The IRS adjusts tax brackets and rates each year to account for inflation and combat “bracket creep.” Bracket creep is when taxpayers are pushed into higher income tax brackets or do not receive adequate credits and deductions due to inflation. Are you aware of how an increase in the standard deduction and tax brackets will impact you?

What has changed?

1. The standard deduction will increase for the 2023 tax year. See below for a summary of the increases:

 2. Federal income tax brackets will increase to account for inflation in 2023:

What does this mean for you?

While this is welcomed news, these updates will not significantly impact your taxes, cash flow, or budget. These updates are enacted to hedge against inflation and keep things consistent for taxpayers.

In sum, the increase in standard deduction means households will have less income subject to taxes, and the income subject to taxes will be subject to better tax brackets.

We wanted to re-vamp our tax example from 2022 with the updated 2023 numbers to provide a familiar and helpful guide to your taxes. Read on to see a fictitious example of the impact of the increased standard deduction and tax brackets in 2023.

Meet Martin & Angela

Below is a breakdown of their taxable income and taxes due in 2022 compared to 2023.

As you can see, they reported $100,000 of combined income, which is reduced by their pre-tax 401(k) contributions and the standard deduction of $27,700. Because the standard deduction increased from $25,900 in 2022 to $27,700 in 2023, Martin and Angela’s taxable income decreased. This means they are on track to pay less this year in federal taxes.

PORTIONS OF YOUR INCOME GET TAXED AT DIFFERENT RATES

Tax brackets calculate the tax rate you will pay on each portion of your income. Tax brackets are part of our progressive tax system, which means the tax rate increases as someone’s income grows. There are seven federal tax brackets in 2023 (see image 2).

As shown in the image above, Martin and Angela’s taxable income will be split to take advantage of the lowest tax bracket. This means they will be taxed at 10% on the first $22,000 of their joint income, and their remaining taxable income will be taxed at 12%. In 2022, the maximum income allowed at the lowest tax bracket of 10% was $20,550. In 2023, the maximum income allowed will be $22,000.

If Martin and Angela fall into a higher tax bracket in the future, their taxable income will be broken down into each respective bracket to take advantage of the lower rates on what they can.

DRUMROLL, PLEASE…

After completing this exercise for all their taxable income, you can see that Martin and Angela’s total taxes owed in 2022 is $7,881 compared to $7,636 in 2023. This means they will pay $245 less federal taxes in 2023 than in 2022. While this is welcomed news, it is not a life-changing update.

If you have questions about your unique tax situation, please schedule a time to connect with our team. As always, we would love to hear from you!

Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes and not predictive of your 2022 tax situation. The fictitious example is not a complete presentation of a tax filing.

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As a Charted Financial Analyst serving as the firm’s Director of Investments and Compliance, I oversee the construction and management of client portfolios. How we go about investing client capital involves evaluating a variety of factors that move the markets. Given the economic backdrop for 2022, I thought it would be helpful to address a few of the components impacting the economy and subsequent stock and bond market volatility.

Historical trends suggest the current high levels of inflation will not persist.

 Inflation is higher than it has been for decades, exceeding 7.5% in the March to October 2022 numbers, represented in the purple line below. The breakeven rate between a 5-year Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) and a standard Treasury is commonly used as a benchmark for what average inflation over the next five years is expected to be. The graph below shows this in orange below, hovering around 2.34%.

What is causing inflation?

There are broadly two types of inflation:

1. Demand-pull inflation occurs when there is too much demand for a limited supply of items (too much money chasing too few goods).

2. Cost-push inflation occurs when the costs of inputs for producers increase, and those costs are passed along to consumers (too few inputs to produce too many goods).

Both factors are helping push inflation higher. Government stimulus in response to COVID and global supply chains having to adjust in response to the pandemic have both had their part in increasing inflation, along with many other factors.

What brings inflation down?

Macroeconomic theory believes that inflation falls when an economy slows down. A slower economy usually means higher unemployment and less spending and investment. This means there isn’t too much demand-pull inflation occurring because higher unemployment means there are fewer wages chasing the goods produced. Higher unemployment also tends to lead to lower cost-push inflation because the cost of labor typically goes down when unemployment is high.

The Fed is still working on a soft landing.

Higher inflation is not healthy for an economy long term. Banks still want to make money even when inflation is high, so they lend at higher rates to ensure they still make a profit after accounting for inflation. Higher interest rates result in a higher cost of borrowing, making any investment (buying a house, going to college, launching a new business, building a new production facility, etc.) more expensive. Households and companies invest less, which means fewer productive and good investments happen, slowing down the overall economy.

Because high inflation is unhealthy for an economy, the Federal Reserve (aka “The Fed”, the US central bank) is raising interest rates. The Fed’s goal is to raise interest rates high enough to slow down the economy and bring down inflation. The concern is that The Fed will be too aggressive in raising interest rates and cause a sharp economic downturn. The hope is The Fed can execute a soft landing, slowing down the economy enough to reign in inflation but not slowing down so much to trigger a major recession.

The job market is still experiencing labor scarcity.

Currently, there are about 5 million more open jobs than people looking for a job. Unemployment is below 4%, near the historical lows we were experiencing pre-pandemic. Due to labor scarcity, employees are seeing their wages rise.

The overall economy is seeing consistent growth.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most used measure of the size of an economy. Real GDP (rGDP) accounts for inflation. The orange line is a “trendline” for real GDP, based on the average growth of rGDP from 2012 to 2017. As you can see, GDP is not far off from what would have been expected if the COVID downturn & recovery had never occurred. While the first half of 2022 had two-quarters of negative GDP growth (a common definition of a recession), Q3 2022 saw the economy grow.

