Posts in Retirement Strategy
The Psychology of Market Patience: Navigating Volatility With a Steady Hand
 
 
 

Volatile markets test more than portfolios—they test patience. It’s easy to feel unsettled when headlines scream, and market volatility ensues. But the most important thing you can do as an investor is also the simplest: don’t let emotions get the best of you. 

In my nearly 30 years of advising clients, I’ve seen over and over again: the clients who succeed are the ones who manage their emotions, not just their money. The smartest thing you can do right now is stay calm and stay the course. The plan is working—even when it doesn’t feel like it. My experience has been that history has a way of rewarding those who stay calm, stay invested, and stay focused on their well-crafted financial plan.

At Human Investing, we believe that behavior, not timing or speculation, is what separates long-term success from short-term regret. For clients who have been with us for over 20 years, you’ve seen firsthand how a steady, disciplined approach can weather storms and grow wealth through them. For those new to our firm, please know that trust is the foundation of everything we do. We don’t just manage portfolios, we help guide people through uncertainty with clarity, care, and confidence.

To better understand the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment approach, it is helpful to examine five common psychological biases that often lead investors to deviate from sound decision-making. Drawing on both empirical research and professional experience, this section explores how emotional responses can override strategic thinking—particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty and market volatility—and outlines methods used to help clients remain focused on long-term objectives.

1. Loss aversion: When pain is louder than logic 

Researchers Kahneman, Knetsch, and Thaler (1991) discuss the psychological factors that drive loss aversion. Loss aversion is not just an investing concept; it’s a fundamental part of human psychology. Research shows that losses are felt about twice as painful as equivalent gains are perceived as pleasurable. In the brain, a $100 loss doesn’t just “sting”—it screams. And when markets drop, that emotional volume can drown out logic, strategy, and even years of sound advice.

This isn’t just a theory. I've seen it firsthand for a few decades—watching clients grapple with fear during the dotcom bust, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 COVID crash, and more recent volatility. In each case, the market eventually recovered. But those who let fear dictate their choices often miss the recovery, lock in their losses, and derail their long-term plans.

Here’s what makes loss aversion so dangerous: it feels rational. When the market drops 20%, the brain doesn’t think, “This is temporary.” It thinks, “Get out before it gets worse.” That impulse can feel like wisdom. But in reality, it's a trap.

The dislocation occurs when investors stop viewing a dip as part of the journey and begin to see it as the destination. Their long-term goals fade from view. The carefully designed plan becomes irrelevant. All that matters is stopping the pain.

But that short-term relief often comes at a prohibitive cost. Investors who sell at the bottom lock in their losses and are frequently too emotionally exhausted—or too afraid—to re-enter the market in time for the rebound. And rebound it almost always does. History shows that the market has consistently rewarded those who stay invested through downturns, not those who try to time their exits and re-entries.

2. Herding: When “everyone’s doing it” feels safer than thinking 

There’s a reason why stampedes are dangerous—not everyone in the crowd is running toward opportunity. Some are running from fear. 

In investing, we refer to this behavior as herding—the instinct to follow the crowd, particularly during times of uncertainty. Scharfstein and Stein (1990) were among the earliest to formally investigate and publish on the concept of herd mentality. We are indeed social creatures, hardwired to look to others for cues when we’re unsure. But in the markets, that instinct can be costly.

When prices drop and headlines grow loud, it’s natural to wonder: “What does everyone else know that I don’t?” You see friends moving to cash, analysts shouting about doom, and articles predicting disaster. The pull to join the herd becomes magnetic. But the crowd is often most unified at the wrong time, buying high out of excitement or selling low out of fear.

Here’s the cognitive dislocation: when fear spreads, we confuse consensus with correctness. If enough people are panicking, their emotion starts to feel like evidence. But markets are not democratic. The loudest voices are not always the wisest, and just because many are moving in the same direction doesn’t mean it’s the right one.

3. Recency bias: When yesterday becomes forever 

Tversky and Kahneman (1974) laid the foundational research on recency bias. They determine that “…the impact of seeing a house burning on the subjective probability of such accidents is probably greater than reading about a fire in the local paper. Furthermore, recent occurrences are likely to be relatively more available than earlier occurrences (p. 1127).” 

Put differently, individuals often extrapolate recent market movements into the future, believing that a market decline will persist or that a rally will continue indefinitely. This cognitive distortion, known as recency bias, reflects the tendency to overweight recent experiences when forming expectations about future outcomes.

It’s a mental shortcut that makes sense on the surface. After all, if it’s been raining for three days, we naturally reach for an umbrella on day four. But in the markets, this shortcut becomes a trap.

The dislocation happens when investors confuse a recent event with a long-term trend. They think: “The market’s been down the last two months—maybe this time is different. Maybe it won’t recover.” Or: “Tech has been hot all year—maybe it always will be.” This kind of thinking leads to chasing what has already happened or fleeing from what is already priced in.

Here’s the problem: the market doesn’t move in straight lines. It zigs, zags, and surprises. The best days often follow the worst. Yet, when recency bias takes hold, investors tend to anchor on the latest data point and overlook the broader context.

I’ve witnessed this bias unfold in every major market event since 1996. This ‘cognitive dislocation’ was particularly acute during the downturn from 2000 to 2002, when markets declined by 10%, 10%, and then 20%. But those who were paralyzed by recency bias—those who assumed the storm would never end—missed the sunshine that followed.

4. Sentiment: When moods masquerade as markets

The market is often described as a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term (Graham, 2006). That’s another way of saying: in the short term, emotion can drive price more than value. And that emotion, called market sentiment, can be just as contagious and unpredictable as the weather.

