos Mundos, Newberg, Oregon [Link]

• Mole Mole, Portland, Oregon [Link]

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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Today's bond market may represent the most important shift in retirement strategy in over a decade. To understand why, we need to start with where equities have been. Over the 15 years ending in September 2026, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) generated an annualized return of more than 15%. For investors approaching or already in retirement, those returns may have helped create a welcome problem: their portfolios are larger and potentially more equity-heavy than they once expected.

Note: The Benchmark here is the S&P 500. Data courtesy of YCharts.

The reason for an investor's portfolio being potentially over-exposed to equities based on their age could be for one of two reasons.

1. They intentionally selected to be more aggressive based on their comfort level with risk and economic conditions.

2. They initially invested their portfolio in a more balanced methodology and did not rebalance their portfolio as equity markets grew. Take a portfolio that was invested in 70% equities and 30% fixed income 15 years ago. That portfolio left without rebalancing is now 95% equities and 5% fixed income in 2026. 

That 15% annualized return from the S&P 500 came with real volatility and its share of drawdowns. For many investors, those moments made it easy to avoid rebalancing. Whether it was COVID 19, peak tariff volatility in 2025, or more recently a steep increase in the price of oil with the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, there were plenty of reasons to hold tight.

The point being risk feels very different after you’ve been rewarded for taking it on for more than a decade.

While stocks were soaring, bonds went through a different period

For much of the 2010’s interest rates were low by historical standards. Then during the pandemic Treasury yields fell to extraordinary lows. For someone building a retirement portfolio, this presented a challenge. Imagine your financial plan required roughly a 5% rate of return to be considered “successful”. If high-quality bonds were yielding 1-2%, investors needed to find growth from somewhere else. Stocks were a great source of growth over the last 15 years, but we can never count on markets to repeat themselves.

One lesson our team applied during these years, and one we regularly enforce with clients, is that every financial plan has an implicit return hurdle. The lower the expected return from the conservative portion of a portfolio, the more work the growth portion of the portfolio has to do. Today that equation looks different.

The Bond Market Has Changed Dramatically & It’s Changing Retirement Math

For investors looking to rebalance funds away from equities or cash and into bonds, it’s important to recognize that today’s starting point for the bond market is fundamentally different than it was for much of the past 15 years.  For a retiree, the important takeaway isn't why rates moved from below 1% to above 5%. It's what those higher yields mean for the role bonds can play in a retirement portfolio. Bonds can once again contribute meaningfully toward achieving your financial goals. And importantly, they can do so while playing the traditional roles we'd expect from fixed income: generating income, providing diversification and generally taking less risk than equities.

Data courtesy of YCharts.

How does this change the Math for retirees? Let’s assume that someone has completed their financial plan. After accounting for spending, social security, inflation, taxes, longevity, and other goals the plan indicates that their portfolio needs to earn between 5.25% and 5.5% over the long run for their plan to succeed. This leads to the key question:

“How much risk do I need to take to reasonably pursue the return this plan requires?”

In 2020, answering that question was difficult. With high-quality bonds offering very low yields, a portfolio targeting a moderate return generally needed to rely more heavily on equities for growth.

All numbers used in the above table are examples and should be used as educational material, not advice. (Nerd Wallet)

Today, higher starting bond yields allow us to potentially accomplish two things at once:

• Use a more conservative expected return assumption for equities rather than relying on the exceptional returns of the recent past.

• Increase the bond allocation while still maintaining an expected portfolio return consistent with the financial plan.

All numbers used in the above table are examples and should be used as educational material, not advice. (Nerd Wallet)

The point isn't that retirees no longer need stocks. It's that bonds can now contribute considerably more toward the portfolio's return objective, potentially reducing how much equity risk is required.

Today's Higher Yield Also Provides Something Bonds Didn't Have in 2020: A Cushion

As a reminder, when rates rise, existing bond prices fall, and when rates fall existing bond prices rise. That’s why 2022 was such a painful year for bond investors. But there's another part of the equation that sometimes gets overlooked: the income you're receiving from the bond.

In the chart below, Fidelity looks at the Bloomberg U.S. 7–10 Year Treasury Index and estimates the effect of a 100-basis-point (or 1-percentage-point) move in yields. August 2020 shows that if at that time rates went up 1% the index would fall 7.2% and if rates decreased 1% it would return a positive 8.2%.

Compare that to today where the starting yield is 5% where if rates increase 1% the index would decrease 1.9% vs. if rates decrease by 1% the index would increase 11.9%.

This scenario occurs when the investor is starting with considerably more yield. Higher yields don't eliminate interest-rate risk. But they change the starting point. When yields were near zero, there was very little income available to offset falling bond prices. With yields around 5%, investors begin with considerably more income working in their favor. If rates decline, bond investors may benefit from both the income they are receiving and price appreciation.

This is by no means a prediction of where interest rates are heading. The key point is that the starting economics of owning bonds are considerably different today then is was at any point over the last 15 years.

