Earnings season is coming

Nike’s stock price has been struggling, for several years now. You have to go back to the early 2000s to find a time when it took Nike longer to hit a new all time high. With that, many Nike employees are wondering what to do with their stock. Whether it is to diversify into another investment or to fund expenses like vacation, remodels, or tuition for their kids, the current price has made those decisions more difficult. A common question we hear is “Should I sell my NKE now or wait?”

NKE has recently experienced declines. From Jan 2025 to Apr 2026, NKE fell -41.60% while the S&P 500 has risen 22.57%. Nike had a great run of outperforming the S&P 500 for 10 out of 12 years prior to 2021 but has been on a losing streak since.

Is Nike poised to make a comeback? Predicting the future of any stock, or the market overall, is a difficult task. Nike is the industry leader in athletic apparel, particularly in footwear. If Nike can maintain their brand and industry leadership, they are poised to be successful. Achieving outperformance relative to the S&P 500 is not guaranteed.

Let’s look at a few different ways to approach valuing a stock to get a sense of if NKE appears over or undervalued.

🍰 Price / Earnings (P/E) ratio - how much are you paying for each dollar of earnings:

• Pros: Earnings are the profits of the company, and those profits are ultimately what is available for shareholders as dividends

• Cons: Easily manipulated or adjusted by many line items on the income statement, can vary greatly year to year

• Current P/E: 29.04

• 3 year median P/E: 29.78

• Implied Valuation based on $2.16 Earnings Per Share = $64.42

• Verdict: Based on this metric, NKE appears below its historical median valuation.

💰 Price / Sales (P/S) ratio – how much are you paying for each dollar of revenue:

• Pros: Less subject to manipulation or fluctuation

• Cons: Doesn’t consider efficiency (i.e. costs necessary to generate the revenues)

• Current P/S: 1.40

• 3 year median P/S: 2.40

• Implied Value based on $31.45 revenue per share = $75.51

• Verdict: Based on this metric, NKE appears below its historical median valuation.

🔄 Price / Free Cash Flow (P/FCF) ratio - How much are you paying for each dollar of operating cash:

• Pros: Shows cash actually available to investors for dividends or stock buybacks, ignores non-cash expenses (i.e. depreciation)

• Cons: Still subject to manipulation based on accounting practices, can vary greatly year to year

• Currentl P/FCF: 62.34

• 3 year median P/FCF: 28.52

• Implied value based on $2.20 free cash flow per share = $62.66

• Verdict: Based on this metric, NKE appears below its historical median valuation.

🥣 Average of all ratios:

• Take the average of the implied values for P/E, P/S, and P/FCF

• Implied Value = $67.53

• Verdict: Based on this metric, NKE appears below its historical median valuation.

🚀 Price / Earnings Growth (PEG) ratio = P/E ratio / Earning Growth – measure P/E in context of company’s growth rate

• PEG < 1 implies undervalued, PEG > 1 implies overvalued.

• Currently: 29.04 / -30.88 = -0.94

• Decrease in EPS results in negative value, and less than 1 means the earnings are shrinking faster than the P/E ratio; bad all around

• Forward 1 year: 2.53

• Verdict: NKE is poised to be successful.

Based on historical averages, NKE currently appears undervalued

That is typical for a stock that has been declining in earnings and price over time.You can also take different time periods for the median of these valuations, to see what Nike’s valuation has been like over a longer period of time.

Note: All data courtesy of YCharts as of:  5/7/2026

While Nike may appear undervalued on a 3-year basis, the difference is greater over 5-year and 10-year medians. If you’re thinking about selling, these valuations may give you some guideline thresholds to re-evaluate at.

Based on historical averages for NKE, the stock currently appears undervalued. The decline in NKE’s price in recent years is a big reason for that. Whether the decline will continue, or NKE will return to its historical valuation norms nobody knows. Looking at the basic fundamentals, NKE has some clear struggles. 2025 fiscal year saw declines from 2024, which is unusual and not a healthy sign. On the other end, the basics of continuing on as a business seem strong for NKE:  

• NKE has consistently sold its products above the cost of those goods.

• NKE can cover both its current and longer-term debt needs based on existing cash and future expected earnings.

• NKE has not missed a dividend in the past 10 years.

These metrics are by no means the only way to approach whether now is a good time to sell your NKE stock. Other factors to consider:

• The amount of time you think you will work at Nike.

• How much of your Net Worth is tied to NKE?