Sentiment isn’t about fundamentals. It’s about how investors feel about the future. When people feel optimistic, they see opportunity in every dip. When they feel anxious, even the strongest companies look shaky. This is where the dislocation happens: investors begin to substitute their mood for actual analysis.

In times of high sentiment, people often buy more than they should, take on more risk than they realize, or ignore warning signs. During low sentiment, they often underinvest, sell too soon, or abandon long-term strategies altogether—not because the plan changed, but because their feelings did.

I’ve witnessed this in action many times since 1996, particularly in 2008, when panic dominated sentiment, and many investors fled the market near the bottom. The truth is, markets don’t care how we feel. But our feelings often shape how we interpret the market. That’s why at Human Investing, we spend as much time helping clients manage their emotions as we do managing their investments. We help you separate how you feel from what’s actually happening.

Your plan is designed to withstand emotional swings. It assumes there will be times when the market is overconfident, and times when it’s too afraid. That’s why we don’t react to moods. We respond to goals. Because when you confuse sentiment for truth, your portfolio becomes a mirror of your emotions. But when you trust your plan, your portfolio becomes a reflection of your purpose.

5. Emotional echo chambers: When biases team up to derail you

If loss aversion, herding, recency bias, and sentiment were minor on their own, we might be able to brush them off. But they don’t stay in their lanes. These biases often compound, amplifying each other until an investor is no longer thinking clearly. That’s what we call an emotional echo chamber—a space where your own fears are repeated and reinforced until they sound like facts.

Here’s how it plays out:

  • The market dips, triggering loss aversion—“I can’t afford to lose more.”

  • You see others selling, which activates herding—“Everyone’s getting out. Maybe I should, too.”

  • You assume the recent downturn is the new normal—recency bias—“It’s just going to get worse.”

  • Your confidence drops, and negative sentiment clouds your judgment—“I don’t feel safe, so maybe I’m not.” 

Suddenly, your investment decisions are no longer tied to your long-term goals—a chorus of emotional responses drives them, each one echoing the others. This is the moment investors often make their biggest mistakes: abandoning well-designed plans, selling at market lows, or shifting strategies midstream out of fear.

I’ve seen this cycle emerge during every major downturn. What I’ve learned is this: when fear gets loud, clarity gets quiet. Investors don’t just lose money in these moments—they lose confidence, perspective, and peace of mind.

At Human Investing, our job is to help you break out of that echo chamber. We’re here to re-center you when everything feels off-balance, to remind you of the purpose of your financial plan, and to bring you back to your long-term vision when the short-term noise becomes deafening.

We believe that staying invested is not just a financial decision, it’s an emotional discipline. That’s why we design portfolios that align with your comfort zone and why we lead with planning. Because a sound financial plan doesn’t just grow your wealth, it protects your thinking.

When emotional noise is high, we help you find quiet confidence. When biases clash in your head, we help you hear your goals again. And most importantly, when you start to feel like you’re the only one holding steady, we’re here to remind you—you’re not.

Empirical evidence

If the five behavioral prompts are not enough to encourage you to focus on your plan, a 40-year perspective on market ups and downs can provide an essential viewpoint. 

Please see Figure 1 at the end of this document. In it, you’ll see the average intra-year drop for the S&P 500 is approximately 14%, based on historical data going back several decades.

This means that in a typical year, the market will experience a peak-to-trough decline of around 14%—even in years that end up positive overall.

Here’s a quick breakdown:

From 1980 through 2023, the S&P 500 had: 

  • Positive returns in about 75% of those years

  • But it still experienced an average intra-year decline of ~14%

Why it matters:

Many investors panic during temporary drops, thinking something abnormal is happening. In reality, a 10–15% drop in a given year is a feature, not a flaw, of long-term investing. It’s part of the process, not a sign to change course.

References:

Graham, B. (2006). The intelligent investor: The definitive book on value investing (Rev. ed., J. Zweig, Commentary). Harper-Business. (Original work published 1949)

Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. L., & Thaler, R. H. (1991). Anomalies: The endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias. Journal of Economic perspectives, 5(1), 193-206.

Scharfstein, D. S., & Stein, J. C. (1990). Herd behavior and investment. The American economic review, 465-479.

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases: Biases in judgments reveal some heuristics of thinking under uncertainty. science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.


Disclosures: These market returns are based on past performance of an index for illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investing involves risk, including the loss of principal.  Index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of an actual investment. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The information provided in this communication is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Market conditions can change at any time, and there is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful.

Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in declining markets. Asset allocation and portfolio strategies do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

The opinions expressed in this communication reflect our best judgment at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Any references to specific securities, asset classes, or financial strategies are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations.

Human Investing is a SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement by the Comission. Please consult with your financial advisor to determine the appropriateness of any investment strategy based on your individual circumstances.

 
 

A BOOK FOR THE SAVER IN ALL OF US

Becoming a 401(k) Millionaire isn’t your typical retirement guide. With 30 years in finance, Dr. Peter Fisher shares personal insights and real stories to help you plan with confidence.

 

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Retirees, here’s how the Secure Act 2.0 can positively impact your RMDs and retirement plan
 

A newly passed bill known as Secure Act 2.0 will change how retirees withdraw from their retirement nest eggs. This fundamental change increases the age at which investors must take money from their retirement accounts, bringing about some impactful financial planning opportunities.

What is an RMD?