Company earnings are still increasing despite downturns.

The following chart illustrates earnings growth compared to the S&P 500. The market tends is forward-looking, setting prices based on what is expected to happen. Current fears about inflation & The Fed triggering a downturn by raising interest rates too much too quickly are pushing the market down. Earnings reflect what companies earned in the previous three months. While there is a lot of anxiety about the state of the economy, companies are continuing to earn money and will continue to do so even in a downturn.

What does this mean for you and your portfolio?

In conclusion, there are contradictory messages. The economy quickly recovered from the global pandemic, and the workers are enjoying a solid labor market with wages rising. The positive economic news is contrasted with poor investor experience in the stock market. Concerns about high inflation and The Fed’s anticipated aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation have the market worrying about a recession. With all this happening, companies have continued to grow their earnings.

While there is conflicting information in the short term, we continue to anticipate long-term growth in the economy and stock market. Having a sound financial plan that accounts for downturns and uncertainties is crucial. Feel free to reach out if you have any questions about your plan or have had any changes in your financial situation.

All data courtesy of YCharts Nov 29, 2022.

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One of my favorite market commentators is Dr. David Kelly, an economist whose research focuses on the investment implications of an evolving economic environment. His insights are rooted in theory and application, which help make the work he publishes comprehensive and practical. In his most recent article, he notes the following:

“As America emerges from the pandemic, there are still serious health concerns, a yawning political divide, rising autocracy around the world, a brutal war in Europe and the highest inflation in 40 years. Moreover, anxiety triggered by these genuine problems is being amplified by cable channels and social media which ever more efficiently gather their audience by appealing to fear and outrage.[1]”

— DR. DAVID KELLY

With this backdrop, I will try to share my thoughts on the market, economy, and implications for investors.  

Market declines: We’ve been here before.

Whether looking at the stock market, bond market, or commercial and residential real estate markets (to name a few), all are down for the year. With widespread asset price declines, renewed volatility is unnerving for many of us. These are challenging times to have capital deployed into the market. However, volatility and risk are the primary reasons investors in the market have achieved meaningfully better returns than cash over most market cycles.

The narrative surrounding this market cycle continues to evolve—the reasons "why" we are experiencing market gyrations and asset declines today differ from past times. However, I have great hope and confidence markets will normalize and begin their next run higher—in the same way they have done following each of the last downturns dating back to 1825. [2] In my 25+ years advising clients, I have experienced managing assets through significant market declines, with the most recent being Q1 2020, and most memorable 2007-2009, and 2000-2002. The cause for these markets was different, but the result was the same for those who managed their emotions through turbulence.

How is the economy responding to the current market?

Economic activity is beginning to slow. The most notable remark came from Fed-Ex, which reported a slowdown in shipments—a real-time data point highlighting growing constraints from corporations and consumers alike. Although the Fed-Ex announcement is one observation, it is congruent with analysis conducted by Dr. Kelly and others, highlighting a slowing economy domestically and abroad.

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) job is exceedingly tricky, given that inflation affects everyone and the primary defense for rising prices is interest rate hikes. At the same time, if interest rate increases are applied excessively, they stand to constrain the economy, which in turn could inflict pain on households through job loss and a decline in asset prices. Concern over Federal Reserve policy mistakes has begun to capture the headlines, with notable economists Mohamed El-Erian and Jeremy Siegel blasting the Fed for raising interest rates too aggressively.

The tension between the actions of the Fed and prominent economists may cause the Fed to exercise more constraints when deciding on interest rate policy in the future. Ultimately, we hope Fed Chairman Powell and his colleagues around the country can orchestrate a soft landing for the economy—which involves moderating rate hikes and extinguishing inflation while maintaining reasonable economic growth.

Our financial plans factor in these conditions.

Financial planning is essential to helping to create positive customer outcomes and providing wise counsel in all market and economic conditions. Recently, a retired client and friend called concerned about the market. They asked if they should reduce their overall risk and sell a portion of their equities. After a review of their financial plan, it was determined that despite the market decline, they were on target to maintain their spending goals; therefore, no immediate action was needed.

Our recommendation for this client included a study on their financial plan's probability of success. The probability analysis simulates their plan's likely outcomes based on good and bad markets. When coupling their planning inputs with their probability analysis and considering their cash and bond holdings, it is easier to look past the market and focus on their plan, including simulations for markets like we are in now.

Please know we understand how unnerving it is to see account balances drop and to feel that the world is unraveling. However, it is imperative that we remain objective and focused on our disciplined approach to both planning and investing. When speaking with your advisor, their answer may be "stay the course." This is our way of saying we have looked at your plan and are prepared for times such as these. Attempting to control the market or predict capital market outcomes sets us up for failure. However, focusing on what we can control, utilizing industry-leading technology, and leveraging a team of experienced credentialed experts are the best approaches with the highest probability of success for our clients and their plans. [3]

As has been the case since hiring Marc Kadomatsu, CFP to Human Investing, financial advice dispensed through the lens of financial planning has been the cornerstone of our service offering at Human Investing. Marc previously served as the head of the Financial Planning Association for Oregon and SW Washington. We have added to his team the recent promotion of Will Kellar, CFP, to Partner. Will has tremendous experience in advising clients through a planning lens. Moreover, Will is responsible for training the next generation of financial planners as he currently serves on the faculty of Oregon's only accredited financial planning program at George Fox University. 

