Starting From Square One (Or $20 in my bank account)

Picture this: You’ve just graduated college and received your first '“big-kid” job. You have about $20 in your name. Although it is a new concept, with a new job comes new responsibility, and you decide you should probably be more mindful about your spending (and saving) habits. But how do you start?

I had the unique privilege of beginning my career at Human Investing shortly after I graduated. As you can imagine, working at a financial advisory firm meant that before I started contributing to the company’s 401(k) plan, I was given a beginner’s course in investing.

AN ENDLESS MAZE OF DECISIONS

Like many people who join corporate America, I opted into its retirement plan because it was a free benefit I received. I knew saving for retirement was important, and the investment options available to me would benefit my long-term financial plan.

When I received my first paycheck, I learned the importance of contributing to my 401(k), but in a way that was compatible with my cash flow.

A common rule of thumb is to contribute 10-15% of your gross salary to your retirement account if you can (this includes the employer contribution/match). After learning this, I was eager to invest 15% into my 401(k). However, I did not consider other key factors that made up a healthy and holistic financial plan, like funding an emergency savings account or considering other short-term goals (ex: continuing education or buying a home). Although I was so eager to contribute as much as I could to my retirement plan, I ended up contributing much less than expected after assessing my current financial situation.

Unpacking where to start

I share this story because, like most people new to the financial scene, I wanted to manage my money well, and I figured investing all of my excess income would equate to successful money management. What I didn’t do was take a step back and assess my entire financial landscape. Thankfully, Human Investing was there to provide some guidance. That’s why we made this visual. We call it “The Pyramid to Financial Wellness.” Use the visual as a map; start at the foundation and then work your way up. Before continuing, please know that we all have unique financial situations, and not every block may apply to your situation.

LEVEL 1: Build a Foundation

Build a Budget to understand your monthly cash flow: If you’re looking to invest dollars from your paycheck, you need to know how much bandwidth you have at the end of each month. If you don’t currently have any excess dollars, try to get creative. Look at your current spending habits and see if you need to minimize spending in a certain area. Don’t be afraid to rely on savings apps for help. We generally recommend Mint or Digit.

Pay off High-Interest Debt: Focus on higher interest, non-deductible loans first, such as credit card loans. Consider refinancing your loans or reconsolidating your debt to make payments more manageable.

Contribute to your Company-Sponsored Retirement Account: If applicable, contribute enough to receive the employer match. For example, if your employer matches up to 6% of your contribution, try to meet the 6% savings rate.

Build an emergency fund: If something unpredictable happens, make sure you’re prepared. Click here to learn how to build an emergency savings fund.

Level 2: Plant Long-term Seeds

Open a Retirement Account for future savings: Based on your age and tax bracket, start contributing to either an IRA or a Roth IRA. Click here to see if a Roth IRA account is the right account for you.

Continue paying down student loans: If student loan payments are on your horizon, don’t delay! Try to pay off what you can now. Consider refinancing your loans in order to make regular payments more manageable.

Save for a Home: If this is a goal of yours, start saving. Depending on your timeline, try to save in either a High Yield Savings Account (Short-term goal) or a Roth IRA (Longer-term goal).

Level 3: Hone your Monthly Budget

Open up a 529 account for a child or grandchild: If you are hoping or planning to fund your child’s college education, utilizing a 529 account can protect your purchasing power. The same rules that apply when flying apply here too. Put your mask on before taking care of others.

Pay down your mortgage: Target additional mortgage payments if you are able. Consider refinancing your mortgage to possibly find greater savings with lower interest rates.

Save for Short-term and Mid-term goals: Short-term goals include immediate expenses, paying down debt, having an emergency savings fund, etc. Mid-term goals are big purchases that you plan to make before you retire. This includes saving for a house or a car. Avoid borrowing and start planning to save. If you’ve exhausted other savings vehicles (like your 401K and Roth IRA), consider opening a brokerage account.

If you have any questions about how investing can fit into your financial plan, contact us! We are here for you and are excited to cheer you on as you learn to manage your money well.

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Are you fearful a recession might be around the corner?

There’s been a lot of chatter about the state of the economy and whether we’re in a recession, or if one’s already passed. Whatever the situation, we wanted to help put things into perspective and remind you of the things you can (and cannot) control if uncertainty is on the horizon.

The widespread definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of a decline in real GDP (Gross Domestic Product). However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." No matter which yardstick we use to measure a recession, here is what you need to know:

• Recessions are a natural part of the business cycle. There have been 34 recessions since 1857, ranging from more than five years to the pandemic-driven contraction of 2020 that lasted two months.

• Recessions do not necessarily coincide with a decrease in the stock markets.

• No two recessions are alike in cause, length, or intensity.

• Recessions are marked as a time of heavy uncertainty and an increase in job insecurity.

Planning for a recession is difficult.

Using the general definition, we won't know we are in a recession until six months after it starts. Rather than worrying about a recession (which is out of our control), investors should focus on things that they can control. When future economic uncertainties arise, here is a list of things that you can do to prepare yourself better:

1. Re-evaluate the size of your emergency fund.

The amount someone should keep on hand should correspond with their living expenses, income instability, stage of life, risk tolerance, etc. This amount is typically 3 to 12 months of living expenses. An unforeseen medical bill or a temporary lapse in employment can happen anytime. Arming yourself with a cash safety net is your first defense against debt or selling your investments during a market downturn. For more information, read our blog about understanding the role of cash in a financial plan.

