Elite performance isn’t about doing everything at once; it’s about prioritizing the right moves at the right time. Your finances deserve that same level of intentionality. You probably have many competing goals and need to find the best way to prioritize spending, debt pay down, and saving for the future, among other things.

Selecting the optimal avenue for your dollars can be challenging when you have access to Nike’s unique savings avenues. It is important to fill the most beneficial buckets first. The order we have detailed below is not a “one size fits all” approach. Building your financial plan around your goals and unique circumstances will help determine the savings opportunities that will be the most impactful for you.

1. Contribute enough to get your Nike employer match on your 401k

Deferring 5% of your income to your Nike 401k is a strategic way to maximize free dollars. This helps grow your retirement savings and amplifies the long-term benefits of your investment. Additionally, you have the option to save pre-tax dollars or Roth dollars, allowing you to choose when you pay tax on your contributions. Whether to contribute via Roth or pre-tax is best determined by your unique financial plan.

2. Enroll and maximize your HSA contributions

One benefit of participating in Nike’s healthcare coverage is the opportunity to utilize the Health Savings Account (HSA). Those covered by the high-deductible healthcare plan (HDHP) can take advantage of tax-deductible contributions along with tax free earnings and withdrawals when used for qualified medical expenses.

Being covered under the high-deductible health care plan (HDHP) is not for everyone. It depends on your health needs and financial flexibility. Each person is unique and should consult a professional for their specific circumstances. 

3. Save extra into your 401k via Mega Backdoor Roth contributions

If you have filled all the prior buckets and still have additional cash flow, consider putting extra money into your 401k through Mega Backdoor Roth contributions. This savings vehicle allows you to go above and beyond traditional 401k contribution limits. You pay taxes on these dollars now and withdraw them tax-free in retirement. Contributions can be made up to 3% of your compensation, limited to a maximum of $360,000 of eligible compensation. This is a great savings opportunity to contribute extra funds, up to $10,800 on top of the standard $24,500 standard deferral limit, to your Nike 401k account.

4. Maximize ESPP Deferrals

Saving into the ESPP bucket is a way to purchase Nike shares at a 15% discount. You can contribute up to $21,250 through salary deferrals. If you have a steady cash flow, saving into your ESPP can feel like instant growth on Nike stock if you sell the shares right after they’re purchased. This strategy to immediately sell allows you to capture the discount and supplement cash flow when the shares are purchased every six months. There are no taxes until the shares are sold, but the taxes on the discount and any gains can be complicated and should be reviewed by a tax or financial professional. 

5. Utilize Deferred Compensation savings

If you are eligible for Nike’s deferred compensation plan, utilizing this plan can help reduce your current taxable income while setting aside and investing funds for your retirement. Contributing to the Deferred Compensation plan defers Federal and state taxes and can help keep your taxable income below thresholds for local taxes. This plan requires precision to set up and maintain and will help optimize your retirement savings in your financial plan.

6. Execute a Backdoor Roth IRA Contribution

In 2026, you can contribute up to $7,500 to a traditional IRA, with an additional $1,100 catch-up contribution available for those over age 50. Making a tax-deductible contribution is subject to income phaseouts. If you don’t have an existing IRA balance, you could make a backdoor Roth IRA contribution even if your income is above these phaseout levels or above the income phaseouts for Roth IRA contributions. This is done by contributing after-tax dollars to a traditional IRA and converting those funds into a Roth IRA.

7. Open a taxable brokerage account

If you still have cash flow to save after filling all the previous buckets, using a taxable brokerage account to make additional investments can help fund your future financial goals. Saving into a taxable brokerage account can be especially helpful if funds will be used soon, such as if you are considering a new home purchase or paying for college. These accounts allow you to withdraw funds at tax-advantaged capital gains rates at any time. In particular, the flexibility of this account can be advantageous for those considering retiring early since there is no penalty for withdrawing funds before age 59½.

Want to see this in action?

Building a strong roadmap to reach your goals includes thoughtfully utilizing Nike’s employee benefits and prioritizing ways to save through ways that are the most beneficial for your unique needs. The various options you have available at Nike each have their own unique contribution limits, tax advantages, and benefits. Having a coordinated strategy allows you to create a game plan that suits your unique needs and supports your needs for today and ambitions for tomorrow.

The most effective savings hierarchy is one that is thoughtfully aligned with your broader financial picture. A comprehensive financial plan can help bring clarity to competing priorities and ensure your savings decisions are aligned with your short-term needs and long-term goals. Working with a financial advisor can help you sift through these buckets and determine the best way to optimize each dollar saved to secure a successful financial future.

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Disclosure: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment, legal, or tax advice. The strategies and steps outlined—such as building an emergency fund, contributing to employer-sponsored plans, paying down debt, or using HSAs, IRAs, and taxable accounts—are general in nature and may not be appropriate for every individual. You should consult a qualified financial or tax professional before making decisions based on your personal circumstances. There is no guarantee that following any financial strategy will achieve your goals or protect against loss. References to interest rates, contribution limits, or tax rules reflect information available at the time of publication and may change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Advisory services are offered through Human Investing, an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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One of the persistent temptations in investing is the belief that the future can be known, rather than simply estimated or viewed through a lens of probability.

Every so often, markets appear to reinforce this belief. It can happen when an analyst makes a sweeping economic call, a television personality highlights a stock, or an investor acts on a strong conviction about a single event. When such a call lands correctly, an investor’s confidence tends to grow much faster than their actual wisdom. This creates a unique brand of risk where the danger isn't being wrong but rather being "right" in a way that encourages all the wrong lessons.

Experience has taught me to treat these moments with caution, as a successful forecast can lead to increased activity, narrower positioning, and a reduced tolerance for uncertainty.

The pull of prediction

We currently live in an environment where market commentary often comes with an air of certainty. Forecasts with clean narratives and specific numbers can create the impression that the future is more orderly and manageable than it actually is. In this context, investing can begin to resemble wagering on specific outcomes rather than planning for inherent unpredictability.

The reality is that markets are complex adaptive systems shaped by a mix of fundamentals, incentives, psychology, policy decisions, and randomness.

Consequently, when a prediction proves accurate, it is rarely clear whether the result stemmed from genuine insight or mere circumstance. Because markets largely reward outcomes without distinguishing between skill and luck, investors are often left to conclude that their success was due to brilliance rather than chance.

Famous calls and their aftermath

History is generous in celebrating bold forecasts. Michael Burry, for instance, is rightly remembered for identifying the housing market excesses before the Global Financial Crisis. It was a significant call that required immense conviction and a high tolerance for sustained discomfort. However, what receives less attention is what happens after such a call is made. Since that episode, Burry has repeatedly warned of impending market downturns; while some concerns were thoughtful, many were premature, and others have been incorrect.  

We see a similar dynamic in the warnings issued by public figures. Robert Kiyosaki, for example, has repeatedly forecasted systemic collapse. The chart aligns several of those warnings with the path of the S&P 500, which over that period moved materially higher.

With enough attempts, even low-probability calls will eventually intersect with actual outcomes.

The common thread in both examples is that forecasting is rarely a single bet. One successful prediction often creates pressure to make another, or to double down on a view even after the market has moved on. This pattern reveals a fundamental distinction for investors: the difference between trying to be "right" and actually making a prudent decision. 

The danger of fixating on outcomes

That difference becomes unavoidable when we examine how outcomes are derived.

As professional poker player and author Annie Duke has observed “We are too quick to treat outcomes as a referendum on decision quality, when luck plays a much larger role than we are comfortable admitting.” This insight sits at the core of disciplined investing.

Outcomes, on their own, are an unreliable measure of decision-making. Well-reasoned decisions can lead to disappointing results. Poorly reasoned decisions can occasionally be rewarded. Over short periods of time, randomness can obscure the underlying quality of the process.

The challenge is that investors are wired to equate results with decision quality. If we judge our strategy solely by whether it was correct in the short term, we reinforce behaviors like excessive conviction and a refusal to reassess our positions. A more durable standard is required, one where the most important question is not whether a view proved correct, but whether the plan was robust enough to withstand being wrong.