Diversification may be the key to your peace of mind.

Emotion management is complicated—particularly for those whose primary source of income is their investment portfolio. To help manage the anxiousness that may accompany turbulent markets, please consider the concept of diversification. The term "diversification" means we don't put all your eggs in one basket. Although you have one account statement from your primary brokerage affiliation (Schwab, Fidelity, Betterment, etc.), you have various investments. Each investment serves a purpose in helping you achieve your goals. Some investments like cash and short-term bonds are what we tap into to provide necessary liquidity without having to sell at a significant loss. At the same time, equities are for longer-term appreciation to help your portfolio generate returns that outpace inflation and taxes.

Although your portfolio performance and holdings are aggregated into a single statement, we ensure that customers are adequately diversified into many different holdings. That way, when it's time to take a necessary withdrawal, we have many options for where we can go for the cash. There is no easy way to manage emotions in volatile markets. However, knowing ample investments can be accessed to provide the needed financial resources is something to consider when looking at the portfolio as a whole.

Markets of all kinds experience ups and downs—which has been my experience since 1996. The current downturn has several major markets down in excess of twenty percent year-to-date. Countries and regions go through economic cycles for various reasons and durations. The economy is showing signs of a slowdown, which could negatively impact consumers and businesses alike. With both the market and the economy on edge, we believe it is paramount for investors to stay disciplined, avoid acting on emotion and lean on their financial plan and advisor to help them make informed financial decisions.

[1] Kelly, D. (2022, September 19). Why the Fed should worry less about sticky inflation (but probably won't). Notes on the Week Ahead, JP Morgan Asset Management.

[2] Gladhill, A. (2019, September 12). Return histogram: Stock market annual returns 1825-2017. Investment Committee Q32019, Human Investing.

[3] Bennyhoff, D. G., & Kinniry Jr, F. M. (2016). Vanguard Advisor's Alpha®. Vanguard, June, http://bit. ly/2gXMDCs.

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Are you fearful a recession might be around the corner?

There’s been a lot of chatter about the state of the economy and whether we’re in a recession, or if one’s already passed. Whatever the situation, we wanted to help put things into perspective and remind you of the things you can (and cannot) control if uncertainty is on the horizon.

The widespread definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of a decline in real GDP (Gross Domestic Product). However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." No matter which yardstick we use to measure a recession, here is what you need to know:

• Recessions are a natural part of the business cycle. There have been 34 recessions since 1857, ranging from more than five years to the pandemic-driven contraction of 2020 that lasted two months.

• Recessions do not necessarily coincide with a decrease in the stock markets.

• No two recessions are alike in cause, length, or intensity.

• Recessions are marked as a time of heavy uncertainty and an increase in job insecurity.

Planning for a recession is difficult.

Using the general definition, we won't know we are in a recession until six months after it starts. Rather than worrying about a recession (which is out of our control), investors should focus on things that they can control. When future economic uncertainties arise, here is a list of things that you can do to prepare yourself better:

1. Re-evaluate the size of your emergency fund.

The amount someone should keep on hand should correspond with their living expenses, income instability, stage of life, risk tolerance, etc. This amount is typically 3 to 12 months of living expenses. An unforeseen medical bill or a temporary lapse in employment can happen anytime. Arming yourself with a cash safety net is your first defense against debt or selling your investments during a market downturn. For more information, read our blog about understanding the role of cash in a financial plan.

2. Analyze your spending.

Watching how much you spend builds awareness of your current spending habits. Understanding essential vs. nonessential expenses will make it easier to navigate your budget if your income disappears. Bonus: a better understanding of your spending can help you spend less and thus help you save more.

3. Bolster your professional network and skills.

Prioritize efforts to develop strong long-term relationships with essential connections. You may also invest in yourself with job-related skills and by polishing your résumé to ensure you are prepared for an unanticipated lapse in your employment.

4. Assess your investment portfolio.

Recessions don't always coincide with a stock market selloff. However, ensuring your investments are aligned with your goals is essential. Before a downturn in the market is the best time to position your portfolio based on your risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals. If you are unsure of your investment strategy, get in touch with a financial advisor to ensure you have the formula for successful investing.

5. Review your insurance coverage.

Start with the basics. Review what you have vs. what you need.

• What kind do you have? Is your protection tied to your job?

• Do you have enough dollar-amount coverage?

• Do you need to adjust, more or less?

Remember the things you can and cannot control. Take your time to examine what you want to prioritize. While we can't predict precisely when a recession will occur, we can plan, prepare, and adjust appropriately to survive any economic storm. If you want to talk with one of our advisors, please call Jill at 503-905-3100.

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April, May, and June 2022 have been long, emotional months. The purpose of our charts of the quarter posts is to provide financial updates, and it may be no surprise that this post is focused on interest rates, housing prices, and market volatility.

1: Interest rates increased by HALF A PERCENT in May 2022

On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by ½ a percent. While ½ of a percent may feel insignificant, this was the most significant interest hike in more than two decades.

What does an increased interest rate mean for you? It means that borrowing money from the bank is more expensive. It has also historically been good news for your saving and investment accounts.

Specifically, this chart summarizes investment returns since 1990 after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by at least ½ a percent. As you can see, on average, stocks returned +20.5%, and bonds returned +13.8% one year after the interest rate hike. Only time will tell what happens, but it wouldn’t surprise us if returns got better in the coming months.