2. Analyze your spending.

Watching how much you spend builds awareness of your current spending habits. Understanding essential vs. nonessential expenses will make it easier to navigate your budget if your income disappears. Bonus: a better understanding of your spending can help you spend less and thus help you save more.

3. Bolster your professional network and skills.

Prioritize efforts to develop strong long-term relationships with essential connections. You may also invest in yourself with job-related skills and by polishing your résumé to ensure you are prepared for an unanticipated lapse in your employment.

4. Assess your investment portfolio.

Recessions don't always coincide with a stock market selloff. However, ensuring your investments are aligned with your goals is essential. Before a downturn in the market is the best time to position your portfolio based on your risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals. If you are unsure of your investment strategy, get in touch with a financial advisor to ensure you have the formula for successful investing.

5. Review your insurance coverage.

Start with the basics. Review what you have vs. what you need.

• What kind do you have? Is your protection tied to your job?

• Do you have enough dollar-amount coverage?

• Do you need to adjust, more or less?

Remember the things you can and cannot control. Take your time to examine what you want to prioritize. While we can't predict precisely when a recession will occur, we can plan, prepare, and adjust appropriately to survive any economic storm. If you want to talk with one of our advisors, please call Jill at 503-905-3100.

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On Wednesday, August 24th, President Biden announced his administration’s Student Loan Debt Plan. This news may bring up questions for you, and we are here to answer them.

Here are the Details you Need:

Who qualifies for loan forgiveness?

• Federal student loan borrowers who earn less than $125,000 per year or married couples who make less than $250,000 per year on their 2020 or 2021 tax return.

• Private and Federal loans taken after June 30th, 2022, are not eligible.

How much will be forgiven?

• $10,000 of student loan debt is canceled for all federal student loan borrowers. 

• An additional $10,000 ($20,000 total) of student loan debt is canceled for those who received Pell grants. 

How can you ensure you receive forgiveness if you qualify?

Borrowers who are already on income-driven repayment plans will automatically receive forgiveness. The Department of Education will make an application available during the month of October. Due to high-volume traffic, the application and income verification process will likely take time.

Borrowers can sign up for updates from the US Department of Education to be notified when the application becomes available by clicking here.  

Other key dates to remember:

• November 15th The deadline to apply to receive debt cancellation by the time the payment pause expires at the end of the year. Your application must be submitted by November 15th.

• January 1, 2023: If you didn’t receive total forgiveness, payments will start back up and interest will begin accruing on the balance on January 1, 2023.

• December 31, 2023: The final deadline to apply for student loan forgiveness.

Forbearance extension

Biden also extended the pandemic student loan forbearance that was set to expire on August 31st to the end of the year. This will benefit those who won’t qualify for forgiveness and those who will still have a balance remaining after forgiveness.

Proposed change of repayment based on income: Those with undergraduate loans who are on income-driven payment plans, may be able to cap repayment at 5% of their monthly income. This is half of the current rate most borrowers pay now.

How does this affect Your current financial situation? 

This news will likely create further questions regarding your specific financial landscape. Here are a few examples of how this change is applied to everyday people:  

MARIA, AGE 25

Maria graduated in 2019 with $25,000 in student loan debt and currently makes $44,000 per year. One of the loans she received was a Pell Grant. According to Biden’s plan, Maria will only have $5,000 left to repay starting in January 2023.

ANDREW & MONICA, AGE 43

Andrew and Monica are a married couple. Together, they carry $40,000 in student loan debt and make a combined income of $260,000 per year. Due to their income, they are ineligible to receive student loan debt forgiveness and will need to resume their repayments starting in January 2023.  

SEAN, AGE 35

Sean graduated in 2017 with $8,000 in student loan debt and currently makes $75,000 per year. All of Sean’s student loans are canceled, with no repayments resuming in January 2023.

How Should You Adjust Your Financial Plan?

However you are receiving this news, you should use this opportunity to assess your finances and take action to get closer to your long-term goals. Here are a few tips:  

If your student loan debt has been altogether canceled:  

• Take some time to reassess your spending and saving habits – create a budget.  

• Bolster your emergency savings fund: Make sure you have 3-6 months of expenses saved.

• Use the extra cash to pay off any consumer debt.

• If you have no consumer debt and have extra cash, consider redirecting those repayments to funding a Roth IRA. (Up to $6,000, or $7,000 if you are aged 50+).

• Reconsider short-term and long-term goals.

If your student loan debt repayments are resuming in January 2023:

• Edit your budget to include these payments.

• Consider restarting your monthly payment schedule. This will save you money in accrued interest by paying down the principal during the payment pause.

As always, our team at Human Investing is here to help should you have any further questions. If you would like to talk with an advisor, call 503-905-3100.

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Due to the newly proposed legislation (Inflation Reduction Act), if you are in the market for a new electric vehicle, you may want to rush to the dealership today (August 11th)!  In the proposed legislation, Congress extended the electric vehicle credit but has added new restrictions which will make qualifying for the credit more difficult.

Here is a list of the new limitations proposed for Electric Vehicles delivered in 2023:

1. 40% of the Battery must have been made in a country in which the US has a free trade agreement.

2. MSRP must be under $55,000 for sedans and $80,000 for vans and SUV’s.

3. Modified Adjusted Gross Income must be less than $300,000 for married joint returns and $150,000 for others.

4. On a positive note, the $200,000 sales limitation that has kept Tesla and a few other manufacturers from qualifying for electric vehicle credit will be removed. So if you are thinking about getting one of these models, you may want to wait until next year to see if these manufacturers can meet the above qualifications.