• When do your Stock Options expire (if applicable)?

• Your comfort level with the ups and downs over time.

• Do you have any major expenses coming up? i.e. house purchase, funding college, etc.

We’re here to help

Beyond these factors and metrics, it is important to integrate your Nike stock decisions within the context of a comprehensive financial plan. If you have questions or would like to discuss whether to hold or sell your NKE stock, please reach out to us at nike@humaninvesting.com.

---

Disclosure: This material is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized tax, legal, or investment advice. You should consult your own qualified tax, legal, and financial professionals before making any decisions based on this information. Tax laws and regulations, including those related to bonuses and supplemental income, are subject to change and may vary depending on individual circumstances. The examples provided are hypothetical and intended to illustrate general tax concepts; they should not be relied upon to determine your actual tax liability. Investing and financial planning involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Advisory services are offered through Human Investing, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

---

Related Articles

The Nike stock choice window is just around the corner. While this may seem like a straightforward decision, it’s an important time to consider all aspects of your financial plan to make an informed decision that will best suit your needs. Through reflection and thoughtful planning, we often collaborate with Nike clients to walk them through this choice which serves their life goals best.

As we have worked with individuals in various life stages, we have seen a variety of needs and preferences emerge. Different people are trying to meet a diverse set of needs for themselves and their families.

We’d like to share a few stories of people in different life stages in hopes that one (or more) will resonate with you. We believe that each person has a unique story, and needs advice tailored to their specific situation. We like to know our clients by building a trusted and genuine human connection so we can serve them as a fiduciary.  

The personas profiled below are not reflective of any particular client or person. They are generalities based on years of experience working with Nike employees.

Meet John, 31, Director at Nike:

John, 31-years-old, was recently promoted to a Director role at Nike. He has been with the company for about two years and proudly considers himself a “lifer” at Nike. He believes in Nike’s long-term potential as a company and is excited about the opportunity to participate in its future growth. John likes to branch out in his investing by purchasing cryptocurrency and considers himself a risk-taker. He has a high-risk tolerance, not just in investing, but also in his love of extreme mountain biking. He is now entering his first year of participating in the annual stock choice, and is enthusiastic to partake in the future success of a company he truly believes in.

John is married with no kids, currently has little expenses and saves most of his paycheck. He is in a strong position and mindset to take more risk with his stock choices.

Our recommendation: By choosing stock options over restricted stock units (RSUs), John has the opportunity to benefit from Nike’s long-term growth. This choice provides him an approach that aligns with both his financial philosophy and comfort as well as his commitment to Nike’s future.

Meet Rachel, 42, Senior Director at Nike:

Married with young children in public school, Rachel, 42 years old, is focused on financial stability and meeting her family’s ongoing expenses. She has been at Nike for four years and currently excels in her role as a Senior Director. She has enjoyed her time at the company but is currently considering roles elsewhere. Rachel’s uncertainty about long-term tenure influences how she approaches financial decisions—particularly those tied to equity compensation.

Rachel is a conservative investor who doesn’t want to put all her eggs in one basket. Rachel tends to avoid risk and prefers stability over speculation.

Our recommendation: RSUs are a reliable source of income for Rachel. Her risk-averse mindset and need for cash have led her to select RSUs as her Nike stock choice decision in the past and sell them upon vesting. Continuing to choose RSUs allows Rachel to obtain a steady cash flow and participate in Nike’s equity program in a way that supports her personal and professional needs best.

Meet Matt, 53, VP at Nike:

Matt, a 53-year-old Vice President at Nike, has been with the company for a decade and is approaching a key transition point in his career. With plans to retire within the next one to two years, he has been closely reviewing his overall financial plan to adequately prepare for the future. Matt is uncertain about Nike in the long-term and doesn’t want to rely on his stock awards to fund all his personal goals and dreams.

Matt is nearing eligibility age for a special retirement vesting treatment. If Matt remains with Nike at age 55 this rule would extend his window to hold onto his unvested stock options (grants held for at least one year) beyond the typical 90 days.

However, with college-age children and education expenses creeping up, he also has immediate cash needs to consider.

Our recommendation: While RSUs offer a more reliable payout, options could become a strategic tool if the stock grows before the options expire. Ultimately, Matt must strike a balance of these two stock choices that fits his needs. His decision will likely be a mix of both options and RSUs to support his family and the opportunity for long-term growth.