The high cost of being too certain

When outcomes are mistaken for skill, the resulting overconfidence can quickly become destructive. Investors who believe they can forecast the market often increase their trading activity, bet too heavily on one specific direction, and abandon the protection of diversification in favor of short-term signals.

The irony is that the more certain an investor becomes, the more fragile their strategy tends to be. Portfolios built on specific predictions only work if those predictions come true, which provides a dangerously narrow margin of safety.

A different standard

From a fiduciary perspective, the objective is not to anticipate each market event correctly. It’s to build resilient plans that remain viable across a wide range of outcomes. This requires accepting uncertainty as a permanent feature of the landscape and prioritizing asset allocation, tax awareness, and emotional resilience over the allure of the next big forecast. While a prediction may be correct, any approach that depends on it’s success is fundamentally fragile.

Why I hope you’re wrong

Ultimately, when I hear a confident market prediction, my internal response is often, “I hope you’re wrong.”

My reaction is not born out of cynicism or a desire to see someone fail. Rather, it reflects an awareness of how slippery the slope can be once a prediction proves correct. Being wrong, while uncomfortable, serves an important purpose of reinforcing humility and preserving discipline.

Markets have a long history of humbling those who claim certainty. The investors who truly succeed over decades are those who respect that history, choosing to build financial plans that remain intact across a wide range of outcomes, including those they did not anticipate.

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Disclosure: This commentary is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment, tax, or legal advice. The views expressed are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no investment strategy can guarantee success or protect against loss. References to specific companies are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Human Investing is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

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Financial markets have become increasingly complex, making it difficult for individual investors to navigate successfully on their own. Investors often face the question of whether hiring a financial advisor truly provides enough value to justify the fees.

Recent comprehensive research by Vanguard, DALBAR, and other industry experts provides compelling evidence that professional financial advice offers significant value beyond basic investment selection. 

A case for having a pro on your side

Skepticism toward the financial advice industry is understandable—bad experiences, opaque fee structures, or conflicts of interest have burned many investors. Stories of sales-driven advice and misaligned incentives have cast a long shadow. This article is not a defense of every advisor, but rather a case for how true fiduciary advice—delivered transparently and with accountability, can provide measurable value in an increasingly emotional and volatile investing environment.

This emotional volatility is not hypothetical. We live in an era of heightened uncertainty, with rapid market shifts and global instability testing investor patience. As Fisher (2025) highlights in The Psychology of Market Patience, staying invested through turbulence demands far more than logic—it requires resilience. In these moments, the steady presence of a fiduciary advisor can serve as both guide and guardrail, helping investors remain committed to their long-term goals.

Professional advisors serve not only as planners and portfolio managers but also as behavioral coaches and accountability partners. This role is becoming even more essential as emotional decision-making erodes individual investor returns. The following sections explore how advisors can help improve portfolio outcomes, increase the likelihood of meeting financial goals, and reduce the emotional cost of investing.

They help enhance your portfolio performance

One of the most critical aspects of working with a financial advisor is the potential for improved portfolio performance. Contrary to the popular belief that advisors primarily add value by outperforming the market, research indicates that the most meaningful advisor contributions come from disciplined investment strategies. Advisors employ practices such as improved diversification, regular portfolio rebalancing, and tax-efficient investing, each enhancing long-term returns (Pagliaro & Utkus, 2019).

Vanguard’s research quantifies this benefit, estimating that financial advisors may add about 3% per year in net returns compared to a typical self-directed investor (Kinniry et al., 2022). This incremental gain, compounded over years, translates into significantly greater wealth accumulation.  

They can walk with you through turbulent times

According to DALBAR’s 2024 Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB) report, the average equity investor significantly underperformed the market. In 2023 alone, the typical equity investor earned 5.5% less than the S&P 500, marking the third-largest performance gap in the past decade (DALBAR, 2024). This underperformance primarily results from emotionally driven investment decisions, such as selling assets during downturns and missing subsequent rebounds.

DALBAR’s findings further illustrate this emotional cost during turbulent periods. For example, the average equity investor saw returns of -21.17% in 2022, compared to the S&P 500’s -18.11%. Even in the strong market rebound of 2023, investors again lagged the market substantially, achieving only 20.79% returns versus the S&P 500’s 26.29% (DALBAR, 2024). Such significant performance gaps highlight the crucial role of advisors in mitigating harmful investor behaviors.

they can lead you to your goals with precision

Beyond portfolio management, financial advisors significantly enhance investors' ability to achieve long-term financial goals such as retirement security. Vanguard’s study on Personal Advisor Services (PAS) reveals that advised investors have an 80% or higher chance of successfully meeting their retirement goals compared to investors without professional guidance (Pagliaro & Utkus, 2019).

The role of fiduciary advisors—professionals legally obligated to act in the best interests of their clients—is particularly critical. According to Sheldon Geller, fiduciary advisors are required to disclose and mitigate conflicts of interest, ensuring investment decisions prioritize client goals over personal or company gain. This fiduciary responsibility provides investors with assurance and confidence, contributing to better financial outcomes (Geller, 2017).

They provide emotional stability

One of the most valuable yet often overlooked benefits of financial advice is the emotional stability it provides. Behavioral finance studies show that individual investors frequently succumb to emotional biases such as overconfidence, excessive trading, and holding onto losing investments too long.

Maymin and Fisher (2011) emphasize the value financial advisors add through behavioral coaching, helping clients avoid impulsive decisions during market downturns. Vanguard's research quantifies this emotional benefit, attributing between 0 and 2% in additional annual returns to behavioral coaching alone (Kinniry et al., 2022). Trust and personal connection further account for nearly half of the perceived value in advisor-client relationships, empowering clients to stay committed to their investment strategies during volatile periods (Pagliaro & Utkus, 2019). 

They will help you stick to a long-term strategy

Investor discipline, encouraged by advisors, remains critical for achieving optimal returns. DALBAR’s findings underscore how investor behavior significantly impacts returns. The report indicates that investors who maintain long-term strategies, supported by professional guidance, substantially outperform those who make emotional decisions (DALBAR, 2024).

The historical evidence from DALBAR’s extensive research over the past 30 years consistently shows that emotional investment decisions are detrimental. Advisors counteract this by instilling discipline, maintaining structured investment strategies, and reinforcing long-term thinking, resulting in better investment outcomes.

find an advisor who helps you go further than you could alone

Despite substantial evidence supporting the value of financial advice, some investors remain skeptical, often due to isolated cases of underperformance by certain advisors. However, focusing solely on short-term investment returns can be misleading. The primary value of financial advice lies in comprehensive financial planning, disciplined behavioral coaching, and fiduciary oversight.

Investors should critically evaluate advisors based on their holistic service offerings, transparency, and fiduciary commitment rather than just short-term market performance. Effective advisors deliver measurable benefits through strategic planning, emotional guidance, and long-term investment discipline.  

being a FIDUCIARY matters

Understanding the differences among fiduciary, quasi-fiduciary, and non-fiduciary advice is essential. According to Fisher (2025), only about 4.92% of financial professionals in the U.S. operate as fee-only fiduciaries, legally obligated to place their clients' best interests above their own and disclose any potential conflicts of interest. Quasi-fiduciary advisors might follow fiduciary standards selectively or in certain situations but may still receive commissions or have other conflicts of interest. Non-fiduciary advisors, such as brokers, typically operate under suitability standards rather than fiduciary obligations, often leading to decisions that may not align with optimal client outcomes (Fisher, 2025).

The distinction between these advisory models is critical for investors. True fiduciary advisors provide greater transparency, reduce conflicts of interest, and often result in higher client satisfaction and better long-term financial outcomes. 

Invest wisely with professional guidance

Navigating today's financial landscape alone poses substantial risks, primarily due to emotional biases and complex market dynamics. Research from Vanguard, DALBAR, and leading financial experts clearly demonstrates the profound impact professional financial advisors have on investor outcomes. Advisors not only enhance portfolio returns but also significantly increase the likelihood of achieving critical financial goals and provide invaluable emotional reassurance.