To use the old credit, you must take delivery of the car in 2022 or have a binding contract to purchase before the bill is signed into law. The bill has already been approved by the Senate and will head to the House for a vote on Friday, August 12. 

Which cars are still eligible for the old credit?

If you want to act quickly, this link contains a list of cars that are still eligible for the old credit.  Please note that Tesla and some other dealers are not eligible for the old credit, but may be eligible for the new credit given they comply with the limitations above. 

As always, we are here to help. Please reach out to your advisor team or email luke@humaninvesting.com if you have any questions.

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Many small businesses are behind.

There are several retirement solutions that can help you secure your future and that of your employees, but the decision-making process can be challenging.

A survey of nearly 2,000 small business owners in 2017 found that over a third (34%) don't have a retirement plan. The main reason for this cited (by 37% of those respondents) was that they could not generate enough revenue to save. Another 18% of the business owners without retirement savings are looking at selling the businesses as a retirement plan.

Many small business owners avoid or are unaware of the crucial elements of planning for their futures. Here are a few questions to ask yourself before deciding on a retirement plan:

Do you have employees or expect to in the future?

Is it important that employees can contribute to a retirement plan?

Is your priority higher contributions or ease of administration?

Would you like plan contributions to be deductible as a business expense?

What retirement plan options do you have?

With help from Vanguard, we put together a one-sheeter that gives details and considerations on several small business retirement plans, including Small Plan 401(k), Individual 401(k), SEP IRA, Simple IRA, Traditional IRA, and Roth IRA.

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Source: Vanguard

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Keep in mind that the state requires all employers in Oregon to facilitate OregonSaves if they don't offer a retirement plan for their employees. The deadline for employers with four or fewer employees is March 1st, 2023. The rules are identical to a Roth IRA, where employees contribute post-tax dollars to the plan and distribute savings tax-free.

If your business already sponsors or wants to sponsor a 401(k) or another qualified retirement plan, you are not required to participate in OregonSaves but must certify the exemption online. Exemption certificates are valid for three years from the filing date.

Employers who don’t sponsor a retirement plan or participate in OregonSaves by the appointed deadline may be penalized $100 per affected employee. The maximum fine per year is $5,000. More details can be found here: OregonSaves

Which plan is best for you?

401(k): Best retirement plan for large and established small businesses.

Safe Harbor 401(k): Best retirement plan for small businesses with less than 100 workers to avoid expensive annual compliance testing.

Solo 401(k): Best retirement plan for maximizing contributions.

SEP IRA: Best retirement plan for a sole proprietor who wants easy administration.

Simple IRA: Best retirement plan for employee participation in funding the retirement account.

Profit Sharing Plan: Best retirement plan for business owners who want more 401(k) contributions and tax benefits.

The responsibilities of owning and operating a small business can be overwhelming, but having the right retirement plan and advocates on your side can make all the difference. If you would like assistance making the best decision for your business, we invite you to schedule an appointment on the calendar below.

Source: Best Retirement Plans for Small Business

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On November 5th of 2021, Nike stock closed at its most recent all-time high of $177.51. Much has changed since that time, with the stock price dropping over 38% to $109.12 as of 7/22/22. This has made financial decisions much more challenging for Nike leaders that hold and receive significant amounts of Nike stock as part of their compensation and benefits. Many rely on their stock for their financial goals and life plans like retiring, paying for college, paying off debt, contributing to charitable causes, and purchasing a vacation home or a new car.

Uncertainty and concern

Those decisions are now met with uncertainty and concern over the significant decrease in their Nike shares compared to just seven months ago. So, the understandable questions are starting to arise:

“Should I sell some or all of my stock now?”

“Should I delay my financial goals and life plans?”

“Is there another way to fund those goals without selling my stock?”

“How long do you think it will take to recover?”

Each individual has a unique financial situation, and the right decision is not the same for everyone.

To help Nike clients through these discussions, we thought providing information and context to the question of how long it will take for the stock to recover would be helpful.

While we cannot predict the future, we can look to past situations to get a sense of general time frames, which can help the decision-making process.

How Long Will this Down Period Last?

In examining the last five times Nike stock dropped by at least 20% from its high, we noted the periods to recover to their all-time high.

The average time for recovery has been just under one year at 339 days. You will notice from the table above that the recovery time varies widely from as quick as two months to as long as 20 months. Another interesting observation is that over the past 15 years, there has been a 20%+ drop in Nike stock every 2-4 years.

This most recent -20% downturn in Nike happened on February 11, 2022, about five months ago. So how much longer will this down period continue? No one truly knows, but if we go off of the history of the past 15 years, you should be prepared for up to another 15 months.

So, what should Nike leaders consider and assess now? Below are some tips.

TIP #1: Assess and Understand your Time Frame

Having enough time to be patient and wait for a potential recovery is one of the keys to the current environment. Take time to assess if you can hold tight or if you have very specific timelines or deadlines like a Stock Option expiration.

TIP #2: Take Note of your Risk Appetite

Even if you have the time to wait for a potential recovery, it may not be worth it if it is causing an undue amount of stress and anxiety. In this case, we find that developing a well-thought-out selling plan, where you sell part of your stock at different prices and time periods, can relieve some of the concern.

TIP #3: Develop a Contingency Plan

If the stock takes longer to recover than expected, identify other places where you can access cash in the short-term to meet those financial goals.  Examples can include: using existing cash in the bank, the conservative part of a taxable investment account, a home equity line of credit, or a portfolio loan.