Once an investor reaches a specific age, they must withdraw a required minimum distribution (RMD) from their retirement account, such as an IRA or 401(k). The RMD amount is determined by the account holder's age and account balance at the end of the previous year. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) requires RMDs to ensure account holders pay taxes on their retirement savings. RMDs, therefore, can be taxed on both federal and state taxes.

After reaching their RMD age, account holders must begin taking withdrawals from retirement accounts by April 1. Each subsequent year, RMDs must be taken by December 31st of that same year. The IRS may levy a sizable penalty for failure to take the mandatory distribution.

Good news, RMDs will be delayed by a year

A notable update from Secure Act 2.0 is the delay of RMDs. RMDs will start at age 73 instead of 72 for those born in 1951-1959. For those born in 1960 or later, RMDs will be delayed even further to age 75.

For those who turn 72 in 2023, you will not need to start your RMDs this year. Your first RMD can either be taken by December 31, 2024 or delayed until April 1, 2025.

There is no impact on a retiree if they have already started taking their RMDs or need their IRA to cover their cost of living. For others, who only take RMDs because they are required to, this significant modification to the RMD age provides additional retirement planning opportunities.

Retirement Planning opportunities

There will be more time for growth.

The new RMD regulation will give retirees a simple yet powerful benefit, more time for compounding growth. As the billionaire investor Charlie Munger states, “The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.”

This benefit must be highlighted, especially after a year of market losses.

An 8% return on a million-dollar IRA is $80,000. Additional returns undisturbed by an unnecessary RMD can have a snowball effect, providing an exponential lifetime benefit.

A longer window before RMDs can allow for additional planning and time, the essential ingredients in building wealth.  

QCDs can still be maximized.

Amidst the RMD age adjustment, the age at which account holders can use their IRAs to make Qualified Charitable Contributions (QCDs) was untouched. Thus, preserving one of the most powerful tax-saving strategies available to charitably inclined retirees 70.5 and older.

A QCD is a tax-free transfer of funds from an individual's IRA directly to an IRS-recognized charity. This charitable distribution allows taxpayers to avoid paying taxes on the withdrawn funds.

Retiree “Gap Years” are extended.

"Gap Years" are the years that occur between a person's retirement and the beginning of their RMDs. These Gap Years are often the years with the lowest taxable incomes in a person's adult life. As a result, they frequently serve as ideal years for accelerating income that would otherwise be taxable in a subsequent, higher-income year. The Secure Act 2.0's changes will give additional time for Tax Bracket optimization strategies such as Roth Conversions and Capital Gain Realization to reduce an investor's lifetime tax bill.

You may be pushed into a higher tax bracket in your later years.

Like all financial planning strategies, there is no one-size fits. The unanticipated pitfall of postponing RMDs can lead to more significant withdrawals in subsequent years when RMDs do start. An unexpected boost in income from RMDs might push you into a much higher tax bracket, phase you out of a tax credit, or trigger a surtax. Taking the time to understand the applicable tax implications are crucial when building a tax-sensitive retirement income plan.

This is a great time to reevaluate your retirement plan

The retirement system has undergone numerous changes due to Secure Act 2.0's policy reforms, adding to the difficulty of retirement planning. Recognizing the planning opportunities and risks that relate to you and your financial plan is essential.

 

 
 

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Maximizing Your Monthly Cash Flow
 

People often talk about what they’d do if they had “extra” money. The reality is, though, that there’s not really such a thing as “extra” money. Extra means left over, or a surplus. For almost everyone, there’s somewhere that money should be going, whether it’s to pay down debt, add to a savings account, invest, or begin planning for retirement. Thus, it’s not actually extra, even if all your bills are covered.

Your job with whatever money comes your way is to make it work for you. You have to tell your money where to go or it will tell you where you can and can’t go—on vacation, for example.

The best way to ensure that all your money is going where it needs to is to make a monthly budget—and stick to it. You must think of your monthly budget as a dynamic document; it’s going to change and adjust to whatever life brings your way.

Review Your Inflows and Outflows

Money comes in, and money goes out. Often, it feels like it’s going out before you even have it in hand. Get better control over this feeling by creating a document that helps you see exactly what’s coming in and where it needs to go.

Create your budget.

Use a spreadsheet on a program such as Excel, Numbers, or Google Docs to help you draft an understanding of your monthly income and expenses. Don’t forget to account for any expenses you have that occur annually or semi-annually, such as car insurance.

Choose a document that you have easy access to and that feels comfortable for you to use. You can also make a note on your phone with all the bills that come out each month or pay period, and you can check them off as they come out of your bank account. That way, you always know what’s going to come out during the next couple of weeks so you don’t overspend.

Take an honest look at your spending.

Analyzing where we might be part of the problem isn’t always easy. However, the truth is that many people make enough money to live on, and they simply live outside their means, accruing debt at an exponential rate. Look carefully at where all your money is going, down to the last dollar.

How much do you spend on eating out for lunch? Are you buying new clothes every month? Do you have a handful of monthly subscriptions that you aren’t using or that you don’t need? You have to balance your spending with your financial goals. If you want to save more money, then maybe you can think about packing lunches from home or only buying clothes on sale. Or, you can cancel those unused accounts and automatically put that money toward your savings account.

Check out some of the programs available to help you budget, such as Mint, You Need a Budget (YNAB), or EveryDollar. Some programs are free or have a no-pay level, but others offer advanced budgeting and investing advice for a monthly or yearly fee. However, before you sign up for a service that costs money, determine if what it offers aligns with where you need help. You also need to determine if you’re committed to tracking your spending and sticking with a budget; otherwise, it will just be more money going out that you aren’t using. Start with free resources like Google Docs or Notes, and then move on to a paid service such as YNAB.