Ultimately, investors who recognize and leverage the full spectrum of benefits offered by professional financial advice position themselves to achieve greater financial security, resilience, and long-term success.

References:

DALBAR. (2024). Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB) Report. DALBAR, Inc. Retrieved from www.qaib.com

Fisher, P. (2025, April 6). The psychology of market patience. Human Investing. Human Investing. https://www.humaninvesting.com/450-journal/psychology-of-market-patience

Fisher, P. (2025, February 14). An analysis of investment advisor representatives and bureau of labor statistics data: Determining the percentage of financial advisors acting as true fiduciaries. https://www.humaninvesting.com/450-journal/only-5-percent-of-advisors-are-true-fiduciaries. Human Investing.

Geller, S. M. (2017). Retaining a fiduciary investment advisor. The CPA Journal, 72-73.

Kinniry, F. M. Jr., Jaconetti, C. M., DiJoseph, M. A., Walker, D. J., & Quinn, M. C. (2022). Putting a value on your value: Quantifying Vanguard Advisor’s Alpha. Vanguard Research.

Maymin, P. Z., & Fisher, G. S. (2011). Preventing emotional investing: An added value of an investment advisor. The Journal of Wealth Management, 13(4), 34-43. https://doi.org/10.3905/jwm.2011.13.4.034

Pagliaro, C. A., & Utkus, S. P. (2019).Assessing the value of advice. Vanguard Research.

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A BOOK FOR THE SAVER IN ALL OF US

Becoming a 401(k) Millionaire isn’t your typical retirement guide. With 30 years in finance, Dr. Peter Fisher shares personal insights and real stories to help you plan with confidence.

Learn more

Disclosure: Human Investing is a registered investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. The information contained herein is believed to be accurate as of the publication date but is subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of any specific investment. Investors cannot invest directly in an index, and index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or taxes. The estimated value added by advisors is based on research and modeling assumptions that may not reflect actual investor experiences. Actual results will vary based on individual circumstances, market conditions, and advisor practices. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers should consult with a qualified financial advisor to assess their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions.

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A financial plan is a structured approach to managing one’s financial life. It is not merely a spreadsheet or a collection of investment products—it is a comprehensive framework that organizes income, expenses, savings, risk management, taxes, and long-term goals into a cohesive, actionable strategy. When constructed properly, a financial plan enhances decision-making, reduces uncertainty, and improves financial outcomes (Nissenbaum, Raasch, & Ratner, 2004).

Yet if financial planning is so powerful, why do so few follow through?

The answer often lies not in math, but in mindset. Research shows that even financially literate individuals struggle to plan for the future when they lack self-control, future orientation, or supportive social norms (Tomar, Baker, Kumar, & Hoffmann, 2021). A well-designed plan must account not just for assets and liabilities—but for human behavior. That’s why the best financial plans are often paired with an accredited fiduciary advisor, who offers a simple, visual, and tailored approach to help you make decisions.

At its core, a financial plan helps individuals clarify what matters most and align their resources accordingly. Whether navigating early adulthood, managing a growing family, or preparing for retirement, individuals benefit from a written plan that reflects financial priorities and personal values. In my work as a financial advisor and educator, I have seen that the most significant breakthroughs often come not from more money, but from more clarity.

the purpose of a financial plan

The purpose of a financial plan is twofold: to organize current financial resources and to make informed decisions about the future. This may sound straightforward, but the complexity of modern financial life often makes it difficult for individuals to answer even basic questions such as, "Can I afford this?" or "Am I on track?" A financial plan provides a framework to answer these questions thoughtfully and methodically.

More than a static document, a financial plan is a living tool. It should evolve alongside an individual's life stages, economic conditions, and shifting priorities. According to Nissenbaum, Raasch, and Ratner (2004), regularly reviewed and updated plans yield significantly better financial outcomes over time.

It starts with defining your goals

Goal-setting is the anchor of any financial plan. Without clear goals, even the most sophisticated strategies can lose direction. Goals give context to numbers and bring meaning to saving and investing. They can be short-term (saving for a vacation), mid-term (purchasing a home), or long-term (funding retirement or creating a legacy).

One of the most effective frameworks for goal setting is the SMART method—specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound. Goals should inspire and direct behavior. In my experience, clients who articulate their goals clearly are far more likely to follow through on their plans.

components of a comprehensive plan

A thorough financial plan includes several interdependent elements, each of which contributes to the individual's or household's overall financial health. According to Ernst & Young’s Personal Financial Planning Guide (Nissenbaum et al., 2004), the five essential components are:

1. Cash Flow and Budgeting
   Understanding income and expenses is the foundation of any financial plan. A clear cash flow picture allows individuals to make informed decisions about saving, spending, and giving. Budgeting is not about restriction; it is about intentionality. When individuals budget effectively, they begin to control their money rather than letting money control them.

2. Risk Management and Insurance
   Life is unpredictable. A good financial plan includes appropriate insurance coverage to protect against major disruptions—including illness, disability, death, or property loss. While not exciting, insurance serves as a financial firewall. Emergency savings also fall into this category, with most professionals recommending a reserve of 3 to 6 months of essential expenses.

3. Tax Planning
   Tax efficiency is a core pillar of financial planning. Smart planning reduces unnecessary tax burdens and aligns financial decisions with long-term goals. This includes strategic use of tax-advantaged accounts, such as IRAs and 401(k)s, as well as decisions around capital gains, charitable giving, and income timing.

4. Investment Planning
   Investments must serve the plan—not the other way around. A financial plan defines the purpose, time horizon, and risk tolerance for each investment goal. This helps investors avoid emotional decisions and focus on long-term strategies. Diversification, asset allocation, and periodic rebalancing are all part of this disciplined approach.

5. Retirement and Estate Planning
   A financial plan must consider the future. This includes projecting future income needs, optimizing Social Security benefits, managing required minimum distributions (RMDs), and crafting an estate plan that reflects one’s legacy goals. Planning ahead ensures that wealth is transferred intentionally and tax-efficiently.

Building a financial plan: a step-by-step process

While the components of a financial plan are well-established, the process of creating one can be deeply personal. Below is a common approach used by both individuals and professionals:

1. Establish Goals and Priorities
   Start by asking what matters most. What do you want your money to do for you? What are your non-negotiables? Apply the SMART method in making them more attainable. Writing these goals down is a powerful first step.

2. Gather Data
   Collect all relevant financial information, including income, expenses, debts, assets, insurance policies, and legal documents. The accuracy of your plan depends on the quality of your data.

3. Analyze and Diagnose
   Identify gaps, inefficiencies, or risks. This includes assessing debt levels, reviewing savings rates, stress-testing for emergencies, and evaluating investment alignment.

4. Develop Strategies
   Design strategies that address the specific needs uncovered in your analysis. This might include refinancing high-interest debt, increasing retirement contributions, or adjusting your investment allocation.

5. Implement the Plan
   Execution is where many plans fall apart. Automate good behavior when possible—automated savings, investment contributions, and bill payments reduce reliance on willpower.

6. Monitor and Review
   Plans should be reviewed at least annually, and anytime there is a significant life event (e.g., marriage, new job, birth of a child). Adjustments should be proactive, not reactive.

Behavioral considerations in financial planning

Financial planning is as much about psychology as it is about math. Behavioral finance has shown that individuals often act irrationally with money due to cognitive biases, emotional reactions, and social pressures. A written financial plan serves as a behavioral anchor—a tool that reduces the likelihood of impulsive decisions.

Recent research reinforces the role of psychology in retirement financial planning. Tomar, Baker, Kumar, and Hoffmann (2021) identify several psychological determinants that significantly impact whether individuals engage in effective planning. These include future time perspective (the ability to think long-term), self-control, planning attitudes, and financial knowledge. In other words, it is not enough to know what to do; one must also be inclined to do it. Social norms and perceived behavioral control also play an influential role, suggesting that a supportive environment enhances financial planning behavior.