TIP #4: Pick the Most Optimal Shares for any Sales

When the time is right to sell, are you picking ESPP, RSUs, or Stock Options?  We recommend carefully selecting the right type and exact shares to minimize taxes, maintain your long-term upside, and fit your time frame.

By looking into the past, we can see that downturns and recoveries in Nike stock are pretty standard and have happened regularly. We recognize that this historical data doesn’t mean it will be the same this time, but it does give you a sense of what it could look like.

“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.”

-Mark Twain

If you need help assessing your current Nike stock and how it fits into your personal goals and situation, you can reach Marc at marc@humaninvesting.com.

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Taking a distribution from a tax-qualified retirement plan, like a 401(k) before age 59.5, is generally subject to a 10% penalty for early withdrawal. The exceptions to paying this 10% penalty are:

• Hardship distributions

• Rule of 55

Are you familiar with how the Rule of 55 works? If you want to retire early, this blog post is significant for you.

What is the Rule of 55?

The Rule of 55 is an IRS provision that allows employees who leave their job on or after age 55 to take penalty-free distributions from their retirement accounts. It’s a life hack! Typically, individuals would face a 10% early-withdrawal penalty if they access their retirement account before age 59.5. The 10% penalty and account accessibility are two of the reasons why people plan to work until at least age 59.5. 

If you are someone who is thinking about retiring early, the following Rule of 55 requirements are necessary:

1. You leave your job (voluntarily or involuntarily) in or after the year you turn 55 years old.

2. Your plan must allow for withdrawals before age 59.5.

3. Your dollars must be kept in your employer’s retirement plan. If you roll them over to an IRA, you lose the Rule of 55 protection.

4. You will likely want your plan to allow partial distributions when you are terminated.

Access to your retirement account at age 55 is available for all employees with an employer-sponsored retirement account. However, if you are considering retiring after age 55 and using funds from this retirement account, you must check whether your plan allows partial distributions. This feature is an opt-in feature for employers to select. We recommend that you work closely with your recordkeeper to ensure you can take advantage of the Rule of 55 in a way that benefits you.

3 Examples of the Rule of 55

Look at a few examples of employees with partial distributions compared to employees without partial distributions allowed in their plan.

Example 1: Partial Distributions Allowed

Danielle can take any amount from her PDX 401(k) account. For example, in October 2022, she can request $30,000. She doesn’t have to take anything out in 2023. She could take another $65,000 out in January 2024.

EXAMPLE 2: Partial Distributions Disallowed

Martin’s employer-sponsored retirement plan does not permit partial distributions. If he wants to access his retirement account at age 57 without incurring a 10% early-withdrawal penalty, he would have to withdraw the entire $450,000. This would result in reporting $450,000 of taxable income for the year of his distribution. Given the tax bracket optimization strategies that exist during retirement years, this may not be Martin’s best solution for accessing dollars before age 59.5.

A couple of alternative solutions for Martin are:

1. Ideally, Martin would have a cash-flow plan to support his expenses until he reaches age 59.5.

2. Initiate a direct rollover of his $450,000 retirement account into a IRA account. Then take distributions as needed but expect to pay a 10% penalty on these dollars. Before paying a 10% penalty on an early-distribution from a IRA, we would recommend that Martin review other cashflow options he may have.

Example 3: Partial Distributions Disallowed

Rebecca, age 56, has $67,000 saved in her most recent 401(k) account with ABC Company. She also has $700,000 saved in her previous 401(k) account with XYZ Company. Neither of these retirement plans allow for partial distributions.

Rebecca retired at age 56 from ABC Company, so she can take the entire $67,000 balance out in one lump sum distribution. She will not owe a 10% penalty on these dollars due to the Rule of 55.

If she were to access any of her $700,000 saved in her previous 401(k) account with XYZ Company before age 59.5, then she would incur a 10% penalty. Not to mention the $700,000 is sitting in a plan that disallows partial distributions so that would be significant taxable income to report in the same tax year. Similar to the example above, Rebecca may consider initiating a direct rollover of her $700,000 into a IRA account for more flexible distribution choices.

What About Other 401(k) Accounts from Previous Jobs?

To qualify for the Rule of 55, you must be terminated as an employee on or after age 55. Therefore, if you have multiple retirement accounts, the only ones that will qualify for a penalty-free distribution between ages 55 and 59.5 are accounts with your termination date reflecting that age range.

One consideration is to roll over a previous retirement account into your current account before you retire. We recommend speaking with your recordkeeper to confirm that your retirement plan features are designed so rollover sources can be accessible by partial distributions.

For example, if Danielle from above had another 401(k) account, she could have rolled that into her PDX 401(k) account before retiring. All the dollars in the account would be eligible for Rule of 55 distributions.

What if I Decide to go Back to Work but have Taken Distributions Already?

Going back to work after you have taken a Rule of 55 distribution should not result in a 10% penalty. If you go back to work for the same company, then you may lose the ability to access funds as an active employee. However, your distributions will not be impacted if you go back to work at another organization.

How are Rule of 55 Distributions Tracked for Tax Reasons?

Custodians and recordkeepers are responsible for providing a Form 1099-R. This tax form reports any distributions from a retirement account. If you take a distribution under the Rule of 55, you would expect to see code 2 in box 7 of your 1099-R form. Code 2 specifies the following:

2 - Early distribution, exception applies (under age 59.5)

If your 1099-R form includes Code 2 in box 7, you will not owe a 10% penalty. Before you initiate a withdrawal between ages 55-59.5, we recommend confirming your record keeper will issue the 1099 in this format.