Grow your emergency account.

No one wants to live paycheck to paycheck. It’s stressful and frustrating, and you’re living to work instead of working to live. Growing your nest egg has to start somewhere, and once you see how good it feels to have a hefty chunk of savings that you can rely on (instead of a credit card) it will motivate you to keep going with responsible financial planning.

We advise all our clients to have three to six months of monthly expenses in an emergency savings account. This savings account will not only enable you to use cash for an emergency instead of an interest-racking credit card, but it will serve as a constant reminder of how hard you’ve worked to get to where you are. This emergency account should be able to cover rent, food, transportation, and a phone for at least six months. Once you have it built up, you can feel free from the vicious cycle of credit cards. Whenever you have to pull from your account, like if your car breaks down, pat yourself on the back for having cash on hand. Then, build it back up again before you begin saving for or investing in something else.

Consider becoming a credit union member.

If you’re overwhelmed by the idea of building and sticking to a budget on your own, community credit unions have trained financial coaches who help members build and stick to a budget. These financial coaches can help answer questions and give you feedback about your budget. We work closely with Rivermark Community Credit Union, and they have financial coaches at every branch who can work with members to create a budget, plan for their finances, or consolidate debt. Best of all, this service is included as a benefit of credit union membership!

Don’t be ashamed about needing to ask for guidance! People all over the world have struggled with debt since trading and currency made their way into human culture. We have to learn financial literacy and take responsibility for our spending—these things aren’t usually taught in school or during adolescence, so most adults have to figure it out themselves. Use your resources and choose to prioritize your future.

 

 
 

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5 Things You Can Actively Do To Get Ahead of a Recession
 
 
 

Are you fearful a recession might be around the corner?

There’s been a lot of chatter about the state of the economy and whether we’re in a recession, or if one’s already passed. Whatever the situation, we wanted to help put things into perspective and remind you of the things you can (and cannot) control if uncertainty is on the horizon.

The widespread definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of a decline in real GDP (Gross Domestic Product). However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." No matter which yardstick we use to measure a recession, here is what you need to know:

  • Recessions are a natural part of the business cycle. There have been 34 recessions since 1857, ranging from more than five years to the pandemic-driven contraction of 2020 that lasted two months.

  • Recessions do not necessarily coincide with a decrease in the stock markets.

  • No two recessions are alike in cause, length, or intensity.

  • Recessions are marked as a time of heavy uncertainty and an increase in job insecurity.

Planning for a recession is difficult.

Using the general definition, we won't know we are in a recession until six months after it starts. Rather than worrying about a recession (which is out of our control), investors should focus on things that they can control. When future economic uncertainties arise, here is a list of things that you can do to prepare yourself better:

1. Re-evaluate the size of your emergency fund.

The amount someone should keep on hand should correspond with their living expenses, income instability, stage of life, risk tolerance, etc. This amount is typically 3 to 12 months of living expenses. An unforeseen medical bill or a temporary lapse in employment can happen anytime. Arming yourself with a cash safety net is your first defense against debt or selling your investments during a market downturn. For more information, read our blog about understanding the role of cash in a financial plan.

2. Analyze your spending.

Watching how much you spend builds awareness of your current spending habits. Understanding essential vs. nonessential expenses will make it easier to navigate your budget if your income disappears. Bonus: a better understanding of your spending can help you spend less and thus help you save more.

3. Bolster your professional network and skills.

Prioritize efforts to develop strong long-term relationships with essential connections. You may also invest in yourself with job-related skills and by polishing your résumé to ensure you are prepared for an unanticipated lapse in your employment.

4. Assess your investment portfolio.

Recessions don't always coincide with a stock market selloff. However, ensuring your investments are aligned with your goals is essential. Before a downturn in the market is the best time to position your portfolio based on your risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals. If you are unsure of your investment strategy, get in touch with a financial advisor to ensure you have the formula for successful investing.

5. Review your insurance coverage.

Start with the basics. Review what you have vs. what you need.

  • What kind do you have? Is your protection tied to your job?

  • Do you have enough dollar-amount coverage?

  • Do you need to adjust, more or less?

Remember the things you can and cannot control. Take your time to examine what you want to prioritize. While we can't predict precisely when a recession will occur, we can plan, prepare, and adjust appropriately to survive any economic storm. If you want to talk with one of our advisors, please call Jill at 503-905-3100.


 

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Payback Periods: How long to Make your Money Back?
 

As I write this in May 2022, most major asset classes are down for the year. Stocks, bonds, foreign or domestic, it’s hard to find an investment producing positive returns right now. Since no investor likes to see the balance in their account drop, we have received an uptick in client inquiries about whether it’s worth staying invested. The short answer is yes; we still recommend staying invested. Markets have historically recovered, and grown to new highs. Panicking and selling your investments when they’ve gone down in price is unhelpful for achieving your long-term investment goals. Staying invested when the markets are roiling is easy to say, hard to do.

If you’re interested in a longer, more data driven response about why you should stay invested, keep reading. A lot of client’s concerns boil down to “How long is it going to take for me to make my money back?”. Let’s call this amount of time it takes to hit a new all-time high for a portfolio the “payback period”.

For the returns, I pulled the Ibbotson SBBI US Large-Cap Stocks for equity, and the Ibbotson SBBI US Intermediate-term (5-year) Government Bonds for fixed income. This data compiles the monthly returns from January 1926 to March 2022. I took a 100% equity portfolio (100/0) and added 10% bonds to compare different allocations (i.e. 60/40 is 60% equity 40% fixed income). I assumed monthly rebalancing.