So, What Now?

A few closing thoughts for investors considering what this changing environment means for their portfolio.

This post is not a call to get out of stocks. My hope is that this post allows investors to review their portfolio and take inventory of their allocation. Reducing risk because you think the stock market is about to fall is market timing. Reducing risk because your financial plan no longer requires you to take as much risk is financial planning. This post is asking you to consider the latter.

For individuals nearing or already in retirement, the consequences of investment risk are also different than they were earlier in life. For someone who is 35 and accumulating assets, volatility can actually be useful. They're continuing to buy investments and have decades before they'll need the money. The equation changes as retirement approaches. A significant market decline during the first few years of retirement can be particularly damaging because an investor may simultaneously be experiencing investment losses and withdrawing money from the portfolio to fund their lifestyle. That's when the amount of risk you take and the risk you actually need to take, becomes increasingly important.

Don’t start with your investment allocation; start with your plan. We have an amazing team of CFP’s at Human Investing who remind me of this frequently.

Instead of starting with questions like:

"Should I own 60% stocks?"

"Should I move from 70/30 to 60/40?"

"Are bonds attractive?"

"Is the stock market overvalued?"

Start with one step earlier: What does my money need to accomplish, and what rate of return does my financial plan require to get me there?

Once you understand that number, many of the other questions become easier to answer.

The goal of retirement investing isn't to earn the highest return possible. It's to earn the return necessary to accomplish your goals while taking an appropriate amount of risk along the way.

After 15 years of strong equity returns and a dramatic change in the bond market, this may be an especially good time for pre-retirees and retirees to revisit that calculation.

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Disclosure: Human Investing is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, including potential loss of principal. Readers should consult with a qualified professional regarding their specific financial situation.

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Episode 8 show notes

Part 1: Collectibles as an Asset Class

• Post, J.J. “Joe Montana Super Bowl XXIV jersey fetches record price” ESPN, 13 August 2026 [Article]

• Holder, Larry. “What’s working in the sports collectibles world: Industry leaders share what they’re seeing” The Athletic, 6 August 2026 [Article]

• Burrows, Benjamin. “CardVault by Tom Brady adds investors including Aaron Judge, Jay-Z, Connor McDavid” The Athletic, 13 August 2026 [Article]

Part 2: Local Real Estate Updates

• U.S. Bank. U.S. Bank 2026 Wealth Report, 2026 [Report]

Part 3: Local Recs

• The Alley Cards and Collectibles, Lake Oswego, Oregon [Link]

• E.Z. Orchards, Salem, Oregon [Link]

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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E-mail us your questions, comments, and bad sports bet breaks: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 7 show notes

Part 1: Sports Betting Rush

• Song, Zijia and Amponsah, Michelle. “Gen Z Is Moving Money From Stocks to Sports Betting in Wealth Plans” Bloomberg, 12 August 2026 [Article]

• Bloomberg Originals. “Why Gen Z Is Gambling With Its Future” YouTube, uploaded by Bloomberg Originals, 10 July 2026 [Video]

• Northwestern Mutual. “Planning & Progress Study 2026” Northwestern Mutual, 2026 [Report]

Part 2: Becoming a 401(k) Millionaire

• Picchi, Aimee. “Sturdy stock market mints a record number of 401(k) millionaires” CBS News, 4 September 2026 [Article]

• Fuhrmans, Vanessa. “American Workers Are Staying Put” Wall Street Journal, 9 September 2026 [Article]

• Human Investing Retirement Contribution by Decade Calculator [Link]

• Becoming a 401(K) Millionaire by Peter Fisher [Link]

Part 3: Local Recs

• Swan Island Dahlias in Canby, OR [Link]

• Hood to Coast Relay [Link]

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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E-mail us your questions, comments, and if you have a blue polo too: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 6 show notes

Part 1: Why Are Bonds Acting Up?

• Goldfarb, Sam and Rubin, Richard. “Bonds Are Getting Hammered, and Wall Street Says the Rout Won’t End Anytime Soon” Wall Street Journal, 18 August 2026 [Article]

Part 2: Where Do Bonds Fit?

• Kellar, Will. “Managing Your Finances With The Three Bucket Approach” Human Investing Journal, 10 June 2025 [Article]

Part 3: Parking ‘Safe’ Dollars

• Gottfried, Miriam. “Wealth Management Has a $3 Trillion Problem: Investors Are Keeping Too Much Cash” Wall Street Journal, 12 August 2026 [Article]

• Damodaran, Aswath. “Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate and Gold.” Stern School of Business at New York University. 1 August 2026. [Database]

• Chilkoti, Avantika and Kruger, Daniel. “Some Investors Had Hunch Yields Were About to Fall” Wall Street Journall, 9 June 2019 [Article]

Part 4: Local Recs

• Portland Annual Swift Watch [Link]