What Other Resources do you Have?

Retirement is a transition that only happens once in life. You probably haven’t retired before, and you likely won’t retire again. Retirement transitions involve several financial planning considerations and we wanted to conclude this article with additional resources that may be helpful to you:

Your Pre-Retirement Checklist

The 3 Questions to Ask to Build a Solid Retirement Income Plan

Why an IRA Makes More Sense in Retirement than your 401(k)

While the articles are supplemental information, we believe the best way to prepare for your upcoming retirement is to collaborate with our team at Human Investing. Please use this scheduling link to meet with our team to review your unique financial landscape before you start planning your retirement celebration(s): Schedule here.

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Summertime in full swing often means summer jobs for many young people, especially high school and college-age students. Earned income can provide a terrific opportunity for young people to save, think about their future, and begin practicing financial independence.

High school and college students motivated to save and invest can utilize Roth IRA accounts to get the most out of their dollars. Compound interest in action is a pretty magical thing to behold, and the earlier you can earn compound interest working for you, the better! Compound interest, tax benefits, and learning lifelong financial lessons can make for an incredible summer job experience.

Here is why opening a Roth IRA account is an excellent option for those spending their summer working as a high school or college student. 

Tax-Free Benefits

We are big fans of Roth IRAs here at Human Investing. Because the money used to contribute is after-tax dollars, it grows tax free and is not taxed down the road when you take it out…..We love this!

The younger your child starts a Roth IRA account, the more time their tax-free dollar amount in the account has to grow.

Compound Interest Growth

Youth isn’t wasted on the young. In Beth Kobliner’s book Make Your Kid a Money Genius (Even If You're Not): A Parents' Guide for Kids 3 to 23, she uses the following example:  

“Let's say [your teen] puts $1,000 of his summer earnings into a Roth IRA for each of the four years from age 15 to age 18. If he stops and never puts in another penny, but lets the money grow, by age 65 he'll have about $107,000, if the money earns 7% a year. 

But if your kid waits until age 25 and then puts away $1,000 for each of the four years until age 28 and stops, that account will only be worth a little over $50,000 by age 65.”

By taking advantage of a Roth IRA early on (in this example, ages 15-18), you can double your money compared to starting in your twenties. 

Roth IRA Specifics

In 2022, the maximum annual Roth IRA contribution is $6,000 a person for those under 50 years old who are single and making under $129,000 a year.

For those under 18 years old:

For children under the age of 18, they would need to open a Minor or Custodial Roth IRA account. 

Money put in this account must be earned, not gifted (this includes birthday and graduation gifts), and the adult who opens this account for the minor controls the assets until the minor reaches the age of majority (which is 18). 

Adults can also contribute. If your teen earns $3,000 at their summer job, you could either contribute the full amount they earned and let them spend their money, or you could contribute a percentage of your teen’s earnings (like 50%). 

It’s important to note that parents can contribute the money to a teen’s Roth IRA if their teen earned at least that amount. For example, if your teen made $2000, the most that could be contributed to the Roth IRA is $2000 total.

More info here: https://www.schwab.com/ira/custodial-ira 

For those over 18 years old:

For children 18 years or older, their Roth IRA account is now no different than the Roth IRA their parents might have. This account has the same requirements and restrictions as any other non-minor Roth IRA.

Building habits for the long-term

Here are a few ideas from parents on our team about approaching this opportunity with your child who has a summer job. 

As tempting as it is to spend those paychecks on something more tangible (a car, clothes, trips with friends), our children will need to understand the importance of financial independence, hard work, and investing for the future. Old habits die hard, so the earlier they learn these lessons, the better off they will be in the long run! 

You can incentivize your child’s savings by matching their Roth IRA contribution (up to their contribution limit). You can also lead by example. Share with your child why you save and what your financial “why” is. Share your hopes and dreams for their financial future and how their Roth IRA can be a means to this end. 

If you want to read more about Roth IRAs, check out our other blog post by fellow HI team member Nicole: Is a Roth IRA the Right Account for you?

Feel free to reach out to our Human Investing team if you would like more information about Roth IRA accounts. 

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April, May, and June 2022 have been long, emotional months. The purpose of our charts of the quarter posts is to provide financial updates, and it may be no surprise that this post is focused on interest rates, housing prices, and market volatility.

1: Interest rates increased by HALF A PERCENT in May 2022

On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by ½ a percent. While ½ of a percent may feel insignificant, this was the most significant interest hike in more than two decades.

What does an increased interest rate mean for you? It means that borrowing money from the bank is more expensive. It has also historically been good news for your saving and investment accounts.

Specifically, this chart summarizes investment returns since 1990 after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by at least ½ a percent. As you can see, on average, stocks returned +20.5%, and bonds returned +13.8% one year after the interest rate hike. Only time will tell what happens, but it wouldn’t surprise us if returns got better in the coming months.

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Source: Morningstar

2: How long does it take to get your money back?

During Q2 2022 – from April 1 – June 30, the S&P 500 returned -16%. Checking your account balance hasn’t been a pleasant experience in Q2 ’22.

Most people want to know the answer to the question, “how long is it going to take to get my money back?” Since this was a recurring question this quarter, Andrew Gladhill wrote a blog post called Payback Periods: How Long to Make Your Money Back. We encourage you to read the full article, but we selected one chart to share from this post.