Research has shown that investors with written plans are more likely to stay invested during market volatility, rebalance their portfolios regularly, and avoid the pitfalls of market timing. A plan brings structure, and structure supports discipline.

common mistakes and how to avoid them

Even well-intentioned individuals fall prey to common planning mistakes. These include:

• Neglecting emergency savings

• Underestimating expenses in retirement

• Taking on too much investment risk

• Failing to review insurance coverage

• Overlooking tax implications of financial decisions

• Not discussing financial goals with a spouse or partner

Avoiding these mistakes begins with awareness and regularly revisiting the plan. A good advisor doesn’t just build a plan—they help you adapt it.

the value of working with an advisor

While many individuals can build a basic plan on their own, the guidance of a fiduciary financial advisor can add significant value. Advisors provide objectivity, technical expertise, and behavioral coaching. At Human Investing, we believe our highest calling is to serve as guides—helping clients navigate complexity with wisdom and clarity.

Importantly, not all financial advisors are held to the same standard. A fiduciary advisor is legally obligated to act in your best interest. Yet even among those who use the fiduciary label, fewer than five percent operate without receiving any form of commission (Fisher, 2025). That’s why the true fiduciary standard—free from all commissions—should be the baseline, not the exception.

turn intention into action

A financial plan is not just a document—it’s a decision. It reflects your willingness to take control of your future instead of drifting into it. The most successful outcomes aren’t reserved for the wealthiest or the most analytical—they’re earned by those who start, stay consistent, and make adjustments along the way.

If you’ve made it this far, you already care about your financial future. The next step is simple, but powerful: act. Whether it’s writing down your goals, scheduling time to review your budget, or meeting with a fiduciary advisor, do one thing today that your future self will thank you for.

Your money needs a plan. And now, you have the framework to build one that works.

References
Fisher, P. (2025, February 14). Only 4.92% of advisors are true fiduciaries. Is yours? Human Investing. https://www.humaninvesting.com/450-journal/only-5-percent-of-advisors-are-true-fiduciaries

Nissenbaum, M., Raasch, B. J., & Ratner, C. L. (2004). Ernst & Young's personal financial planning guide. John Wiley & Sons.

Tomar, S., Baker, H. K., Kumar, S., & Hoffmann, A. O. (2021). Psychological determinants of retirement financial planning behavior. Journal of Business Research, 133, 432–449.

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Disclosures: Human Investing is a registered investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. The information contained herein is believed to be accurate as of the publication date but is subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers should consult with a qualified financial advisor to assess their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions.

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Related Articles

This article explores how financial headlines influence investor behavior, often exacerbating emotional decision-making and undermining long-term investment outcomes. Drawing from behavioral finance research and investor psychology, the article argues that investors should adhere to a written investment plan rather than respond impulsively in the face of uncertainty and sensational news. Selected headlines from Bloomberg and CNBC illustrate the impact of the modern media environment on perception and behavior. The insights of Peter Lynch, Jack Bogle, and Warren Buffett are used to contextualize the long-standing wisdom of patience and discipline in investing.

The rise of financial anxiety

Today’s investors are inundated with a 24/7 news cycle that thrives on urgency. While access to information has never been easier, clarity has never been harder to maintain. Financial headlines are designed to capture attention, often through alarming or emotionally charged language. This reality presents a challenge for investors: distinguishing between signal and noise and avoiding making decisions rooted in emotion rather than logic or planning.

The emotional power of headlines

A review of today’s (4/24/25) major financial media illustrates the challenge. From CNBC, headlines such as:

Bridgewater hedge fund warns Trump policies could induce a recession
The S&P 500 formed an ominous ‘death cross.’ What history says happens next

frame the economic outlook in dramatic, even catastrophic terms. Similarly, Bloomberg ran with:

Odd Lots: Why the Real Tariff Pain Hasn’t Even Begun
One of Wall Street’s Biggest Bulls Slashes View as Tariffs Bite

Despite these headlines, the S&P 500 rose nearly 2% today, and tech stocks surged on strong earnings reports. This disconnect between the emotional tone of news coverage and actual market behavior is a classic example of availability bias—a cognitive distortion where individuals give undue weight to recent, vivid, or emotionally charged information (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973).

This behavioral response, driven by the availability of alarming headlines, often leads investors to abandon sound strategies in favor of reactive decisions. Yet history and experience warn us against this trap. As the following insights from some of the most respected minds in investing make clear, enduring success comes not from responding to noise but from adhering to a disciplined, long-term approach.

Wisdom from the investment greats

The dangers of reactionary investing are not new. Legendary investor Peter Lynch warned:

“Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than lost in the corrections themselves.”

Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, put it more bluntly:

“The idea that a bell rings to signal when to get into or out of the stock market is simply not credible.”

And Warren Buffett offered perhaps the most elegant summation:

“The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.”

These insights underscore the importance of focusing not on media narratives but on long-term goals and rational portfolio construction.

Recognizing the wisdom of these investment luminaries is a critical first step—but applying it consistently requires more than agreement; it requires structure. Investors need more than memorable quotes to overcome the behavioral impulses triggered by market volatility.

They need a written financial plan that serves as a behavioral compass, grounding decisions in clearly defined goals, timelines, and risk tolerance. Translating timeless investment principles into practical, repeatable actions makes the financial plan a vital tool for staying the course when emotions run high.

The role of a written financial plan

The antidote to reactionary behavior is a well-crafted financial plan that clearly articulates an investor’s purpose, time horizon, risk tolerance, and rebalancing strategy. Far from being a static worksheet, the plan functions as a behavioral anchor, offering clarity during periods of uncertainty and helping investors resist the temptation to respond emotionally to sensational headlines.

A thoughtfully structured financial plan does more than outline investment choices and target allocations. It proactively defines how to respond to market volatility, eliminating guesswork when clarity is most needed. Doing so transforms abstract wisdom into actionable discipline—bridging the gap between intention and execution.

Planning over panic

In a media landscape dominated by noise, fear, and speculation, the most effective investor response is not reaction—but preparation. Rather than chase headlines, successful investors rely on a carefully constructed financial plan and the discipline to follow it. Behavioral economics and decades of market data affirm that patience, consistency, and structure drive long-term success.

So, when the next wave of headlines warns of crisis or collapse, the wise investor doesn’t panic. They return to the plan—and stay the course.

For more information about our financial planning services, please call (503) 905-3100 or contact us.

References:

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131.

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A BOOK FOR THE SAVER IN ALL OF US

Becoming a 401(k) Millionaire isn’t your typical retirement guide. With 30 years in finance, Dr. Peter Fisher shares personal insights and real stories to help you plan with confidence.

Learn more

Disclosures: These market returns are based on past performance of an index for illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investing involves risk, including the loss of principal.  Index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of an actual investment. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The information provided in this communication is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Market conditions can change at any time, and there is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful.

Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in declining markets. Asset allocation and portfolio strategies do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

The opinions expressed in this communication reflect our best judgment at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Any references to specific securities, asset classes, or financial strategies are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations.

Human Investing is a SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement by the Comission. Please consult with your financial advisor to determine the appropriateness of any investment strategy based on your individual circumstances.

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Volatile markets test more than portfolios—they test patience. It’s easy to feel unsettled when headlines scream, and market volatility ensues. But the most important thing you can do as an investor is also the simplest: don’t let emotions get the best of you. 

In my nearly 30 years of advising clients, I’ve seen over and over again: the clients who succeed are the ones who manage their emotions, not just their money. The smartest thing you can do right now is stay calm and stay the course. The plan is working—even when it doesn’t feel like it. My experience has been that history has a way of rewarding those who stay calm, stay invested, and stay focused on their well-crafted financial plan.

At Human Investing, we believe that behavior, not timing or speculation, is what separates long-term success from short-term regret. For clients who have been with us for over 20 years, you’ve seen firsthand how a steady, disciplined approach can weather storms and grow wealth through them. For those new to our firm, please know that trust is the foundation of everything we do. We don’t just manage portfolios, we help guide people through uncertainty with clarity, care, and confidence.