Source: CFA Institute

As the graph shows, the more conservative your allocation, the shorter the time-frame necessary to make your money back. The most aggressive allocations (100/0 and 90/10) can take about 15 years to make your money back. A more balanced investor (40/60 to 80/20) would expect around 7 years as the worst case to make their money back.

I want to emphasize these numbers reflect the absolute worst scenarios over nearly a century of investing. We could always see a new worst case. Typical experiences are usually not as extreme. Even just looking at the 2nd longest time-frame to make your money back, and the longest payback is just over 6 years.

 
 

Source: CFA Institute

In most cases, you will make money in a relatively short amount of time if you remain invested. The final graph shows how long your investment horizon needs to be to have made money 95% of the time. As you can see, a majority of the time markets reward investors who stay invested for at least 9 months. That 5% of times where you haven’t made money in 9 months, we have seen some major draw-downs that took years to recover from. Make sure you have positioned yourself in a way where you are comfortable with all possible outcomes.

Source: CFA Institute

So, what do we do with this information? Some perspective for us all:

Understand the Time-frame you’re Investing For

If you’re not accessing funds for 15+ years, you shouldn’t worry about how long it takes to make the money back.

  • If you are investing in a retirement account, keep doing that.

  • If you move money monthly into a brokerage account, keep doing that.

If you are planning on accessing the funds in 10 years or less, consider incorporating bonds in your allocation to reduce risk, and shorten the time frame to recover a loss in value for your portfolio.

If you’re currently accessing your funds, have a financial plan to understand how you handle downturns in the markets and still achieve your financial goals

  • Strategies for this include having a certain amount of cash on hand to cover market downturns, adjusting your budget as needed, etc.

Stay Invested

When you see your account balance down, know that remaining invested is the best way to recover lost value. Most of the time, you won’t have to wait for years to see your balance recover.

Plan in a way that Helps you Sleep at Night

If you can’t handle the thought of waiting seven years to make your money back, a 70/30 allocation may not be right for you. Have a financial plan in place that accounts for the worst-case scenarios, so you know you’ll be able to ride out any volatility in the markets.

Understand History can Only Tell us so Much

The markets could always find a new worst-case scenario. Use history as a guide for setting expectations, not absolute certainty of what is to come.


 
 
 

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The 3 Questions to Ask to Build a Solid Retirement Income Plan
 

Saving for retirement can seem straightforward compared to the daunting task of converting your hard-earned savings into retirement income.

When building a retirement income plan knowing what questions to ask will potentially save you money, lower your overall tax bill, and provide you peace of mind. Here are three questions you should ask when building a retirement income plan, as well as some considerations:

Question 1: What sources are available to you?

There are many ways to fund retirement. Thus, no retirement plan looks the same. To begin to understand how you will fund retirement, give yourself a quick assessment. What sources are available to you and how much?

retirement-income-01 copy.jpg

What you should consider: Simplicity in retirement. This can be achieved by consolidating retirement accounts such as your employer-sponsored retirement plans into an IRA. See - Why an IRA makes more sense in retirement than your 401(k)

Question 2: When do you plan on receiving income from your different sources?

There are a lot of unique planning opportunities regarding when to start receiving your sources of income. Knowing when to access these different sources can provide efficiency, lower taxes paid, and increase your retirement income.

 The IRS and Social Security Administration have imposed rules that coincide with specific ages. Familiarizing yourself with these key rules and ages associated with accessing popular income sources can help you begin to answer the question of “When?”. Here are some key ages to consider when building a retirement income plan around these popular sources -

Tax-deferred accounts (401(k)/403(b)/IRAs):

  • Age 59.5 - you can’t access tax-deferred dollars without a 10% early withdrawal penalty before age 59.5. The IRS does highlight some exceptions to the 10% penalty for premature withdrawals.

  • Age 72 (or age 70.5 if you were born before 1951) – The IRS requires that an individual withdraws a minimum amount of their retirement plans (i.e. an IRA) each year starting in the year they reach age 72. This requirement is known as a required minimum distribution or an RMD. Account-holders that do not take their full RMD will be faced with a stiff excise tax equal to 50% of the RMD not withdrawn.

Social Security:

Most Americans can begin claiming Social Security retirement benefits as early as age 62, or as late as age 70. Once you stop working, it can be tempting to claim Social Security as soon as possible to subsidize your income. However, it’s often strategic to delay Social Security as long as possible. The longer you delay claiming your Social Security benefit the greater your guaranteed inflation-adjusted monthly benefit will grow (up to age 70). Factors that should be considered when creating a plan around Social Security are life expectancy, other sources of retirement income, and spousal benefits.

retirement-income-02 copy.jpg

What you should consider:

  • Which sources you will draw first?

  • Should you delay social security as long as possible?

  • How long each source will last?

Question 3: What are the tax implications of accessing your retirement income sources?

Not all income sources are taxed at the same rate. Take the time to understand your applicable taxes and build a tax-sensitive retirement income plan to prevent paying unnecessary amounts to the government.

retirement-income-03.jpg

What you should consider:

  • The tax implications of the aforementioned RMD’s. RMD’s can unknowingly force you to pay a higher than necessary tax bill once you are forced to take required withdrawals.

  • A tax bracket optimization strategy that provides savings on your overall retirement tax bill. This can be especially beneficial in the early years of retirement. Learn more about Tax Bracket Optimization here.

The misfortune of not having a retirement income strategy.