This chart states that 95% of the time, it takes nine months for investors to, once again, reach another all-time high in their account. Said differently, most of the time, the market rewards investors who stay invested for at least nine months. What does this mean for you?

Remaining invested and, in the case of 401(k) accounts, continuing to invest your dollars is the easiest way to see your account balance recover. This can be an uncomfortable experience, and we recommend reaching out to our team if you feel uneasy or want to brainstorm ways to adjust your account strategies.

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Source: CFA Institute

3: Are we heading into a recession?

Source: Google

Are we heading into a recession? Are you feeling worried, fearful, and frustrated? As this chart illustrates, the Google Trend for the search engine “recession” since the beginning of 2022 has quadrupled.

Everyone is looking for an answer that doesn’t exist. We cannot predict if there will be a recession or how long it will last. We know that recessions are a regular, unavoidable part of economic cycles.

Here are a few questions to ask yourself in preparation for a recession:

Do I have job security?
Does my spouse have job security?
What fixed expenses do I have? (Examples may include mortgage payments, car payments, daycare payments, and recurring health care payments)
Do I have emergency savings to pay for my fixed expenses?
Would a recession change my current investment strategy?
Does anyone really know if there is a recession coming?

We also know that compared to the recent past, US Households currently have more cash and cash equivalents in their bank accounts. This chart, dating back to 2015, shows the rise of cash on hand for US Households. We may be more prepared for a recessionary period than we think we are. As the previous recession preparation questions suggest, it is essential to have liquidity during a recessionary period to help pay for fixed costs, protect against a loss of income, and to avoid selling investments while the markets are volatile.

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Source: A Wealth of Common Sense

If you need help answering any of the questions above, please contact your team of advisors at Human Investing.

4: Mortgage rates doubled in Q2 2022

Mortgage rates, as you may have seen, surged in Q2’22. Average mortgage rates went from 3% to 6%, which is the most significant one-week increase in interest rates since 1987. At about 6%, 30-year mortgage rates are back to where they were in November 2008. 

We wanted to share this chart which illustrates the increase in mortgage payments since 2015. As you can see, monthly mortgage payments have increased over time, but 2022 has experienced a remarkable surge in average monthly mortgage payments.

Let’s see how the rest of summer unfolds. Suppose you are in the market to buy a home. In that case, we highly recommend understanding all the costs associated with purchasing a home, including closing costs, property taxes, monthly payments, and repairs.

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Source: Redfin

For a more in-depth overview, read this Redfin article.

Our team is always here for you should you have any questions or concerns about your financial landscape.

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Inflation can lay waste to portfolios and wages, which is one of many reasons why inflation is concerning for laborers and investors alike. Some speculate that the rise in inflation is from supply chain congestion, resulting from labor shortage due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Others hypothesize that a flood of liquidity into the global economy, which stems from quantitative easing dating back to the financial crisis in 2007-2009, is the cause of rising prices. Regardless of the reason, the concern is that gains in wages and market appreciation are muted, or worse, erased, by an escalation in prices for goods and services.

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Inflation’s History

It has been three decades since we've seen inflation at current levels and even longer since inflation averaged double digits (several different times in the mid-70s to early 80s)[1]. Clients of our firm who remember the 1970s recall long gas lines, borrowing for a home purchase at 15%, and investing in treasury bonds at over 10%.

Consider this: in October of 1981, the 30-year mortgage rate was 18.45%[2]. As I type, that sort of rate seems almost unthinkable, yet it's true. To illustrate how it would impact the average homeowner or investor today, imagine a $500,000 home purchase with a 20% down payment. An individual would be financing $400,000 and be left with a $6,175 payment!

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How Does Inflation Work?

Inflation works in a similar way with food, gas, and other products and services we use regularly. Inflation can be viewed as a tax that leaves consumers with less to spend at the end of each month. With consumers facing higher prices, the dollars they spend must go to the staples such as food, housing, and gas—while potentially having less to spend on discretionary items such as travel and entertainment.

To combat inflation, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) will typically increase short-term borrowing costs on member banks—which in turn, trickles down to the consumer. Managing inflation is a primary objective of the Federal Reserve. The inflation target for the Federal Reserve is 2%. With both headline and core inflation trending well above those targets, aggressive rate increases are warranted. Surely the invasion of the Ukraine by Russia has complicated the Fed’s rate decision. My previous article “War and the Market: What Does History Teach Us?” discusses this topic further. Despite the concern over the war in Ukraine, the question is not if the Fed will raise rates. Instead, it’s a matter of how fast the Fed will hike rates and when they will stop.

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Our Recommendations

First, revisit your budget. See where you are seeing the biggest increases as some individuals are impacted far more than others. For example, my brother is a sports fisherman who is impacted much more by the price of fuel than I am with a five-mile commute to work. At the same time, a family of seven will feel food inflation much more than my parents, who have been empty nesters for almost 30 years. Secondly, once you have revised your budget, a conversation with your advisor can be warranted. For some who are living off a fixed income, the process will require pairing back or needing larger distributions from your portfolio. For others, it may prompt a change in your investment mix. While for many clients, the process may entail staying the course.

Investors whose investment horizon is long-term should continue to invest in a diversified, low-cost, equity-leaning portfolio. However, for investors who are either uneasy with market gyrations or have a more condensed investment timeline, multiple levers can be pulled to potentially position the portfolio to hold up well during inflationary times. Many experts agree that treasury bills and private real estate hold up well during inflation. [3],[4] It is also important to note that during inflation cycles, equities do well; however, volatility can increase, making maintaining a portfolio heavy on stocks problematic for investors whose emotions can get the best of them.