To better understand the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment approach, it is helpful to examine five common psychological biases that often lead investors to deviate from sound decision-making. Drawing on both empirical research and professional experience, this section explores how emotional responses can override strategic thinking—particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty and market volatility—and outlines methods used to help clients remain focused on long-term objectives.

1. Loss aversion: When pain is louder than logic 

Researchers Kahneman, Knetsch, and Thaler (1991) discuss the psychological factors that drive loss aversion. Loss aversion is not just an investing concept; it’s a fundamental part of human psychology. Research shows that losses are felt about twice as painful as equivalent gains are perceived as pleasurable. In the brain, a $100 loss doesn’t just “sting”—it screams. And when markets drop, that emotional volume can drown out logic, strategy, and even years of sound advice.

This isn’t just a theory. I've seen it firsthand for a few decades—watching clients grapple with fear during the dotcom bust, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 COVID crash, and more recent volatility. In each case, the market eventually recovered. But those who let fear dictate their choices often miss the recovery, lock in their losses, and derail their long-term plans.

Here’s what makes loss aversion so dangerous: it feels rational. When the market drops 20%, the brain doesn’t think, “This is temporary.” It thinks, “Get out before it gets worse.” That impulse can feel like wisdom. But in reality, it's a trap.

The dislocation occurs when investors stop viewing a dip as part of the journey and begin to see it as the destination. Their long-term goals fade from view. The carefully designed plan becomes irrelevant. All that matters is stopping the pain.

But that short-term relief often comes at a prohibitive cost. Investors who sell at the bottom lock in their losses and are frequently too emotionally exhausted—or too afraid—to re-enter the market in time for the rebound. And rebound it almost always does. History shows that the market has consistently rewarded those who stay invested through downturns, not those who try to time their exits and re-entries.

2. Herding: When “everyone’s doing it” feels safer than thinking 

There’s a reason why stampedes are dangerous—not everyone in the crowd is running toward opportunity. Some are running from fear. 

In investing, we refer to this behavior as herding—the instinct to follow the crowd, particularly during times of uncertainty. Scharfstein and Stein (1990) were among the earliest to formally investigate and publish on the concept of herd mentality. We are indeed social creatures, hardwired to look to others for cues when we’re unsure. But in the markets, that instinct can be costly.

When prices drop and headlines grow loud, it’s natural to wonder: “What does everyone else know that I don’t?” You see friends moving to cash, analysts shouting about doom, and articles predicting disaster. The pull to join the herd becomes magnetic. But the crowd is often most unified at the wrong time, buying high out of excitement or selling low out of fear.

Here’s the cognitive dislocation: when fear spreads, we confuse consensus with correctness. If enough people are panicking, their emotion starts to feel like evidence. But markets are not democratic. The loudest voices are not always the wisest, and just because many are moving in the same direction doesn’t mean it’s the right one.

3. Recency bias: When yesterday becomes forever 

Tversky and Kahneman (1974) laid the foundational research on recency bias. They determine that “…the impact of seeing a house burning on the subjective probability of such accidents is probably greater than reading about a fire in the local paper. Furthermore, recent occurrences are likely to be relatively more available than earlier occurrences (p. 1127).” 

Put differently, individuals often extrapolate recent market movements into the future, believing that a market decline will persist or that a rally will continue indefinitely. This cognitive distortion, known as recency bias, reflects the tendency to overweight recent experiences when forming expectations about future outcomes.

It’s a mental shortcut that makes sense on the surface. After all, if it’s been raining for three days, we naturally reach for an umbrella on day four. But in the markets, this shortcut becomes a trap.

The dislocation happens when investors confuse a recent event with a long-term trend. They think: “The market’s been down the last two months—maybe this time is different. Maybe it won’t recover.” Or: “Tech has been hot all year—maybe it always will be.” This kind of thinking leads to chasing what has already happened or fleeing from what is already priced in.

Here’s the problem: the market doesn’t move in straight lines. It zigs, zags, and surprises. The best days often follow the worst. Yet, when recency bias takes hold, investors tend to anchor on the latest data point and overlook the broader context.

I’ve witnessed this bias unfold in every major market event since 1996. This ‘cognitive dislocation’ was particularly acute during the downturn from 2000 to 2002, when markets declined by 10%, 10%, and then 20%. But those who were paralyzed by recency bias—those who assumed the storm would never end—missed the sunshine that followed.

4. Sentiment: When moods masquerade as markets

The market is often described as a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term (Graham, 2006). That’s another way of saying: in the short term, emotion can drive price more than value. And that emotion, called market sentiment, can be just as contagious and unpredictable as the weather.

Sentiment isn’t about fundamentals. It’s about how investors feel about the future. When people feel optimistic, they see opportunity in every dip. When they feel anxious, even the strongest companies look shaky. This is where the dislocation happens: investors begin to substitute their mood for actual analysis.

In times of high sentiment, people often buy more than they should, take on more risk than they realize, or ignore warning signs. During low sentiment, they often underinvest, sell too soon, or abandon long-term strategies altogether—not because the plan changed, but because their feelings did.

I’ve witnessed this in action many times since 1996, particularly in 2008, when panic dominated sentiment, and many investors fled the market near the bottom. The truth is, markets don’t care how we feel. But our feelings often shape how we interpret the market. That’s why at Human Investing, we spend as much time helping clients manage their emotions as we do managing their investments. We help you separate how you feel from what’s actually happening.

Your plan is designed to withstand emotional swings. It assumes there will be times when the market is overconfident, and times when it’s too afraid. That’s why we don’t react to moods. We respond to goals. Because when you confuse sentiment for truth, your portfolio becomes a mirror of your emotions. But when you trust your plan, your portfolio becomes a reflection of your purpose.

5. Emotional echo chambers: When biases team up to derail you

If loss aversion, herding, recency bias, and sentiment were minor on their own, we might be able to brush them off. But they don’t stay in their lanes. These biases often compound, amplifying each other until an investor is no longer thinking clearly. That’s what we call an emotional echo chamber—a space where your own fears are repeated and reinforced until they sound like facts.

Here’s how it plays out:

• The market dips, triggering loss aversion—“I can’t afford to lose more.”

• You see others selling, which activates herding—“Everyone’s getting out. Maybe I should, too.”

• You assume the recent downturn is the new normal—recency bias—“It’s just going to get worse.”

• Your confidence drops, and negative sentiment clouds your judgment—“I don’t feel safe, so maybe I’m not.” 

Suddenly, your investment decisions are no longer tied to your long-term goals—a chorus of emotional responses drives them, each one echoing the others. This is the moment investors often make their biggest mistakes: abandoning well-designed plans, selling at market lows, or shifting strategies midstream out of fear.

I’ve seen this cycle emerge during every major downturn. What I’ve learned is this: when fear gets loud, clarity gets quiet. Investors don’t just lose money in these moments—they lose confidence, perspective, and peace of mind.

At Human Investing, our job is to help you break out of that echo chamber. We’re here to re-center you when everything feels off-balance, to remind you of the purpose of your financial plan, and to bring you back to your long-term vision when the short-term noise becomes deafening.

We believe that staying invested is not just a financial decision, it’s an emotional discipline. That’s why we design portfolios that align with your comfort zone and why we lead with planning. Because a sound financial plan doesn’t just grow your wealth, it protects your thinking.

When emotional noise is high, we help you find quiet confidence. When biases clash in your head, we help you hear your goals again. And most importantly, when you start to feel like you’re the only one holding steady, we’re here to remind you—you’re not.

Empirical evidence

If the five behavioral prompts are not enough to encourage you to focus on your plan, a 40-year perspective on market ups and downs can provide an essential viewpoint. 

Please see Figure 1 at the end of this document. In it, you’ll see the average intra-year drop for the S&P 500 is approximately 14%, based on historical data going back several decades.

This means that in a typical year, the market will experience a peak-to-trough decline of around 14%—even in years that end up positive overall.