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Source: Morningstar

2: How long does it take to get your money back?

During Q2 2022 – from April 1 – June 30, the S&P 500 returned -16%. Checking your account balance hasn’t been a pleasant experience in Q2 ’22.

Most people want to know the answer to the question, “how long is it going to take to get my money back?” Since this was a recurring question this quarter, Andrew Gladhill wrote a blog post called Payback Periods: How Long to Make Your Money Back. We encourage you to read the full article, but we selected one chart to share from this post.

This chart states that 95% of the time, it takes nine months for investors to, once again, reach another all-time high in their account. Said differently, most of the time, the market rewards investors who stay invested for at least nine months. What does this mean for you?

Remaining invested and, in the case of 401(k) accounts, continuing to invest your dollars is the easiest way to see your account balance recover. This can be an uncomfortable experience, and we recommend reaching out to our team if you feel uneasy or want to brainstorm ways to adjust your account strategies.

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Source: CFA Institute

3: Are we heading into a recession?

Source: Google

Are we heading into a recession? Are you feeling worried, fearful, and frustrated? As this chart illustrates, the Google Trend for the search engine “recession” since the beginning of 2022 has quadrupled.

Everyone is looking for an answer that doesn’t exist. We cannot predict if there will be a recession or how long it will last. We know that recessions are a regular, unavoidable part of economic cycles.

Here are a few questions to ask yourself in preparation for a recession:

Do I have job security?
Does my spouse have job security?
What fixed expenses do I have? (Examples may include mortgage payments, car payments, daycare payments, and recurring health care payments)
Do I have emergency savings to pay for my fixed expenses?
Would a recession change my current investment strategy?
Does anyone really know if there is a recession coming?

We also know that compared to the recent past, US Households currently have more cash and cash equivalents in their bank accounts. This chart, dating back to 2015, shows the rise of cash on hand for US Households. We may be more prepared for a recessionary period than we think we are. As the previous recession preparation questions suggest, it is essential to have liquidity during a recessionary period to help pay for fixed costs, protect against a loss of income, and to avoid selling investments while the markets are volatile.

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Source: A Wealth of Common Sense

If you need help answering any of the questions above, please contact your team of advisors at Human Investing.

4: Mortgage rates doubled in Q2 2022

Mortgage rates, as you may have seen, surged in Q2’22. Average mortgage rates went from 3% to 6%, which is the most significant one-week increase in interest rates since 1987. At about 6%, 30-year mortgage rates are back to where they were in November 2008. 

We wanted to share this chart which illustrates the increase in mortgage payments since 2015. As you can see, monthly mortgage payments have increased over time, but 2022 has experienced a remarkable surge in average monthly mortgage payments.

Let’s see how the rest of summer unfolds. Suppose you are in the market to buy a home. In that case, we highly recommend understanding all the costs associated with purchasing a home, including closing costs, property taxes, monthly payments, and repairs.

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Source: Redfin

For a more in-depth overview, read this Redfin article.

Our team is always here for you should you have any questions or concerns about your financial landscape.

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Inflation can lay waste to portfolios and wages, which is one of many reasons why inflation is concerning for laborers and investors alike. Some speculate that the rise in inflation is from supply chain congestion, resulting from labor shortage due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Others hypothesize that a flood of liquidity into the global economy, which stems from quantitative easing dating back to the financial crisis in 2007-2009, is the cause of rising prices. Regardless of the reason, the concern is that gains in wages and market appreciation are muted, or worse, erased, by an escalation in prices for goods and services.

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Inflation’s History

It has been three decades since we've seen inflation at current levels and even longer since inflation averaged double digits (several different times in the mid-70s to early 80s)[1]. Clients of our firm who remember the 1970s recall long gas lines, borrowing for a home purchase at 15%, and investing in treasury bonds at over 10%.

Consider this: in October of 1981, the 30-year mortgage rate was 18.45%[2]. As I type, that sort of rate seems almost unthinkable, yet it's true. To illustrate how it would impact the average homeowner or investor today, imagine a $500,000 home purchase with a 20% down payment. An individual would be financing $400,000 and be left with a $6,175 payment!

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How Does Inflation Work?

Inflation works in a similar way with food, gas, and other products and services we use regularly. Inflation can be viewed as a tax that leaves consumers with less to spend at the end of each month. With consumers facing higher prices, the dollars they spend must go to the staples such as food, housing, and gas—while potentially having less to spend on discretionary items such as travel and entertainment.

To combat inflation, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) will typically increase short-term borrowing costs on member banks—which in turn, trickles down to the consumer. Managing inflation is a primary objective of the Federal Reserve. The inflation target for the Federal Reserve is 2%. With both headline and core inflation trending well above those targets, aggressive rate increases are warranted. Surely the invasion of the Ukraine by Russia has complicated the Fed’s rate decision. My previous article “War and the Market: What Does History Teach Us?” discusses this topic further. Despite the concern over the war in Ukraine, the question is not if the Fed will raise rates. Instead, it’s a matter of how fast the Fed will hike rates and when they will stop.

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Our Recommendations

First, revisit your budget. See where you are seeing the biggest increases as some individuals are impacted far more than others. For example, my brother is a sports fisherman who is impacted much more by the price of fuel than I am with a five-mile commute to work. At the same time, a family of seven will feel food inflation much more than my parents, who have been empty nesters for almost 30 years. Secondly, once you have revised your budget, a conversation with your advisor can be warranted. For some who are living off a fixed income, the process will require pairing back or needing larger distributions from your portfolio. For others, it may prompt a change in your investment mix. While for many clients, the process may entail staying the course.