• LPGA The Standard Classic [Link]

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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E-mail us your questions, comments, and hot dog stories: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 5 show notes

Part 1: The Economy vs. Stock Market

• Heard on the Streets Staff. “Markets Rally on Surprise U.S. Job Losses” Wall Street Journal, 7 August 2026 [Article]

• Mutikani, Lucia. “US suffers unexpected job losses in July, markets dial back rate hike expectations” Reuters, 7 August 2026 [Article]

• Michael Burry 2023 “Sell” [Link]

• Chart: S&P 500 % Change Over Previous 5-years

Part 2: $100 Hot Dogs & Investing Behavior

• Chandler, Adam. “The Rise of the $100 Hot Dog” Wall Street Journal, 8 August 2026 [Article]

• Lake, Sydney. “Costco CEO promises the $1.50 hot dog isn’t going away: The price will not change as long as I’m around” Fortune, 4 July 2026 [Article]

• Understanding ERISA Diversification [Link]

• “The Real Cost of Your Morning Coffee” Human Investing, 22 May 2015 [Article]

Part 3: Local Recs

• Hot Mama Salsa Tortilla Chips [Link]

• Farmer Johns Produce & Nursery, McMinnville OR [Link]

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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E-mail us your questions, comments, and investing sirens: higroundpodcast@gmail.com

Episode 4 show notes

Part 1: The Allure of the Gamble

• “'I couldn't breathe': South Korea's frenzied stock trading exposes margin loan risks.” Reuters, 19 July 2026 [Article]

• The Frame by Samsung [Link]

• Thaler, Richard. Johnson, Eric. “Gambling With the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice.” Research Gate, June 1990 [Article]

• Chart: What percentage gain is needed to make up for a loss?

Part 2: The Odyssey Sirens

Part 3: Rip City Update

• “Tom Dundon using a tired playbook.” Bald Faced Truth by John Canzano, 25 July 2026 [Article]

• “Trail Blazers, city of Portland finally meet, but distance to arena deal remains ‘significant’.” The Athletic, 30 July 2026 [Article]

• 4.14.2004: Kobe Bryant Nails the Winning 3 in Double OT [Video]

Part 4: Local Gems

• Call Ja Morant Hotline [Link]

• Suttle Lodge Boat House, Deschutes National Forest, Oregon [Link]

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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Disclosure:
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Rebalancing and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. Any references to historical performance, academic studies, or research are based on past data and should not be considered indicative of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future outcomes. Advisory services offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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Corporate retirement plans (401(k), 403(b), 401(a), 457(b), etc.) made up a total of $12.2 Trillion as of March 31, 2025. It goes without saying that these types of accounts make up a significant portion of how Americans save for retirement. In this series we want to help equip and educate investors on how to successfully navigate selecting their investments, sticking to a game plan, and ultimately growing their account in the most efficient way possible.

What matters the most

Asset Allocation

Luckily, studies have been done and papers have been written about the number one determinant of portfolio success. As the pie chart below shows, allocating funds appropriately across asset classes is BY FAR the number one factor that determines portfolio success.

Put differently, ensuring that an investor selects a fund (or funds) that diversifies their investments will outperform the investor who spends time on trying to time the market or ensure that the security they selected is superior to other investments in the same peer group. This can be accomplished using a Target Date Fund, Target Risk Fund, Model Portfolio, or by creating a custom asset allocation.

Expense Ratio (or Fund Cost)

The next variable that we would say matters most is ensuring that the fund or funds you select has a low expense ratio. What’s low? In 2024, the average expense ratio for an index fund was 0.05%. In our opinion, if the index fund you select has an expense ratio of less than 0.15% we think you are checking the box on selecting a low-cost option.

What matters less

Historical Performance

Talking about historical performance is no easy task. The point here is that when you are on your retirement plan website and looking to learn about the investment options, the majority of the information is about the performance of the funds. And while that information might stand out the most, it’s actually not the most helpful. We think about fund performance track records in this framework:

1. Asset class performance is more important than actual fund performance. More specifically, owning the Large Cap asset class is more important than trying to select a specific large cap manager.

2. So much can go into why a specific fund performed well or did not perform well over the last 1 year, 3 year, 5 year, or 10 year performance period. Only looking at these variables has not been a good indicator of if a fund is going to perform well on a go forward basis. A majority of the top-half performing funds fall out of the top half after 5 years.

3. Our recommendation, if you are going to look at funds in a more in depth way look at variables like risk-adjusted return or the specific track record of the management team. Another option is to simply select a low-cost index fund. 

A visual guide on what to look for

We created this table to help provide a road map for selecting investments. This sample fund menu contains; investment options, historical performance, cost, and if the fund should be used on a stand-alone basis (provides ample asset allocation) or should be held alongside other investment options.

Want to talk about your company’s retirement plan?

Schedule time to meet with an advisor below or e-mail Andrew at andrew@humaninvesting.com.

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