Heading into retirement without an income strategy is financially precarious. To illustrate the benefit of creating an effective plan, we are sharing a hypothetical example.  Meet Charlie and Frankie:

  • Charlie (age 61) and Frankie (age 60) live in Oregon and each plan to retire when they turn age 62.

  • Charlie has $1,000,000 in a 401k/traditional IRA.

  • Frankie has $250,000 in a 401k/traditional IRA.

  • They have $150,000 in joint accounts.

  • At age 67 Charlie and Frankie are eligible to receive $2,990/month and $2,376/month, respectively.

  • Their annual income goal during retirement is $90,000.

In the following charts, we compare the impact of an efficient retirement income strategy to one that is not. The only thing that is different in the two scenarios is the consideration of when to draw specific sources and the associated tax implications. Unfortunately, when managed inefficiently the couple is only able to maintain their target annual income for 26 years. Additionally, the inefficient strategy forces the couple to pay an additional $129,000 tax over 30 years when compared to a more efficient strategy.

 
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Assumptions: 4% investment rate of return on all accounts. No additional contributions are made to investment accounts. Taxes include both Federal and Oregon State income tax.

This is one of the most important financial decisions you can make.

Taking the time to thoroughly answer these questions can provide long-term value.

Engaging with a financial planning firm can be helpful if you are not fully confident in making a retirement income plan. Working with the right financial planning firm for your unique situation can be the difference between a carefree retirement and a stressful one. To learn more about how we think about serving clients through comprehensive financial planning, check out our services here.

 

 
 

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Retirement Income Planning: PERS Benefit Options
 

Are you retiring from PERS soon? Provided below is a concise breakdown of the most common benefit options and what they mean.

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Often it makes the most sense to receive a lesser monthly benefit while protecting your loved ones with a survivorship option. Comparatively, it is like paying insurance monthly to ensure there is income for your beneficiary if you should die prematurely.

There are many more factors to consider, but a written estimate and analysis in coordination with your financial plan will provide a platform for deciding the best option for you and your family.

 


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When it Comes to Market Volatility, Don't Rely on Your Emotions, Rely on Your Financial Plan
 
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Recently I received a note from a longtime Human Investing client. He was following up on a discussion we had back in March, where he, like others, was concerned about where the market was headed. Here is a mostly intact version of what he said:

I just wanted to thank you and acknowledge your sound advice eight months ago when everything was running off the edge. Since then, we are up more than $250K (17%) and above where we were then. The reality is that had I pulled out, I would not have gotten back in before missing most of the bounce back. Hindsight can be wonderful when you do not make the wrong decision!  My friend, who sold out in March, is still hanging onto the belief that we are headed down again. Who knows the future.

A Discussion Goes a Long Way

The purpose of this note is not to take a victory lap for the advice we dispensed. Instead, it highlights how a discussion can help put investing in perspective in a tense market moment. This client has 50% of their portfolio in safe investments, like high-credit quality bonds and cash. The remaining portion is in broadly diversified equities. Despite having enough cash and bonds on hand to live a decade without having to touch their equities, they had a concern. The discussion with this client revolved around whether they needed more than ten years of cash and bonds to live and focused less on market timing. In the end, it was the client who decided to hold tight, not me. I was the one who removed myself from the emotion of the situation and was there to ask the right questions. 

Throughout my career, my role in the client’s life has evolved. In the mid-90s, we were providing stock recommendations and picking money managers. Today, we rely on trading algorithms from Morningstar and low-cost index funds from Vanguard and Barclay’s. The quantitative work has shifted from money management to financial planning and tax planning/compliance. This work is done by my colleagues at Human Investing: Andrew Gladhill, CFA, Marc Kadomatsu, CFP, Amber Jones, CPA, and Luke Schultz, CPA. On the flip side of the quantitative work is qualitative research, which involves non-numerical data. Qualitative research comes from our interaction with clients and hearing about their feelings, emotions, and opinions. These qualitative insights are paramount to a successful retirement plan. Some might argue that emotion and opinion can derail the best of financial plans. This is at the heart of the above quote. Quantitatively, the client was in great shape, but their “in the moment emotions” almost derailed a great retirement plan. 

Dalbar Inc. provides performance information on the “average investor”. Figure 1 is a chart I have tracked for years. One of the many reasons why the “average investor” does so poorly versus the returns of various asset classes and stock/bond mixes is due to their emotions. Having someone to talk to about these thoughts and feelings can be helpful.  If the plan permits and valid concerns arise from the discussion, then changes can be made.  However, if the change is not rooted in probability and the financial plan, there is the potential that the decision being made can be harmful.

Figure 1

Investing over the long run

It is interesting to see the S&P 500, dating back to the year I started in the financial services profession. Figure 2 depicts much relevant information. Most notably is the long term upward trending line during my career. If we went back to the early 1900s, the chart would look similar—lots of ups and downs with a trend line that moves up over time. 

Figure 2

Sometimes, the drops in the market happen gradually—as do their recoveries (as was the case in 2000). Other times, market volatility stems from “counterparty risk,” which was the case in 2007 when the housing market and credit created uncertainty. In the most recent case, the severe volatility was brought upon by fear from a pandemic and an uncertain future. Regardless of the reason, volatility is a natural part of investing in the stock market. My observation is that volatility is permanent. Surprises (both up and down) are common. The financial plan, which is a quantitative document developed by credentialed experts, can be worth its weight in gold. It can act as a financial roadmap when you feel lost—and provide an advisor like me the data-points to dispense proper advice during anxious moments.