Investors whose investment horizon is long-term should continue to invest in a diversified, low-cost, equity-leaning portfolio. However, for investors who are either uneasy with market gyrations or have a more condensed investment timeline, multiple levers can be pulled to potentially position the portfolio to hold up well during inflationary times. Many experts agree that treasury bills and private real estate hold up well during inflation. [3],[4] It is also important to note that during inflation cycles, equities do well; however, volatility can increase, making maintaining a portfolio heavy on stocks problematic for investors whose emotions can get the best of them.

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Guidance for Those who are Worried

If you are prone to worry about your investments, there are several actions to consider. First, consider looking at your investments less often. This does not mean a “head in the sand” approach. Instead, if you are looking at your portfolio a few times per day, consider a few times per week. Or, if it’s weekly, consider checking in on your accounts monthly. Second, look at history for context surrounding the volatility. What you will find is that the market, on average, experiences a 14% intra-year drops since 1980. This may not provide you all the peace you want , but having perspective on what is normal can be helpful in curbing emotions. To further combat mixing emotions with investments, read “How to Avoid the Investing Cycle of Emotions” by our own Will Kellar, CFP®. Finally, if the volatility is cause for sleepless nights, you may be someone that needs to take less risk, meaning a conversation with your advisor is warranted.

Because the course of this inflationary cycle is unknown, it is essential for all investors to track their spending to determine what impact inflation has had on budgets. For some, there is plenty of discretionary capital to absorb the increase prices; however, for others, it may be necessary to tighten the belt and prioritize essential spending, to minimize the impact of elevated costs.

[1] U.S. Inflation Calculator

[2] History of Mortgage Interest Rates

[3] Fama, E. F., & Schwert, G. W. (1977). Asset returns and inflation. Journal of financial economics, 5(2), 115-146.

[4] Crawford, G., Liew, J. K. S., & Marks, A. (2013). Investing Under Inflation Risk. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 123-135.

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If you have feedback for us, have questions, or would like to hear more on other topics we’ve not already covered, please email us directly at hi@humaninvesting.com. We cherish the emails and questions and look forward to connecting with you soon.

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As I write this in May 2022, most major asset classes are down for the year. Stocks, bonds, foreign or domestic, it’s hard to find an investment producing positive returns right now. Since no investor likes to see the balance in their account drop, we have received an uptick in client inquiries about whether it’s worth staying invested. The short answer is yes; we still recommend staying invested. Markets have historically recovered, and grown to new highs. Panicking and selling your investments when they’ve gone down in price is unhelpful for achieving your long-term investment goals. Staying invested when the markets are roiling is easy to say, hard to do.

If you’re interested in a longer, more data driven response about why you should stay invested, keep reading. A lot of client’s concerns boil down to “How long is it going to take for me to make my money back?”. Let’s call this amount of time it takes to hit a new all-time high for a portfolio the “payback period”.

For the returns, I pulled the Ibbotson SBBI US Large-Cap Stocks for equity, and the Ibbotson SBBI US Intermediate-term (5-year) Government Bonds for fixed income. This data compiles the monthly returns from January 1926 to March 2022. I took a 100% equity portfolio (100/0) and added 10% bonds to compare different allocations (i.e. 60/40 is 60% equity 40% fixed income). I assumed monthly rebalancing.

Source: CFA Institute

As the graph shows, the more conservative your allocation, the shorter the time-frame necessary to make your money back. The most aggressive allocations (100/0 and 90/10) can take about 15 years to make your money back. A more balanced investor (40/60 to 80/20) would expect around 7 years as the worst case to make their money back.

I want to emphasize these numbers reflect the absolute worst scenarios over nearly a century of investing. We could always see a new worst case. Typical experiences are usually not as extreme. Even just looking at the 2nd longest time-frame to make your money back, and the longest payback is just over 6 years.

Source: CFA Institute

In most cases, you will make money in a relatively short amount of time if you remain invested. The final graph shows how long your investment horizon needs to be to have made money 95% of the time. As you can see, a majority of the time markets reward investors who stay invested for at least 9 months. That 5% of times where you haven’t made money in 9 months, we have seen some major draw-downs that took years to recover from. Make sure you have positioned yourself in a way where you are comfortable with all possible outcomes.

Source: CFA Institute

So, what do we do with this information? Some perspective for us all:

Understand the Time-frame you’re Investing For

If you’re not accessing funds for 15+ years, you shouldn’t worry about how long it takes to make the money back.

• If you are investing in a retirement account, keep doing that.

• If you move money monthly into a brokerage account, keep doing that.

If you are planning on accessing the funds in 10 years or less, consider incorporating bonds in your allocation to reduce risk, and shorten the time frame to recover a loss in value for your portfolio.

If you’re currently accessing your funds, have a financial plan to understand how you handle downturns in the markets and still achieve your financial goals

• Strategies for this include having a certain amount of cash on hand to cover market downturns, adjusting your budget as needed, etc.

Stay Invested

When you see your account balance down, know that remaining invested is the best way to recover lost value. Most of the time, you won’t have to wait for years to see your balance recover.

Plan in a way that Helps you Sleep at Night

If you can’t handle the thought of waiting seven years to make your money back, a 70/30 allocation may not be right for you. Have a financial plan in place that accounts for the worst-case scenarios, so you know you’ll be able to ride out any volatility in the markets.