How the Stock Choice Can Serve You

As these examples illustrate, there's no single approach that works for everyone. These stories are here to serve as a starting point for discussion around your personalized plan.

The Nike stock choice window is more than just an annual selection. It’s an opportunity to reflect on your broader financial goals and personal values. Whether you're early in your career like John, balancing family needs like Rachel, or preparing for retirement like Matt, your decision should align with where you are now and where you want to go.

Each individual’s situation is unique, and should factor in timing, risk tolerance, behavioral, and quantitative analysis. We’re here to help you think through those variables with clarity and confidence.

If you have questions or want to dive into an analysis of your own situation, take our survey below.

TAKE OUR ANNUAL STOCK CHOICE SURVEY

Get a customized score to help you make your stock choice this year.

Learn more

---

Disclosures: The information provided in this communication is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Market conditions can change at any time, and there is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in declining markets. Asset allocation and portfolio strategies do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

Scenarios discussed are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only. They do not represent actual clients or outcomes and should not be interpreted as guarantees of future results.

The opinions expressed in this communication reflect our best judgment at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Any references to specific securities, asset classes, or financial strategies are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations.

Human Investing is a SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement by the Commission. Please consult with your financial advisor to determine the appropriateness of any investment strategy based on your individual circumstances.

---

Related Articles

On November 5th of 2021, Nike stock closed at its most recent all-time high of $177.51. Much has changed since that time, with the stock price dropping over 38% to $109.12 as of 7/22/22. This has made financial decisions much more challenging for Nike leaders that hold and receive significant amounts of Nike stock as part of their compensation and benefits. Many rely on their stock for their financial goals and life plans like retiring, paying for college, paying off debt, contributing to charitable causes, and purchasing a vacation home or a new car.

Uncertainty and concern

Those decisions are now met with uncertainty and concern over the significant decrease in their Nike shares compared to just seven months ago. So, the understandable questions are starting to arise:

“Should I sell some or all of my stock now?”

“Should I delay my financial goals and life plans?”

“Is there another way to fund those goals without selling my stock?”

“How long do you think it will take to recover?”

Each individual has a unique financial situation, and the right decision is not the same for everyone.

To help Nike clients through these discussions, we thought providing information and context to the question of how long it will take for the stock to recover would be helpful.

While we cannot predict the future, we can look to past situations to get a sense of general time frames, which can help the decision-making process.

How Long Will this Down Period Last?

In examining the last five times Nike stock dropped by at least 20% from its high, we noted the periods to recover to their all-time high.

The average time for recovery has been just under one year at 339 days. You will notice from the table above that the recovery time varies widely from as quick as two months to as long as 20 months. Another interesting observation is that over the past 15 years, there has been a 20%+ drop in Nike stock every 2-4 years.

This most recent -20% downturn in Nike happened on February 11, 2022, about five months ago. So how much longer will this down period continue? No one truly knows, but if we go off of the history of the past 15 years, you should be prepared for up to another 15 months.

So, what should Nike leaders consider and assess now? Below are some tips.

TIP #1: Assess and Understand your Time Frame

Having enough time to be patient and wait for a potential recovery is one of the keys to the current environment. Take time to assess if you can hold tight or if you have very specific timelines or deadlines like a Stock Option expiration.

TIP #2: Take Note of your Risk Appetite

Even if you have the time to wait for a potential recovery, it may not be worth it if it is causing an undue amount of stress and anxiety. In this case, we find that developing a well-thought-out selling plan, where you sell part of your stock at different prices and time periods, can relieve some of the concern.

TIP #3: Develop a Contingency Plan

If the stock takes longer to recover than expected, identify other places where you can access cash in the short-term to meet those financial goals.  Examples can include: using existing cash in the bank, the conservative part of a taxable investment account, a home equity line of credit, or a portfolio loan.

TIP #4: Pick the Most Optimal Shares for any Sales

When the time is right to sell, are you picking ESPP, RSUs, or Stock Options?  We recommend carefully selecting the right type and exact shares to minimize taxes, maintain your long-term upside, and fit your time frame.

By looking into the past, we can see that downturns and recoveries in Nike stock are pretty standard and have happened regularly. We recognize that this historical data doesn’t mean it will be the same this time, but it does give you a sense of what it could look like.

“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.”

-Mark Twain

If you need help assessing your current Nike stock and how it fits into your personal goals and situation, you can reach Marc at marc@humaninvesting.com.

---

---

Related Articles