Here’s a quick breakdown:

From 1980 through 2023, the S&P 500 had: 

• Positive returns in about 75% of those years

• But it still experienced an average intra-year decline of ~14%

Why it matters:

Many investors panic during temporary drops, thinking something abnormal is happening. In reality, a 10–15% drop in a given year is a feature, not a flaw, of long-term investing. It’s part of the process, not a sign to change course.

References:

Graham, B. (2006). The intelligent investor: The definitive book on value investing (Rev. ed., J. Zweig, Commentary). Harper-Business. (Original work published 1949)

Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. L., & Thaler, R. H. (1991). Anomalies: The endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias. Journal of Economic perspectives, 5(1), 193-206.

Scharfstein, D. S., & Stein, J. C. (1990). Herd behavior and investment. The American economic review, 465-479.

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases: Biases in judgments reveal some heuristics of thinking under uncertainty. science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.

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Disclosures: These market returns are based on past performance of an index for illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investing involves risk, including the loss of principal.  Index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect the performance of an actual investment. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The information provided in this communication is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Market conditions can change at any time, and there is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful.

Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in declining markets. Asset allocation and portfolio strategies do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

The opinions expressed in this communication reflect our best judgment at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Any references to specific securities, asset classes, or financial strategies are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations.

Human Investing is a SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement by the Comission. Please consult with your financial advisor to determine the appropriateness of any investment strategy based on your individual circumstances.

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A BOOK FOR THE SAVER IN ALL OF US

Becoming a 401(k) Millionaire isn’t your typical retirement guide. With 30 years in finance, Dr. Peter Fisher shares personal insights and real stories to help you plan with confidence.

Learn more

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An Analysis of Investment Advisor Representatives and Bureau of Labor Statistics Data: Determining the Percentage of Financial Advisors Acting as “True Fiduciaries”

In the financial services industry, the concept of acting as a fiduciary—putting the client’s best interests ahead of all else—has become a litmus test for ethical practice. However, determining how many financial professionals truly operate under a fee-only fiduciary model reveals a significant gap between perception and reality.

Industry Snapshot: Financial Professionals in the U.S.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (2023), the financial services landscape in the United States includes:

• 513,000 financial services sales agents, encompassing roles such as stockbrokers and commodities traders.

• 321,000 personal financial advisors, offering financial planning and investment guidance to individuals.

Together, these figures total 834,000 professionals engaged in roles that directly or indirectly affect individuals' financial outcomes.

Investment Advisor Representatives: A Subset

Among these professionals, 77,468 individuals are registered as Investment Advisor Representatives (IARs), according to the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA, 2022). IARs are often seen as closer to the fiduciary standard due to their regulatory obligations. However, even within this group, a significant portion still earns commissions.

• A recent analysis by Welsh (2024) indicates that 47% of IARs receive commissions, leaving only 53% as truly fee-only fiduciaries.

• Applying this percentage, the total number of fee-only IARs is approximately 41,958 individuals.

The True Percentage of Fee-Only Fiduciaries

To contextualize this figure, let’s consider the broader pool of financial professionals (advisors and brokers). Dividing the number of fee-only IARs (41,958) by the total number of financial professionals (834,800) yields a striking conclusion:

Only 4.92% of financial professionals operate as fee-only fiduciaries.

This percentage has seen growth from an estimated 2% in 2018 (Mantell, 2018), reflecting progress but also underscoring the rarity of this practice in an industry dominated by commission-based models.

References:

Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2023). Occupational Outlook Handbook. U.S. Department of Labor: Securities, Commodities, and Financial Services Sales Agents.

Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2023). Occupational Outlook Handbook. U.S. Department of Labor: Personal Financial Advisors.

Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. (2022). 2022 FINRA industry snapshot. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

Mantell, R. (2018, March 19). Is it time to adopt a uniform fee-only standard for financial advice? The Wall Street Journal.

Welsh, J. (2024, October 31). What role do commissions now play for advisors? Investment News.

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On Wednesday, August 24th, President Biden announced his administration’s Student Loan Debt Plan. This news may bring up questions for you, and we are here to answer them.

Here are the Details you Need:

Who qualifies for loan forgiveness?

• Federal student loan borrowers who earn less than $125,000 per year or married couples who make less than $250,000 per year on their 2020 or 2021 tax return.

• Private and Federal loans taken after June 30th, 2022, are not eligible.

How much will be forgiven?

• $10,000 of student loan debt is canceled for all federal student loan borrowers. 

• An additional $10,000 ($20,000 total) of student loan debt is canceled for those who received Pell grants. 

How can you ensure you receive forgiveness if you qualify?

Borrowers who are already on income-driven repayment plans will automatically receive forgiveness. The Department of Education will make an application available during the month of October. Due to high-volume traffic, the application and income verification process will likely take time.

Borrowers can sign up for updates from the US Department of Education to be notified when the application becomes available by clicking here.  

Other key dates to remember:

• November 15th The deadline to apply to receive debt cancellation by the time the payment pause expires at the end of the year. Your application must be submitted by November 15th.

• January 1, 2023: If you didn’t receive total forgiveness, payments will start back up and interest will begin accruing on the balance on January 1, 2023.

• December 31, 2023: The final deadline to apply for student loan forgiveness.

Forbearance extension

Biden also extended the pandemic student loan forbearance that was set to expire on August 31st to the end of the year. This will benefit those who won’t qualify for forgiveness and those who will still have a balance remaining after forgiveness.

Proposed change of repayment based on income: Those with undergraduate loans who are on income-driven payment plans, may be able to cap repayment at 5% of their monthly income. This is half of the current rate most borrowers pay now.

How does this affect Your current financial situation? 

This news will likely create further questions regarding your specific financial landscape. Here are a few examples of how this change is applied to everyday people:  

MARIA, AGE 25

Maria graduated in 2019 with $25,000 in student loan debt and currently makes $44,000 per year. One of the loans she received was a Pell Grant. According to Biden’s plan, Maria will only have $5,000 left to repay starting in January 2023.

ANDREW & MONICA, AGE 43

Andrew and Monica are a married couple. Together, they carry $40,000 in student loan debt and make a combined income of $260,000 per year. Due to their income, they are ineligible to receive student loan debt forgiveness and will need to resume their repayments starting in January 2023.  

SEAN, AGE 35

Sean graduated in 2017 with $8,000 in student loan debt and currently makes $75,000 per year. All of Sean’s student loans are canceled, with no repayments resuming in January 2023.

How Should You Adjust Your Financial Plan?

However you are receiving this news, you should use this opportunity to assess your finances and take action to get closer to your long-term goals. Here are a few tips:  

If your student loan debt has been altogether canceled:  

• Take some time to reassess your spending and saving habits – create a budget.  

• Bolster your emergency savings fund: Make sure you have 3-6 months of expenses saved.

• Use the extra cash to pay off any consumer debt.

• If you have no consumer debt and have extra cash, consider redirecting those repayments to funding a Roth IRA. (Up to $6,000, or $7,000 if you are aged 50+).

• Reconsider short-term and long-term goals.

If your student loan debt repayments are resuming in January 2023:

• Edit your budget to include these payments.

• Consider restarting your monthly payment schedule. This will save you money in accrued interest by paying down the principal during the payment pause.

As always, our team at Human Investing is here to help should you have any further questions. If you would like to talk with an advisor, call 503-905-3100.

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Home prices and home equity have increased substantially over the last few years, which may leave you wondering if you should sell your home. Wouldn’t selling your home be even more tempting if buying another home wasn’t so difficult?

If you are thinking about selling a home, then you are probably focused on market timing, payments, moving and lifestyle changes. One thing you may have overlooked are the tax considerations of selling a home.

You may be thinking, “wait, isn’t the sale of my main home tax free?”  

It depends.

Primary homes are considered capital assets, like investments such as stocks and bonds. Capital assets are normally subject to capital gains taxes when they are sold. However, primary homes may qualify for a favorable capital gains treatment called the Section 121 exclusion.

For most homeowners, the Section 121 exclusion is one of the greatest benefits of the current tax code. Are you aware of how this exclusion works and how to ensure you qualify?