Understand History can Only Tell us so Much

The markets could always find a new worst-case scenario. Use history as a guide for setting expectations, not absolute certainty of what is to come.

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It can be agonizing to watch your portfolio decline during a down market. Our human nature is to react erratically, which can be destructive to your financial plan. While it is important to stay the course, that doesn't mean you need to be idle. There is always an opportunity to do something to better your financial house. Here are a few productive things you can do as an investor during a down market: 

Do: 

Take Advantage of Opportunity

Invest cash: Risk assets like stocks are discounted, and as such, now may be a timely opportunity to invest the cash you have on the sidelines. Yes, markets may go down further, so be prepared for additional short-term losses. When investing additional dollars, don't let a desire to time the market-bottom perfectly get in the way of taking advantage of the opportunity.

Look for opportunities to Tax-loss harvest: Tax-loss harvesting allows you to get a tax break for poor-performing investments in a brokerage account. This strategy allows a taxpayer to offset other taxable gains and potentially claim a deduction against ordinary income. This is an unseen benefit for investors who have a brokerage account and want to use poor-performing investments to lessen their tax burden. (See Tax Tips in a Down Market) 

Keep an Eye on your Financial Goals

Rebalance: Market moves can result in a drift of your account's investments. Rebalancing your investments to your desired investment strategy can restore the appropriate level of risk and return to your account. Making sure you have an appropriate amount in stocks will help you take advantage of the possible market rebound. 

Accelerate Savings: Are you systematically saving into an investment account, such as a 401(k), IRA, or brokerage account? Consider making a larger contribution now to take advantage of the opportunity. This is a similar thought process to investing cash. 

Roth IRA conversions: Stock market downturns make for an opportunity to convert traditional IRA dollars to a Roth. When you convert dollars to a Roth IRA, you are responsible to pay income tax on the conversion amount. You are trading the tax-deferred (pay taxes when you withdraw) growth for tax-free growth. Before you complete a Roth conversion make sure you understand the tax implications and talk to your advisor or tax professional. 

An example: Your IRA was valued at $10,000 and is now valued at $8,000 due to market loss. To convert your IRA to a Roth, you would pay income tax on $8,000 rather than the previous amount of $10,000. Any growth from the time of the conversion is now tax-free for qualified withdrawals.  

Stay Educated

Read a book - My favorite personal finance book is the Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel. Housel provides timeless lessons about personal finance, human behavior, and long-term investing. Give it a read and let us know what you think. 

Don’t:

Don't invest short-term cash: Strategic cash cushions do have a significant place in a financial plan. Now is a prudent time to assess your cash holdings. Never use short-term dollars to invest. 

Don't watch your account or market too closely. Staring at a screen during periods of market fluctuations can be poisonous to your emotional wellbeing. Log out, take a deep breath, and go for a walk.

Don’t panic sell - The key thing for many investors is not to panic, stick to your plan. Remember that market declines are normal. This is the price of admission for long-term returns. 

 What We’re Doing for our Clients

Our team at Human Investing continues to carry our methodical approach to help steward our clients’ dollars. Our investment analyst team is constantly looking for opportunities to tax-loss harvest and rebalance. All the while, our Investment Committee persists in our due diligence for opportunities to enhance our investment strategies. 

While it is important to stay the course, that does not mean you need to sit on your hands and do nothing. We hope to provide you with a list of constructive things you can do to better your financial plan. Please let our team of credentialed advisors know if there is anything we can do to help you navigate the current market.  

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With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this week, many are wondering how a conflict in Europe will influence their own finances. In addressing this headline for our firm, please understand that the loss of life and the disruption of peace weighs heavy on me and our team. While considering investor concerns, our goal is to provide a point of view which I feel we are uniquely positioned to share amid war as a financial management firm.

Markets trade on future expectations. For example, if the market expects new jobs or a strong economy, then people and businesses adjust their decisions today, based on what they believe is coming. Remember how the market crashed when COVID-19 first hit the United States, but bounced back a month later? That’s because people were making choices based on expectations, not necessarily reality.[1] Because war follows a circuitous route, forecasts are less clear. Researchers accurately note that “the impact of conflict on human lives, economic development, and the environment is devastating.”[2]

Previous Wars and Invasions Show That Market Reactions can Range Wildly.

For example, in 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait and immediately the global stock markets declined.[3] In the three days that followed the Iraqi attack on Kuwait, the Dow Jones Index slid over 6%; yet in the first four weeks of Operation Desert Storm, the Dow gained 17%.[4] Additionally, the European Stock market responded positively to the second conflict with Iraq in early 2000. Stock market history has shown divergent reactions to war.

Surely, the economy of Ukraine will be devastated, but no one knows what the financial repercussions from this Eastern Europe conflict are. For example, when the news broke about Russia’s invasion, the European markets went down around 4%, but the US market went up by about 1.5% at the end of the day. We simply can’t predict the future, and the market changes moment-to-moment, day-to-day. The only real certainty is that volatility will resume as individuals and institutions place their bets on future predictions, and because of this, our client financial plans and asset mixes navigate all types of situations.

Finding your Footing in Uncertainty

Market related volatility is an un-welcomed but natural part of the investing journey, so our client portfolios at Human Investing are constructed with a plan and risk tolerance in mind. For example, a client that has cash needs to support their day-to-day expenses (such as a retiree) will often have a portfolio with equities that pay dividends, bonds that pay interest, and ample cash to cover upcoming obligations. On the other hand, investors who rely on equities should understand that stock volatility is the price we pay for the expected premium we receive in the long run over cash and bonds.