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Guidance for Those who are Worried

If you are prone to worry about your investments, there are several actions to consider. First, consider looking at your investments less often. This does not mean a “head in the sand” approach. Instead, if you are looking at your portfolio a few times per day, consider a few times per week. Or, if it’s weekly, consider checking in on your accounts monthly. Second, look at history for context surrounding the volatility. What you will find is that the market, on average, experiences a 14% intra-year drops since 1980. This may not provide you all the peace you want , but having perspective on what is normal can be helpful in curbing emotions. To further combat mixing emotions with investments, read “How to Avoid the Investing Cycle of Emotions” by our own Will Kellar, CFP®. Finally, if the volatility is cause for sleepless nights, you may be someone that needs to take less risk, meaning a conversation with your advisor is warranted.

Because the course of this inflationary cycle is unknown, it is essential for all investors to track their spending to determine what impact inflation has had on budgets. For some, there is plenty of discretionary capital to absorb the increase prices; however, for others, it may be necessary to tighten the belt and prioritize essential spending, to minimize the impact of elevated costs.

[1] U.S. Inflation Calculator

[2] History of Mortgage Interest Rates

[3] Fama, E. F., & Schwert, G. W. (1977). Asset returns and inflation. Journal of financial economics, 5(2), 115-146.

[4] Crawford, G., Liew, J. K. S., & Marks, A. (2013). Investing Under Inflation Risk. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 123-135.

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If you have feedback for us, have questions, or would like to hear more on other topics we’ve not already covered, please email us directly at hi@humaninvesting.com. We cherish the emails and questions and look forward to connecting with you soon.

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Home prices and home equity have increased substantially over the last few years, which may leave you wondering if you should sell your home. Wouldn’t selling your home be even more tempting if buying another home wasn’t so difficult?

If you are thinking about selling a home, then you are probably focused on market timing, payments, moving and lifestyle changes. One thing you may have overlooked are the tax considerations of selling a home.

You may be thinking, “wait, isn’t the sale of my main home tax free?”  

It depends.

Primary homes are considered capital assets, like investments such as stocks and bonds. Capital assets are normally subject to capital gains taxes when they are sold. However, primary homes may qualify for a favorable capital gains treatment called the Section 121 exclusion.

For most homeowners, the Section 121 exclusion is one of the greatest benefits of the current tax code. Are you aware of how this exclusion works and how to ensure you qualify?

Start With your Capital Gains

Before making the decision to sell your home, start by calculating your capital gains. A gain on the sale of a primary residence is calculated as such:

Sale price - (Purchase price + Improvements) = Capital Gain

Breaking Down the Section 121 Capital Gain Exclusion and its Qualifications

The 2-out-of-5 year capital gain exemption is crucial for homeowners to understand.

The IRS allows homeowners to exclude part of your home sale from capital gain taxes if you’ve owned your home and lived in it as your primary residence for two of the past five years. The 24 months do not have to be consecutive months, but rather a total of 24 months within a 5-year period. If you qualify for the 2-out-of-5 year rule, then you have the following gain exclusion when selling your home:

The profit mentioned above does not include outstanding mortgage. If there is an outstanding mortgage on the home, this will not impact the Section 121 capital gain exclusion amount. Please read example #1 below to see how mortgages do not impact the overall capital gain.

Partial Gain Exclusions and Benefit Timing

Even if you haven’t lived in your home two out of five of the years prior to selling the home, there may be a way to qualify for a partial gain exclusion. For example, you could be eligible for a partial gain exclusion if you had to move due to work-related reasons, health-related reasons, or for unforeseen circumstances such as divorce or giving birth to two or more children from the same pregnancy.

Homeowners can benefit from this Section 121 capital gain exclusion once every two years. For example, if you have two homes and lived in both for at least two of the past 5 years, both homes are not eligible for the capital gains exclusion at the same time.

Four Examples of the Section 121 exclusion

EXAMPLE #1: SINGLE-FILING TAXPAYER

Jordan purchased a home in 2016 for $350,000 and sold it in 2022 for $560,000.

Jordan lived in her home for these 6 consecutive years. When she listed her home for sale, Jordan still had an outstanding mortgage of $75,000 on her home. As mentioned above, mortgages are not part of calculating the total Section 121 gain exclusion. Jordan has a total gain of $210,000 ($560,000 sale price - $350,000 purchase price). For a single taxpayer, none of this gain is subject to taxes because it is less than the exclusion amount of $250,000. Time for Jordan to enjoy her celebration of choice.

EXAMPLE #2: COUPLE FILING TAXES JOINTLY

Marta and Paul purchased a home in 1999 for $350,000 and sold it in 2022 for $1,000,000.

Marta and Paul raised their children in this home for the past 23 years, except for in 2006 when they rented their home for a sabbatical year. The total gain on the sale of the home is $650,000. They will only pay capital gains on $150,000, since $500,000 is subject to the Section 121 gain exclusion.

EXAMPLE #3: VACATION HOME TURNED TO A PRIMARY RESIDENCE

Samuel and Taylor bought a vacation home on the coast in 2010 for $300,000. They used the home as a vacation home for the first 10 years, and then converted it to their primary residence in 2020. Samuel and Taylor would like to sell their home at some point in 2022 for $500,000.