Start With your Capital Gains

Before making the decision to sell your home, start by calculating your capital gains. A gain on the sale of a primary residence is calculated as such:

Sale price - (Purchase price + Improvements) = Capital Gain

Breaking Down the Section 121 Capital Gain Exclusion and its Qualifications

The 2-out-of-5 year capital gain exemption is crucial for homeowners to understand.

The IRS allows homeowners to exclude part of your home sale from capital gain taxes if you’ve owned your home and lived in it as your primary residence for two of the past five years. The 24 months do not have to be consecutive months, but rather a total of 24 months within a 5-year period. If you qualify for the 2-out-of-5 year rule, then you have the following gain exclusion when selling your home:

The profit mentioned above does not include outstanding mortgage. If there is an outstanding mortgage on the home, this will not impact the Section 121 capital gain exclusion amount. Please read example #1 below to see how mortgages do not impact the overall capital gain.

Partial Gain Exclusions and Benefit Timing

Even if you haven’t lived in your home two out of five of the years prior to selling the home, there may be a way to qualify for a partial gain exclusion. For example, you could be eligible for a partial gain exclusion if you had to move due to work-related reasons, health-related reasons, or for unforeseen circumstances such as divorce or giving birth to two or more children from the same pregnancy.

Homeowners can benefit from this Section 121 capital gain exclusion once every two years. For example, if you have two homes and lived in both for at least two of the past 5 years, both homes are not eligible for the capital gains exclusion at the same time.

Four Examples of the Section 121 exclusion

EXAMPLE #1: SINGLE-FILING TAXPAYER

Jordan purchased a home in 2016 for $350,000 and sold it in 2022 for $560,000.

Jordan lived in her home for these 6 consecutive years. When she listed her home for sale, Jordan still had an outstanding mortgage of $75,000 on her home. As mentioned above, mortgages are not part of calculating the total Section 121 gain exclusion. Jordan has a total gain of $210,000 ($560,000 sale price - $350,000 purchase price). For a single taxpayer, none of this gain is subject to taxes because it is less than the exclusion amount of $250,000. Time for Jordan to enjoy her celebration of choice.

EXAMPLE #2: COUPLE FILING TAXES JOINTLY

Marta and Paul purchased a home in 1999 for $350,000 and sold it in 2022 for $1,000,000.

Marta and Paul raised their children in this home for the past 23 years, except for in 2006 when they rented their home for a sabbatical year. The total gain on the sale of the home is $650,000. They will only pay capital gains on $150,000, since $500,000 is subject to the Section 121 gain exclusion.

EXAMPLE #3: VACATION HOME TURNED TO A PRIMARY RESIDENCE

Samuel and Taylor bought a vacation home on the coast in 2010 for $300,000. They used the home as a vacation home for the first 10 years, and then converted it to their primary residence in 2020. Samuel and Taylor would like to sell their home at some point in 2022 for $500,000.

The first 10 years of ownership are considered non-qualified use. Non-qualified use is any period after 2008 when the home was not used as a primary residence. Examples of non-qualified use are vacation homes, rental properties, investment properties, or homes used in a trade of business. Homeowners cannot take the full tax-free exclusion under Section 121 if a property was held and used for non-qualified use prior to it being held as a primary residence (qualified use).

In this example, 2/12ths of the total $200,000 of capital gain can be excluded from taxable income ($33,333) as qualified under Section 121 and 10/12ths ($167,666) of the total capital gain must be included in taxable income as non-qualified use under Section 121.

*There are some exceptions to non-qualified use. They are listed under the Business or Rental Use of Home section.

EXAMPLE #4: HOMEOWNERS TURNED TO LANDLORDS

Miguel and Jasmine purchased their primary home in 2012 for $500,000. They moved out of the home and started renting it in 2020. They sold their home for $1,000,000 in 2022.

Since they wanted to utilize the Section 121 gain exclusion, they had to sell the home in 2022. To articulate the importance this sale timing, here is a detailed timeline:

2018 – home used as their primary home

2019 – home used as their primary home

2020 – home used as a rental home

2021 – home used as a rental home

2022 – home used as a rental home for most of the year and sold for $1,000,000 on May 15, 2022

Since they sold this home during 2022, which meets the 2-out-of-5 year exclusion rule, they can utilize the full tax-free exclusion on the $500,000 gain. ** They may owe tax on the depreciation recapture.

However, if they waited to sell their home until 2023, Miguel and Jasmine would pay capital gains tax on the entire $500,000 gain since they wouldn’t have qualified for the 2-out-of-5 year exclusion rule in this case. As this example illustrates, being mindful of your timeline for selling a home is critical.

Tax Planning for your Home(s) IS CRUCIAL IN MAXIMIZING WHAT YOU CAN POCKET

As you may have gathered from this blog post, buying and selling homes may involve complicated tax planning. Given the prolonged seller’s market, our team has worked on several tax planning scenarios and strategies for different clients. If you would like to speak to us about your own unique scenario, please reach out to us at hi@humaninvesting.com or 503-905-3100.

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In a recent interview Jason Zweig, a personal finance columnist for the WSJ, had a quote that resonated with me.   

  "Emotional discipline is the single hardest thing about the investment game."   

After accumulating over 30 years of writing and thinking about investing and personal finance, Jason points to emotion (not market valuations, stock picking, or market corrections) as the most difficult part of investing.  As financial advisors, we witness the struggle of emotional discipline firsthand. Recent news (and noise) around tech stocks, housing prices, federal spending, cryptocurrencies, inflation, and interest rates have made it more difficult for investors to maintain this discipline.  

are you an investor facing FOMO or FOBI?  

This lack of emotional discipline manifests itself typically in one of two ways:   

1. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) in the market. If you are 15 years old, FOMO is seeing your friends doing something without you on social media. If you are an investor, FOMO is the internal dialogue of “I see my neighbor making money on ____, I need to buy ___.” Someone who has FOMO tends to follow the crowds. FOMO can lead an investor to think their rate of return is a benchmark for their success rather than achieving a return needed for a successful financial plan.

2. Fear of Being In (FOBI) the market. FOBI is the internal dialogue of “I have seen how this story ends. I need to sell ____.” Someone who has FOBI likely listens to news sources who make a profit off pessimistic news. Note: It is easy to push the sell button, it is always harder to get back in.  

FOMO and FOBI may seem different, however, both are ultimately trying to guess where the market will go next and are speculative in nature. Let 2020 be a great reminder that it’s difficult to predict how the market or a particular investment will do year to year.  

Periodic Table of Investment Returns from the last 20 years

One of my favorite charts to illustrate the difficulty to predict short-term performance is "The Periodic Table of Investment Returns". This graph ranks the annual returns of popular asset classes from best to worst over the last 20 years.   

Source: Blackrock; Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The information provided is for illustrative purposes and is not meant to represent the performance of any particular investment. Assumes reinvestment of all distributions. It is not possible to directly invest in an index. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.

An investor experiencing FOMO is likely paying attention to the top row, the best-returning asset classes over the last 20 years. This investor is likely trying to guess what will be the highest performing asset class in the coming year.  

Meanwhile, an investor experiencing FOBI is likely paying closer attention to the bottom rows, with a specific focus on larger market selloffs like 2001, 2002, and 2008. A FOBI investor is worried about being invested in the wrong asset class and will try to avoid the worst-performing asset class in the coming year.  

The Periodic Table of Investment Returns reminds me of three investing truths:   

1. It can be dangerous to try and guess what is next. Consider US small-cap stocks (Sm Cap – in light green), which had the highest average annual return over the 20 years. While small-cap stocks were the best performer they also showed the widest variance in outcomes. Guessing right in 2003 would have provided a positive return of 47.3%. Guessing wrong in 2008 would have provided a negative return of 33.8%. 

2. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Making investment decisions based on recent performance (e.g., looking at 1, 3, and 5-year returns) can be detrimental to an investment portfolio.  International’s performance as a prime example (Int’l – in yellow), over the five years from 2003-2007 international was the best performing asset class by a long shot. International seemed like the sure thing. Unfortunately, the investors who followed international’s high returns were greeted with a brutal 43% selloff in 2008.   