Although the headlines of “war” and “invasion” cause anxiety, the questions investors should ask are, “How is my plan working out?” and “Despite the market volatility, am I still on track?” Keep in mind that although the average annualized return of the S&P 500 since 1926 is approximately 10.5%, market swings may increase considerably. [5]  Investors should think about their financial plan, investment goals, timelines, and overall diversification to determine how well they are prepared to manage the ups and downs. Adjustments can always be made to ease the concern in the short term, but for most of our clients, their financial plan and current asset allocation take into account market downturns, caused by a myriad of events, including invasions and war.  Through it all, we at Human Investing are present in all of life’s ups and downs as we faithfully serve the financial pursuits of all people.

[1] Frazier, L. (2021, February 11). The coronavirus crash of 2020, and the investing lesson it taught us, Forbes. The Coronavirus Crash Of 2020, And The Investing Lesson It Taught Us

[2] Cranna, M. (1994). The true cost of conflict. New York: New Press. The true cost of conflict / | Colorado Christian University

[3] Richter, P. (1990, August 3). Markets react to Kuwait crisis: Stocks: Invasion rocks market; dow slides 34.66, Los Angeles Times. MARKETS REACT TO KUWAIT CRISIS : Stocks : Invasion Rocks Market; Dow Slides

[4] Schneider, G., & Troeger, V. E. (2006). War and the world economy: Stock market reactions to international conflicts. Journal of conflict resolution, 50(5), 623-645. War and the World Economy: Stock Market Reactions to International Conflicts

[5] Maverick, J. B. (2022, January 13). What is the average annual return for the S&P 500? Investopedia. S&P 500 Average Return: Overview, History, and Factors

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Season’s Greetings! We have assembled this post during the final days of 2021. We hope you have enjoyed some rest these past few days and you are heading into 2022 feeling optimistic.

As promised, we are sharing some of our favorite charts from Q4. Specifically, we included charts that include information about the increase in Social Security benefits, the S&P500’s 69 all-time highs in 2021, mentioning the S&P500 powerhouses, and reviewing some annual price changes.

1: Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits will increase 5.9% in 2022.

In October, it was announced that Social Security benefits will increase by 5.9% starting in January 2022. As this chart indicates, the 5.9% increase starting in 2022 is the largest uptick since the 1980’s. This is good news for most people since social security checks will be bigger.

The increase in benefits impacts households who are already taking social security and those who will be taking their benefits soon. If you haven’t already received the COLA notice in the mail, you can access your updated Social Security statements here: my Social Security | SSA

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Source: Lance Lambert

2: The S&P500 reached 69 all-time highs in 2021.

Throughout this past year, the S&P500 hit a new all-time high 69 times. That’s remarkable! You should spend some time looking at this chart, but as a sneak peek, 1995 is the only year that incurred more all-time highs that 2021.

What does this mean for you? Looking back, it means that checking your account balances in 2021 was thrilling if you have exposure to the S&P500. To summarize the year’s performance, the index is up almost 30% since January 1, 2021.

During market years with this many records, the stock market attracts fair-weather fans. Going forward, we recommend that you define and/or revisit your investment goals and stick to your plan as best as possible.

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Source: Charlie Bilello

3: The S&P500 powerhouses.

The S&P500 is a stock market index that measures the performance of about 500 companies in the US. If you have attended one of our group presentations, then you may recognize that we often say that “the S&P500 is synonymous with the US stock market”.

By the end of 2021, there were 6 companies that made up 26% of the market capitalization (# of shares x price of the shares) of the S&P500. These same 6 companies only made up 10% of the S&P500’s total revenue, or the money the companies pulls in from their sales.

This chart made an appearance in our final Charts of the Quarter post for 2021 as a reminder that these six organizations (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Tesla, and Meta Platforms) have kept their spots in the starting line-up of the US stock market. We can also give kudos to these six companies for the S&P500’s returns in the recent past. Since 26% of the S&P500 has strong performance, the 2021 bad apples received less attention.

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Source: @Sean_YCharts

4: Picking trends is (still) hard.

We assembled a chart with two companies that we rely on everyday — Peloton and Zoom. Zoom has been crucial for engaging with our clients these past two years and many Human Investing employees converted to Peloton workouts mid-pandemic. Look at this chart! There is a disconnect between Zoom and Peloton’s abysmal performance in 2021 and our expectations as loyal customers.

Let this chart be a reminder that picking trends in the stock market has always been challenging and it will continue to be going forward. Investing in individual companies can lead to a make-or-break situation.

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Source: @Sean_YCharts

5: Inflation took over headlines in Q4 2021.

Overall, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose 6.2% from October 2020 to October 2021. This is the fastest annual increase since 1990. While it is true that things got more expensive this past year, inflation is a delicate topic because every year some things get more expensive while other things become more affordable. For this reason, we try to avoid generalizations about inflation.

As the chart indicates, this past year we have experienced a concentrated increase in transportation costs like fuel oil, motor fuel, car and truck rentals, piped utility gas service, and used cars and trucks. Meanwhile, the average cost of an airline ticket has decreased compared to 2020.

We agree that inflation is uncomfortable. That is a true statement even though inflation is always moving and rarely a stable metric.

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Source: The New York Times

That is a wrap for the 2021 year. We wish you the very best 2022! — Your Human Investing Team

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Welcome to fall! Before we race to the pumpkin patch, let’s look back on July, August and September. We selected 5 different visuals from the past quarter to share with you.