 

 
 

Consistency is Key When Fighting the Dad Bod and Growing Your Investments
 
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On September 1st, my beautiful wife and I welcomed our new son into the world. His arrival has brought our family much joy during this season. Like all newborns, he has also brought sleepless nights, an abundance of comfort food, and disruption to our schedules and disciplines. As a result, I am here to tell you from personal experience the “dad bod” is real (find out if you have a dad bod here).

As I begin the journey to get back in shape, exercise and clean eating seem more difficult than ever before. Had I maintained my regimented sleep, diet, and exercise schedule throughout the entire pregnancy, returning to my baseline wouldn’t be as challenging. In physics, we call this inertia. In finance, we call this the compounding effect.  

Like most things in life, there is a compounding effect on our actions. 

  • Consistency in showing up to work → proficiency at your job. 

  • Consistency in showing up in the lives of loved ones → richer relationships. 

  • Consistency with a sustainable diet and exercise plan → greater physical health. 

  • Consistency in following a prudent investment strategy → increased net worth. 

Consistency is integral to the compounding effect

The inverse is also true. Disruption is a detriment to the compounding effect, a truth for our fitness as well as our investment accounts. To quote Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet's partner at Berkshire Hathaway —“The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily”.

I would argue that someone’s consistency often has a greater impact than their effort and resources. Take the following example of two investors: 

  • Investor A - saves $2K/year from age 26-65.  

  • Investor B - saves $2K/year from age 19-26 and stops there.  

  • Both achieve a 10% annual return.*  

At age 65, who ends up with more money?  

  • Investor A: $883,185  

  • Investor B: $941,054 

By saving and investing $2,000 at the beginning of each year from age 26 to 65 (39 total years), Investor A can expect to have a final balance of $883,185. Investor B only saves for 8 years but starts to save earlier in life than Investor A. Investor B benefits by taking advantage of 46 years of compounding growth, finishing with a balance of $941,054.

What Investor B lacks in consistency of contributions, they make up for in consistency of not interrupting the compounding effect on their investment account. I know you are probably curious, what would happen if Investor B did not stop contributing at age 26? Investor B’s account balance would be $1,902,309. Once again consistency wins out.

Start now and stick with it

  • There are no shortcuts to saving for retirement and fighting the "dad bod". Starting can be difficult and sometimes painfully slow, however, the long-term results can be powerful. 

  • The easiest advice to give is “never get off track.” However, like your sleep schedule with a newborn, there are some things you cannot control. It is important to know how to reassess and get back to work.  

  • Building anything valuable and defensible takes time, effort, and energy. Build a plan today.  

If you want to compare notes on raising a newborn, see baby photos, or discuss the impact of consistency when building a prudent financial plan, please reach out. We are here for you.

*This is for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Investment results will vary.

 

 
 

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The Importance of Portfolio Rebalancing and Market Timing
 
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What a season it has been.  I hope and pray that each individual and family member receiving this note is healthy and safe.  My goal over the coming months is to increase the volume of written communication.  These notes will not replace our regular scheduled tax, planning, or portfolio updates.  Instead, they will supplement those conversations and provide a financial perspective that can be communicated efficiently in writing.  The purpose of this note is to discuss our position on market timing and portfolio rebalancing.

Portfolio Rebalancing

We believe that the financial plan is the seminal document for investors seeking to accomplish long term goals. Each financial plan is prescriptive in the amount of saving and portfolio return that is required to accomplish the goals outlined in the plan.  The asset allocation decision is an important one—given it considers risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals[1].

The goal of rebalancing is to minimize risk and recalibrate, rather than to maximize return.  The process of rebalancing takes the imbalance that is created by certain asset classes over time and recalibrates those asset classes.  It takes the asset allocation that was originally prescribed by the financial plan and reorients the portfolio to its intended mix of stocks, bonds, and cash.

For most portfolios, recalibration should occur a few times a year.  This is particularly true in retirement accounts, given there is no tax liability for creating gains.  In trust accounts as well as individual and joint accounts, there is a sensitivity to tax gains as a possible consequence of rebalancing.  Every effort is taken to minimize tax liability in those types of accounts.  However, it can be hazardous to let the concern over taxes negate the discipline of regularly rebalancing.  I can think of too many instances where a client avoided rebalancing their account out of concerns for taxes—only to have the market go down. The tax liability for rebalancing was ultimately dwarfed by the loss of principle due to the market decline.  In short, it is rarely advisable to let the tax tail wag the investment dog.

Market Timing

The most common question I receive is, “when should we sell out?”  My typical response is never.  If an investor has a financial plan, which accounts for planning-based return expectations and subsequent asset allocation, the portfolio should always be properly positioned for risk and return.  If the goal of “selling out” is to reduce risk, the action of selling implies the original allocation was incorrect. 

In the past, there have been a few occasions where dramatically reducing risk by selling equities and raising cash makes sense.  Or, to sell a portion of the stock investment and place the proceeds in bonds.  But those reasons have to do with new information about the client situation, which prompt a change in the asset allocation. As an example, years ago, we had a client let us know that their business was struggling, resulting in the potential that their retirement account would need to be tapped for an emergency.  Liquidating equities in their account was a response to a change of plans and circumstances—this is a plan modification and not market timing. 

There is ample research dating back to the 1980s which suggests timing the market[2] or being able to predict the direction of the market is challenging at best[3].  Therefore, we believe in rebalancing “to recapture the portfolio’s original risk-and-return characteristics”[4], and we rely on the financial plan as the authoritative document to prescribe the proper mix of stocks and bonds for each client we serve.