The first 10 years of ownership are considered non-qualified use. Non-qualified use is any period after 2008 when the home was not used as a primary residence. Examples of non-qualified use are vacation homes, rental properties, investment properties, or homes used in a trade of business. Homeowners cannot take the full tax-free exclusion under Section 121 if a property was held and used for non-qualified use prior to it being held as a primary residence (qualified use).

In this example, 2/12ths of the total $200,000 of capital gain can be excluded from taxable income ($33,333) as qualified under Section 121 and 10/12ths ($167,666) of the total capital gain must be included in taxable income as non-qualified use under Section 121.

*There are some exceptions to non-qualified use. They are listed under the Business or Rental Use of Home section.

EXAMPLE #4: HOMEOWNERS TURNED TO LANDLORDS

Miguel and Jasmine purchased their primary home in 2012 for $500,000. They moved out of the home and started renting it in 2020. They sold their home for $1,000,000 in 2022.

Since they wanted to utilize the Section 121 gain exclusion, they had to sell the home in 2022. To articulate the importance this sale timing, here is a detailed timeline:

2018 – home used as their primary home

2019 – home used as their primary home

2020 – home used as a rental home

2021 – home used as a rental home

2022 – home used as a rental home for most of the year and sold for $1,000,000 on May 15, 2022

Since they sold this home during 2022, which meets the 2-out-of-5 year exclusion rule, they can utilize the full tax-free exclusion on the $500,000 gain. ** They may owe tax on the depreciation recapture.

However, if they waited to sell their home until 2023, Miguel and Jasmine would pay capital gains tax on the entire $500,000 gain since they wouldn’t have qualified for the 2-out-of-5 year exclusion rule in this case. As this example illustrates, being mindful of your timeline for selling a home is critical.

Tax Planning for your Home(s) IS CRUCIAL IN MAXIMIZING WHAT YOU CAN POCKET

As you may have gathered from this blog post, buying and selling homes may involve complicated tax planning. Given the prolonged seller’s market, our team has worked on several tax planning scenarios and strategies for different clients. If you would like to speak to us about your own unique scenario, please reach out to us at hi@humaninvesting.com or 503-905-3100.

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As I write this in May 2022, most major asset classes are down for the year. Stocks, bonds, foreign or domestic, it’s hard to find an investment producing positive returns right now. Since no investor likes to see the balance in their account drop, we have received an uptick in client inquiries about whether it’s worth staying invested. The short answer is yes; we still recommend staying invested. Markets have historically recovered, and grown to new highs. Panicking and selling your investments when they’ve gone down in price is unhelpful for achieving your long-term investment goals. Staying invested when the markets are roiling is easy to say, hard to do.

If you’re interested in a longer, more data driven response about why you should stay invested, keep reading. A lot of client’s concerns boil down to “How long is it going to take for me to make my money back?”. Let’s call this amount of time it takes to hit a new all-time high for a portfolio the “payback period”.

For the returns, I pulled the Ibbotson SBBI US Large-Cap Stocks for equity, and the Ibbotson SBBI US Intermediate-term (5-year) Government Bonds for fixed income. This data compiles the monthly returns from January 1926 to March 2022. I took a 100% equity portfolio (100/0) and added 10% bonds to compare different allocations (i.e. 60/40 is 60% equity 40% fixed income). I assumed monthly rebalancing.

Source: CFA Institute

As the graph shows, the more conservative your allocation, the shorter the time-frame necessary to make your money back. The most aggressive allocations (100/0 and 90/10) can take about 15 years to make your money back. A more balanced investor (40/60 to 80/20) would expect around 7 years as the worst case to make their money back.

I want to emphasize these numbers reflect the absolute worst scenarios over nearly a century of investing. We could always see a new worst case. Typical experiences are usually not as extreme. Even just looking at the 2nd longest time-frame to make your money back, and the longest payback is just over 6 years.

Source: CFA Institute

In most cases, you will make money in a relatively short amount of time if you remain invested. The final graph shows how long your investment horizon needs to be to have made money 95% of the time. As you can see, a majority of the time markets reward investors who stay invested for at least 9 months. That 5% of times where you haven’t made money in 9 months, we have seen some major draw-downs that took years to recover from. Make sure you have positioned yourself in a way where you are comfortable with all possible outcomes.

Source: CFA Institute

So, what do we do with this information? Some perspective for us all:

Understand the Time-frame you’re Investing For

If you’re not accessing funds for 15+ years, you shouldn’t worry about how long it takes to make the money back.

• If you are investing in a retirement account, keep doing that.

• If you move money monthly into a brokerage account, keep doing that.

If you are planning on accessing the funds in 10 years or less, consider incorporating bonds in your allocation to reduce risk, and shorten the time frame to recover a loss in value for your portfolio.

If you’re currently accessing your funds, have a financial plan to understand how you handle downturns in the markets and still achieve your financial goals

• Strategies for this include having a certain amount of cash on hand to cover market downturns, adjusting your budget as needed, etc.

Stay Invested

When you see your account balance down, know that remaining invested is the best way to recover lost value. Most of the time, you won’t have to wait for years to see your balance recover.

Plan in a way that Helps you Sleep at Night

If you can’t handle the thought of waiting seven years to make your money back, a 70/30 allocation may not be right for you. Have a financial plan in place that accounts for the worst-case scenarios, so you know you’ll be able to ride out any volatility in the markets.

Understand History can Only Tell us so Much

The markets could always find a new worst-case scenario. Use history as a guide for setting expectations, not absolute certainty of what is to come.

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