3. Portfolio diversification is the answer to combating FOMO and FOBI – See “Div portfolio” in purple along the middle rows.  Diversification is an investment strategy that aims to maximize a level of return for the risk desired. Diversification accomplishes this by strategically spreading money across different types of investments.   

 A diversified portfolio helps investors maintain emotional discipline. Diversification can avoid the fear of missing out on the next hot investment. Owning more of the market will naturally provide more opportunities to not miss out on the growth of specific sectors or individual investments. Diversification can also temper being fearful of being in the market and owning the next big loser. Diversification disperses your dollars across many asset classes, which means if one company is a dud it will not sink the ship.  

If you struggle with emotional discipline when investing, congratulations you are a human. If helpful, please use The Periodic Table of Investment Returns as a great reminder that emotional discipline is difficult. Putting a plan in place along with proper diversification can help investors make smart long-term decisions.

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The term speculation[1] has been on the steady decline since 1840. The decline in use is somewhat surprising given the current market environment where speculation runs rampant. In recent weeks, our team inked a well-thought-out article about the speculation du jour titled, The Big Short: Volume II Starring $GME . Interestingly, they could have been writing about any of the past's speculations—like the Dutch Tulipmania in the 1630s and the roaring 20s that ran up to the 1929 crash. More recently, tech stock speculation reached a fevered pitch in the 2000s and was followed by an equally thrilling run-up in housing which peaked in Q1 2007.

“Speculation is easy to spot, but it is difficult to understand what brings speculative environments to an end.”

Memory Lane (1995-2000)

Speculation in technology stocks lasted for six years. Money managers and even the Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan noted the overall frothiness of the markets. In his 1996 public address, Chairman Greenspan pondered, "but how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values…?" From 1995 to 2000, the Nasdaq grew sixfold (see Figure 1 below). Over several years, beginning in March of 2000, the tech-heavy Nasdaq stock index lost nearly 80% of its value. Even the "blue chip" tech stocks of the day: Cisco, Intel, and Oracle, fell fast. But because they had well established and viable business', they crawled from the rubble and thrived. But the road to recovery took 15 years as the Nasdaq crossed through its previous market peak set in March of 2000 in April of 2015.

Figure 1

Reason for the speculation?

As was the case leading up to the peak of the .com era, much of today's speculation has been brought about by venture capital (VC) investment. Key statistics surrounding VC investment are at or near all-time highs. This includes deal activity, VC-backed IPO's, and VC-backed M & A. You can learn more about VCs and speculation here. The influence of M & A on the market dynamics is meaningful—particularly for retail investors who see what VCs are doing and want a piece of the action. In the book, The Psychology of Money, the author notes that "people have a tendency to be influenced by the actions of other people who are playing a different financial game than they are." VC investors are some of the most sophisticated investors in the world.  Simply put, VC investors are playing a different financial game than most people who want to get a piece of their action.

One reason for concern is that a mass of money is being put into the capital markets, including VCs, with a speculative bent. This changes the market's disposition. The stock market can quickly turn from a place to save for retirement and invest for college to a casino or dog track, where a quick buck can be made. The bottom line is that investing and speculating are not the same thing. In the last 25 years, the most successful investors I have observed have relied on simple truths to accumulate their wealth. They make their money by saving and investing over a lifetime. To be sure, some speculators hit it big, and those will be the stories you hear about. Others, as is the case with most speculative investments, will lose everything.

Access, Gamification, and Human Nature

This go-around, the rise of speculative investing seems to have a social appeal. With stock trading commissions at zero and gamified investment platforms, both access and the fun factor are present at levels I've never seen before. On the one hand, I'm thrilled that more people are interested in the capital markets. But I wonder if tools and access make investing more like a casino or betting app than serious investors' tools to achieve lifelong financial goals. If investing is being marketed to fulfill all your dreams in a couple of keystrokes, why wait a lifetime?

It is human nature to want a piece of what is working—after all, who wouldn't?  We all know someone who made their money quickly. For every person who made an easy buck and won the lottery, millions of us are going to need to do it the hard way. Yes, the wet blanket approach to investing—like spending less than what you earn and putting a little away each month to an emergency fund. Forgoing a slice of your paycheck today so that you have something to live off when you are no longer generating an income from your labor. Driving the same old car so the payments you would otherwise have with a new car can go to your child's college savings account. I know what some of you may be saying, "he just doesn't get it." Maybe not, but what is true is that if investors do not choose a path, it will be selected for them. Or if not, they may bounce around from one path to another, making for a very emotional and disjointed investing experience. One path has a high probability of success because it relies on disciplined saving and investing behavior over a lifetime. The other approach is speculative, looks fun, is incredible to talk about, and has social equity—but unfortunately has a fractional probability of success.

Tesla and bubbles

There are plenty of speculative investments that will make an article like this seem out of touch and tired. Maybe so. Take the electric car manufacturer who recently booked its first full year of profits. Yep, the investor and media darling Tesla is worth $800 billion and just turned a profit in 2020 for the first time since it was founded in 2003. The only issue is that it is not from selling cars. The bulk of their profit comes from selling regulatory tax credits, not from selling cars. Read more about Tesla here. This is fine, and I own a few Tesla shares inside my low-cost Vanguard S&P 500 index fund. The point in sharing a story about Tesla is not to shame those that own the stock, nor is it a knock on the product as they make a good car. Instead, it highlights the influence of VC money and corresponding expectation for speculative investing and returns.

Dr. Olivier Blanchard, the most cited economist in the world, penned a 1979 masterpiece where he said this,

"Self-ending speculative bubbles, i.e., speculative bubbles followed by market crashes, are consistent with the assumptions of rational expectations. More generally, speculative bubbles may take all kinds of shapes. Detecting their presence or rejecting their existence is likely to prove very hard."

If speculation were a person, I would write it a letter. It would be short. It would go like this, "As for our families and how we advise Human Investing clients, we view each dollar as hard earned and essential to a well thought out financial plan. There is no play money or money we can afford to lose. As such, we are not much for speculation." Sincerely, your wet blanket.

[1] Merriam-Webster defines speculation as “a risky undertaking.” Thesaurus notes it is a “theory, guess, risk, or gamble.”

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A fiduciary is defined as an individual or a legal entity, such as a financial advisor. The fiduciary takes on the responsibility and has the power to act in the interest of another. This other person is called a beneficiary or principal—we call them member, human, or client.

A fiduciary financial advisor (which is all we have at Human Investing) cannot sell products that charge or pay commissions.

When a member works with a Human Investing financial advisor, the client gives the advisor their trust and expects recommendations to be made with honesty and good faith in keeping with their best interests. This may not always be the case with a non-fiduciary advisor.

The Fiduciary Standard

All Human Investing employees are required to abide by the fiduciary standard. When a financial advisor has a fiduciary duty, they must always act in the beneficiary's best interest.

Financial advisors fall into two buckets: fiduciaries and non-fiduciaries. Surprisingly, not all financial advisors have a requirement to put member's interests first. Worse yet, some advisors and their firms can be dually registered, swapping back and forth between fiduciary and non-fiduciary roles.

Suitability Standard vs. Fiduciary Standard

Financial professionals who are not fiduciaries are held to a lesser standard known as the "suitability standard." What this means is that the recommendation from a non-fiduciary only needs to be adequate.

Other Watch Outs When selecting an Advisor

If an advisor states that they have FINRA Series 7, 6, or 63, that means they are licensed to sell products for commissions. An advisor would only have those licenses for two reasons: 1) to sell commission products or 2) collect commissions from products they (or someone else) have sold.

There are many individuals and firms that say they are financial planners and do financial planning. But did you know that many of the people that say they are financial planners are not trained in the process and profession of being a financial planner? Individuals responsible for member financial planning are CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERS™. A CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification is “the standard of excellence in financial planning. CFP® professionals meet rigorous education, training and ethical standards, and are committed to serving their clients' best interests today to prepare them for a more secure tomorrow.”

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