Sources

[1] Zilbering, Y., Jaconetti, C. M., & Kinniry Jr, F. M. (2015). Best practices for portfolio rebalancing. Valley Forge, Pa.: The Vanguard Group. Vanguard Research PO Box2600, 19482-2600.

[2] Brinson, G. P., Hood, L. R., & Beebower, G. L. (1986). Determinants of portfolio performance. Financial Analysts Journal42(4), 39-44.

[3] Butler, A. W., Grullon, G., & Weston, J. P. (2005). Can managers forecast aggregate market returns?. The Journal of Finance60(2), 963-986. 

[4] Zilbering, Y., Jaconetti, C. M., & Kinniry Jr, F. M. (2015). Best practices for portfolio rebalancing. Valley Forge, Pa.: The Vanguard Group. Vanguard Research PO Box2600, 19482-2600.


 

 
 

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Providing Sound Advice in a World of Robinhood Investing
 
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One of the interesting subplots in the finance industry during COVID-19 has been the rise of the day trader. Robinhood, an online brokerage and trading platform, acts as a proxy for many investors who are rapidly opening accounts at other brokerage firms including Charles Schwab, E*T, TD Ameritrade, Fidelity, etc.

Our firm works with thousands of employees via their company-sponsored retirement plans and has had many conversations end with a question/comment along the lines of, “What do you think of this Robinhood thing? Is it worth putting some money in there? Seems like (fill in the blank tech company) is making money! Should I buy some?”. So, I felt compelled to address the question(s) and provide some context around where a speculative trading account fits into a greater financial plan.

THE MAJOR PLAYERS

Source: Piper Sandler

Source: Piper Sandler

E*TRADE: more users opened accounts in the month of March than any full year on record.

Charles Schwab: 1 million new accounts so far in 2020.

Robinhood: 3 million users opened accounts in Q1 2020. For perspective, there have been 13 million accounts opened at Robinhood since its founding in 2013.

The GROWING appeal OF DAY TRADING

The barrier of entry has never been lower to open an account and buy shares of publicly traded companies. Because many individuals are at home, trading is as cheap and accessible as ever, and some firms have incentive offerings (like a free share of stock when you open an account). Pair that with the stock market reaching its low point for the year on March 23rd and having one of its fastest recoveries ever (in other words the last 5 months have been a winning proposition for many investors), and you get to the point where we are today.

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Today could be a euphoric place for an investor owning stocks since March. To me, euphoria looked like TMZ coming out with a trading subscription service… yikes. Stocks have only gone up, and popular tech companies have led the way. Kudos to those who might have doubled their money on a company like TESLA, but the last 5 months do not paint a realistic picture of what investing looks like over the long haul.

the emotional rollercoaster of Owning single stocks

When talking about owning a single company, I like this example. Owning a company like Amazon over the last 10 years seems like a no brainer (today). If you had invested $10,000 10 years ago, it is worth over $268,000 today. However, when you see that over the last 10 years, an investor would have had to hold through down periods of -25% over 5 times to get to where the stock is today. In other words, the stock was down 25% of its high over 5 times. Holding a company through those periods can be difficult, emotional, and in my opinion, is an objective way of capturing what owning a stock (even one that has performed as well as Amazon) is like.

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Investing advice for smarter day trading

Whether you are someone who has already played around, are thinking of dipping your toe in the water, or your ego is already as big as ever because you’ve been a successful trader for the last 5 months, here is some advice on what it looks like to invest in your long-term plan vs. speculating.

Boundaries, Boundaries, Boundaries: If you are going to buy a stock on your own, don’t have it impact your overall investment strategy and long-term plans. What does that mean? Invest a dollar amount that you would feel comfortable taking a 100% loss on.

A positive outcome can mean… many things: Recently the Winklevoss twins (yes those Winklevoss twins) were quoted saying that Elon Musk is going to mine gold on asteroids orbiting the Earth, thus decreasing the value of gold and increasing the value of bitcoin (I promise this isn’t fake). One scenario is that their theory is wrong but in the next 5 years, owning bitcoin could be a profitable trade. In the same light, if you have owned a technology company or a fund that tracks technology companies since March, you have probably made money. Does this make you the next great market predictor? Most likely not. At Human Investing, we have a saying "process over results". So, in these situations, whether or not your account is checking up on your process is equally or more important.

Trading Journal: If you are seriously interested in the market and having a brokerage account, a trading journal is imperative. If you have a prediction, write it down, track it, and review your track record. It’s not a bad idea to do this for a few weeks to test the waters before you open an account.

Small Losses Can Lead to Long-Term Positive Outcomes: Here’s a hypothetical, stay with me. You read this post, you open an E*TRADE account, and deposit $200. You end up buying a few stocks and start following the market. You are following investing influencers on social media, listening to podcasts, and even watching CNBC in the morning. Then life happens. You get a little bored, lose track of your password, reset your password, and lose track again (this version of you doesn’t have LastPass 😊). Six months go by, and you see that your $200 is now $50. As a byproduct of this experience, you realize that you are better off opening up a ROTH IRA at Vanguard contributing $100 a month into an age-based target-date fund because you now care more about retiring comfortably. Your $150 loss on your account made you realize:

  1. You are not interested in picking stocks and it isn’t easy.

  2. You educated yourself about the market, the benefits of a ROTH IRA, and moved the needle on helping yourself retire.

Time will tell if this Robinhood movement is a fad or a long-term trend. Either way, if you have questions, want to grab coffee via zoom and talk markets, or talk longer-term planning, our team is here to be a resource.

Other Articles You Might Enjoy On This Subject

* Inside Story On Robinhood

* WSJ video on Robinhood

 

 
 

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