1: The S&P 500 Reaches an All-time High

On September 2, 2021, the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high (see chart). While this is a record-breaking statistic, the S&P 500 has also experienced more than 50 all-time highs in 2021. Prior to this year, there are only six other calendar years with at least 50 record closes (2017, 2014, and 1995 are the most recent years).

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As a result of these market highs, we have noticed heightened concerns about a looming market crash. Because what goes up, must come down?? The two most common concerns we hear are:

1. “I know the market is at an all-time high. I want to sell my investments today and reinvest these dollars when the market crashes in the coming months”. See chart 2 for our typical response.

2. “I know the market is going to crash. I want to move all my money into something safe like cash or bonds. What do you think I should do?”

If you are someone that is worrying about your investments (maybe it’s something entirely different from the two concerns listed above), please reach out to our team so we can listen to your concerns and build an investment strategy for you going forward. To be frank, the timeline for spending 401(k) dollars impacts the advice we give. For example, we would give different advice to someone planning to spend their 401(k) savings soon than to someone in their mid-forties with no intentions of spending their 401(k) soon.

2: What About This Looming Market Crash?

If you have setup a 401(k) account, then you are investing your dollars every single pay period. This phenomenon is called dollar-cost averaging and it works really well for most retirement accounts. If you have a 401(k) account, we recommend leaning into dollar-cost averaging, setting up annual account rebalancing, and assessing your account strategy periodically. Of course, this strategy is not one-size-fits-all. Some investors prefer to intervene with their investments if they are predicting an upcoming market crash.

That being said, we recently found this article by Nick Maggiulli that compares gradually investing a consistent dollar amount (like per paycheck 401(k) contributions) to saving dollars up to buy a market dip. Please take the time to read the whole article, but if you want the cliff notes here you are:

• The article points out that stockpiling cash in anticipation of a market crash is an unlikely strategy to win out in the long run.

• Trying to buy the dip usually fails because large dips are rare. As a result, the strategy turns into stockpiling cash which is not a good idea for the long-term.

• If you do want to try and buy the dip, think about getting your cash invested in the stock market as soon as possible.

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For some help interpreting this chart, here is the text directly from Nick Maggulii’s blog post. “This chart shows that there is roughly a one in four chance of beating DCA when using a Buy the Dip strategy with a 10%-20% dip threshold. If you were to use a 50% dip threshold, the chance of outperforming DCA increases to nearly 40%. But this doesn’t come without a cost. Because while you are more likely to outperform DCA when using a bigger dip threshold, you also underperform by more (on average) as well.”

3: Monthly Child Tax Payments

July 2021 was the beginning of the monthly child tax credit payment for parents. Did you see our 20-minute webinar about the child tax credit, why it matters, and some financial planning considerations for parents?

Flash-forward a few months, and we have found a study of 1,514 American parents who received the monthly child tax credit payments. As you can see, most parents have saved their payments for emergencies which is a disciplined usage of the excess cash.

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4: Vanguard Announces Lower Fees for Target Retirement Funds

In late August, Vanguard announced they are lowering the expense ratio (the cost) of their target-date funds by February 2022. We believe this is good news for all investors using Vanguard target retirement funds!

Vanguard will lower the expense ratio to 8 basis points meanwhile they are committed to maintaining the same glidepath methodology and asset allocation.

To articulate the cost savings, we assembled a table showing the potential impact for someone invested in a Vanguard target retirement fund with the updated expense ratio. For someone with $100,000 in a Vanguard target retirement fund, this lowered expense ratio means immediate annual savings. Just to be clear, the $90 vs $80 are annual fees which add up to be meaningful cost savings for you over a long period of time. Cheers!

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5: Be Careful who you Get Advice From

How many self-proclaimed market savants are sharing their opinions with the world? So many! Be careful who you listen to. We couldn’t help but include some humor in this post. Feel free to relish in the ridiculousness of this chart.

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That concludes our Charts of Q3 2021 post. We will be assembling the next Charts of the Quarter post before we know it. Take care! — Your Human Investing Team

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Many of our blog articles are inspired by conversations we have throughout the week. This article on the S&P 500 stock market performance and capital gains tax increases is no exception. The question we are being asked is, "what do you think is going to happen with the market if capital gains go up?" Our recent response has been, "let us do some research and circle back to you." Here is what we found:

1. Federal capital gains tax rates are currently near 70-year lows

2. The proposed bill (House Ways & Means Committee, September 13, 2021) increases the top capital gains rate from 20% to 25% on income above $400,000.

3. The previously proposed rate was 39.6% but kicked in at $1,000,000 of income.

4. Table 1 below provides a side-by-side of the recent proposal with current capital gains rates and income brackets.

With this background on where rates have been and what is being proposed, we look to address the question, "so what happens to the market when capital gains rates go up?" Table 2 below tells an interesting story. Although there is market anxiety leading up to the proposed capital gain tax change, which results in a negative average return, the six months following the tax increase, the market is favorable. Wait, what? Excuse me for a minute while I reexamine Table 2. Ok, yes, the market is actually up after a proposed tax increase on capital gains.

As we have learned from our 25 years advising clients, anything is possible, and history does not always repeat itself. Another lesson learned from experience is that the market does not care about our charts, nor does it give a rip about our attempt to explain what might be. It is nice to know that cap gains tax hikes do not always mean turbulent markets are ahead. In fact, the market has performed above the historical average when a cap gain tax hike is put in place—at least, that is the case for the six months following the increase.

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